HoarfrostHubb Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 No matter what, above normal for Boston is nearly impossible. The elephant slept in June. And he is a light sleeper. Damned elephant. He hasn't been mentioned much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Warminista phail. Overnight runs continue the theme of a trough setting up over NE. The transient warmth later this week will be kicked outta here quickly.Nice. LOL..you have no idea how to read those maps if that's what you think they show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 LOL..you have no idea how to read those maps if that's what you think they show Wait, you're right, that clearly screams death torch. Day after day of 100* temps. Most won't survive. Tragic really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 The euro ensembles have a few cool days for sure near d10. Near the 4th of July we may warm up again, but still troughy looking in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 18, 2012 Author Share Posted June 18, 2012 LOL..you have no idea how to read those maps if that's what you think they show Euro Ens and operational runs of the Euro and GFS continue to become more impressive with the trough and temperature departures as the transient high positive departures leave. Hopefully clouds and marine flow do not make it even cooler. Full sun days should be near or below normal but with abnormally low heights and a cold pool, clouds and showers are possible at anytime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Will be nice to get a few cool days in here after his week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Nor' easter on the 24th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Nor' easter on the 24th? Hopefully. Ensembles have a low around too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 What an ugly pattern to end June Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 What an ugly pattern to end June It never fails..whatever you post..the opposite happens..so this is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Hopefully. Ensembles have a low around too. Yeah that could be a really cold day if we end up with a low to our SSE...heat looks bottled up to the SW over the next 10 days after this coming warmup...maybe it tries to make another run at us near the 4th...but ensembles aren't really screaming that either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Warminista phail. Overnight runs continue the theme of a trough setting up over NE. The transient warmth later this week will be kicked outta here quickly.Nice. Seems when taking the 3 week average this will be a large scale sea-saw sort of scenario, where we started out with a trough situated near-by, then transiently flipped to a negative PNAP, only to "perhaps" go back to a +PNAP. Here is what I find interesting. The summer PNA correlation is almost non-existent. In fact, CDC doesn't even apply a coefficient value to its Cross-Correlation table found here: http://www.esrl.noaa.../corr.table.jun Among other things, this means you cannot logically assume a re-curving typhoon translates/transmits a signal through the Pacific domain and into North America. On a fundamental level, the re-curve correlation becomes so because of forced redistribution of R-wave spacing, once the enormous latent heat off the re-curving TC is introduced/absorbed into the circulation system as a whole. Since the baser R-wave structure of the hemisphere all but completely breaks down in the summer months, that is why the PNA is not calculated. And, why there is no expectation of forcing an R-wave, spatial-temporal response. The opposite is true in the winter. That said, there are no absolutes in the atmosphere, either. Atmospheric correlations should really be thought of as "less correlated" as opposed to "not correlated" during on and/or off times. These are rules ultimately invented by man, because man has invented science, and science requires discrete boundaries. Unfortunately, nature does not work that way in reality; it may seem like a paradox to use a system of observation, test, to theory to prove every action and reaction in the cosmos exists along an utterly smooth spectrum (and perhaps it really is), but it is important to remember that the order of science does not necessarily describe the order of the system, but that the system is studied in an orderly fashion. How that digressive ism applies to the current weather: The gradients all around from the Pac relay into North America appears a bit anomalously steep for this time of year. The steepness of the gradient means that the circulation as a whole is perhaps a bit more sensitive to latent heat bursts. The CPC PNA monitoring shows a tightly clustered rapid rise in the PNA in about 4 or so days, and seeing the 00z Euro have a strongly signaled +PNAP orientation to the flow in it's late middle ranges, that seems a bit too coincidental for my taste. We had a strong negative NAO kick in a couple weeks ago, now labors to recover to neutral. It may ultimately do so in about 10 days to 2 weeks - up in the air. Meanwhile, the PNA sank to -2SD during that time. The idea of transient heat making it to 40N, while E of 100W, is actually a very good teleconnector fit for rising NAO/negative PNA, that is in the process of reversing. If the current progs (based on the GFS cluster are right), we simply relay one coolish pattern into the next, with a 2 to 3 day revolving door in between (that's the heat). Whether that PNA is currently correlate-able or not aside, the MJO is fairly robust in Phase 8 ...heading into 1. That combined with a modestly -NAO (at least for the time being), shouldn't shock anyone if -PNAP takes place - its the desirable structure. I don't buy, however, a stem-wound nor'easter though. The Euro does that in its extended and it rarely verifies. It sniffs out any tendency at all for digging heights into the NE latitudes, and then creates big huge stench out of it. What verifies is usually just a brief stink. For those wanting heat to have more duration, I think we need to calm the MJO and get the NAO to rise solidly positive. It may be difficult to do the latter, as the AMO is currently very tripolar looking, and at least for the winter, that is strong correlation on a -NAO. Not sure about summer though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 when was your last -5 month? i can't remember the stats off the top of my head, but +5 months have been much easier to come by than -5 months Months with 5F+ departures are quite uncommon (and one in summer even moreso.) In 168 months at my current location, only 13 have had that great a departure, 7 above and 6 below: 6 in Jan, 3 each way. Most recent + in 2010; - in 2009. 3 in Feb, + in 2010, - in 2003, 2007. 2 in Mar, + in 2010, 2012. 1 in May, - in 2005. 1 in Dec, + in 2006. Edit: +20s for Pete? Wouldn't that require something like 100/68? Seems less than likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Euro is ridiculous for late June. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Euro is ridiculous for late June. Wow. i doubt a sub 1000mb low is going to be over us next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 It never fails..whatever you post..the opposite happens..so this is good. Euro supports me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 idk...the end of the euro is pretty damn miserable. The ens try to seal the deal for a below normal June toward the end of the month too for BOS. The trough axis came more west. The op may be a bit extreme, but the high heat for the month may be gone after Friday. Maybe we make another run at much warmer weather toward the 4th? The euro ensembles have a few cool days for sure near d10. Near the 4th of July we may warm up again, but still troughy looking in the east. Euro Ens and operational runs of the Euro and GFS continue to become more impressive with the trough and temperature departures as the transient high positive departures leave. Hopefully clouds and marine flow do not make it even cooler. Full sun days should be near or below normal but with abnormally low heights and a cold pool, clouds and showers are possible at anytime. Nor' easter on the 24th? Hopefully. Ensembles have a low around too. Yeah that could be a really cold day if we end up with a low to our SSE...heat looks bottled up to the SW over the next 10 days after this coming warmup...maybe it tries to make another run at us near the 4th...but ensembles aren't really screaming that either. LOL..you have no idea how to read those maps if that's what you think they show Hmmm, Evidently you're the only one qualified to read the maps as the rest of us are in general agreement as to what is depicted. Perhaps you should try to listen and learn instead of mindlessly beating the torch gong. That way you can avoid being humiliated like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Looks like it could be a very wet and cool pattern early next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Looks like it could be a very wet and cool pattern early next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Euro and ensembles are wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Euro and ensembles are wet. Yup. With that trough draped over us, we have the potential for pieces of energy to rotate through and give us chances of showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Euro and ensembles are wet. Maybe wet//but cool implies NE flow and 50's and 60;s..I think you meant humid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Maybe wet//but cool implies NE flow and 50's and 60;s..I think you meant humid 50s are very hard this time of year. Probably 60s or maybe low 70s if we warm sector. I'm just saying how it looks now. I wouldn't lock it in quite yet, but it could be damp and cool. Just hope the low isn't south of us, because high 50s won't be impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 50s are very hard this time of year. Probably 60s or maybe low 70s if we warm sector. I'm just saying how it looks now. I wouldn't lock it in quite yet, but it could be damp and cool. Just hope the low isn't south of us, because high 50s won't be impossible. Like Ryan said..as bad as the Euro has been..probably should toss it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Like Ryan said..as bad as the Euro has been..probably should toss it The ensembles have been great and they show it. It;s all about where the low develops and 7 days out..there are questions. Euro ensembles are nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 19, 2012 Author Share Posted June 19, 2012 Looks worse as far as sensible weather than I thought. Hopefully the Ens are overstating the cold and wet. GGEM ENS are cool right up to the 4 th. no heat in sight on any long lead ENS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Looks worse as far as sensible weather than I thought. Hopefully the Ens are overstating the cold and wet. GGEM ENS are cool right up to the 4 th. no heat in sight on any long lead ENS. Truly the BSE if this comes to fruition. I think we can all agree with that. If people want to go to the beach, Miami is only a plane ride away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 LOL the gfs is so ridiculous with the trough for next week. Blocking is massive over the top as well. I definitely favor a stretch of negative anomalies and unsettled weather chances for next week, but i'd have to think the 12z gfs is way overdone with the intensity.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 The European model is even more ridiculous than the gfs...sub-540 thicknesses and < 0 850s over marquette at hour 150...absurdly deep upper level low swings through Ohio Valley and spawns a sub1000 mb low over NJ, then 988 mb over upstate NY at hr 180...on june 25th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 The European model is even more ridiculous than the gfs...sub-540 thicknesses and < 0 850s over marquette at hour 150...absurdly deep upper level low swings through Ohio Valley and spawns a sub1000 mb low over NJ, then 988 mb over upstate NY at hr 180...on june 25th. That would be impressive to see verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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