Damage In Tolland Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Winter is spring in March. Facts don't lie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 ? A bit too much powder for the freak tonight, it would appear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 ? Judging by what I quoted of snowman, I'm counting only 3 below normal and 12 above normal springs in the last 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 A bit too much powder for the freak tonight, it would appear. Am I missing something? lol it's been a long day but think I counted right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Winter is spring in March. Facts don't lie I love the cold more than most but sometimes the positive departures over the past several years make me nervous haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Am I missing something? lol it's been a long day but think I counted right. A "-" is below, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Am I missing something? lol it's been a long day but think I counted right. I think you counted right, too. Going back 15 springs goes to 1998. 3 negatives Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 And skipping March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 A "-" is below, correct? Haha yeah...I guess there are 4 if you include March. I quoted the one sans March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 And skipping March Yeah that's the confusion...sorry there are 4 that are below normal using March. Still...nothing near a much colder outlook. I always used to think ahh it'll cycle around but the ratio of above to below can be quite startling over the past 15 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Well here's some springs that were below normal in the last 15 years...snowman's numbers don't seem to match these...but I know he is doing a composite...still looks a bit weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 '01 and '02 were close to normal on those maps...its the last 3 years that really stick out like a sore thumb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 What data do they use for those maps? And is it the same 30 period they are comparing to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Composite spring departures (BOS, BDL, PVD, ORH average based on today's normals) since the '90s... 1990: [b] -0.6[/b] 1991: +3.9 1992: -[b]2.2[/b] 1993: 0.0 1994: +0.2 1995: -[b]0.4[/b] 1996: [b] -1.3[/b] 1997: -[b]2.1[/b] 1998: +2.3 1999: +1.1 2000: +1.4 2001: -[b]0.3[/b] 2002: +0.8 2003: -[b]2.0[/b] 2004: +1.2 2005: -[b]2.2[/b] 2006: +0.8 2007: -[b]0.1[/b] 2008: +0.6 2009: +0.8 2010: +5.4 2011: +1.1 2012: +5.4 Judging by what I quoted of snowman, I'm counting only 3 below normal and 12 above normal springs in the last 15. I count 9 negatives. Are you only counting -2 or greater? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 I count 9 negatives. Are you only counting -2 or greater? 15 years bud... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 I count 9 negatives. Are you only counting -2 or greater? lol Key term is last 15 years. Count back 15 and see what you get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 lol Key term is last 15 years. Count back 15 and see what you get. Why cherry pick only the last 15 years. Why not use Snowman's complete list and say of the last 22 years nearly half have seen a negative departure. Or, say, in the last 22 years there have only been 3 more positive departures than negatives. I certainly hope you aren't turning into a Warminista. Then I would truly be alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 lol Key term is last 15 years. Count back 15 and see what you get. Ha .. been a long day for me (up since 3am, paddling 20 miles, no nap due to heavy rain storm ). I didn't pick up on the 15 year part. Carry on, freak! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 '01 and '02 were close to normal on those maps...its the last 3 years that really stick out like a sore thumb. Yeah...the interesting thing to me is it seems easy for us to have massive positive departures, but whenever we are negative, it's only like a degree or two. It seems months of +5 to +7 aren't hard to get, but then we have a month like this June where it's only negative by like a degree or two. Can anyone imagine a -7F month? That would be pretty cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Ha .. been a long day for me (up since 3am, paddling 20 miles, no nap due to heavy rain storm ). I didn't pick up on the 15 year part. Carry on, freak! Obviously a doppleganger has taken our Powderfreak out. I'm not sure how, but I'm positive Blizz and LL are behind this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 What data do they use for those maps? And is it the same 30 period they are comparing to? Those maps use divisional averages. Note the boundaries are climate divisions. That means they are including co-op stations in each of the climate divisions to create those maps. My numbers were strictly LCD sites within BOX's CWA, so yeah they may be skewed by the tarmac effect compared to those maps which include co-ops out in the middle of nowhere. The departures I computed follow NWS directives to use current normals for all departure comparisons (effectively recomputing departures historically every ten years as new normals sets are produced), whereas those maps might use static departures computed against the normals applicable for the time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Those maps use divisional averages. Note the boundaries are climate divisions. That means they are including co-op stations in each of the climate divisions to create those maps. My numbers were strictly LCD sites within BOX's CWA, so yeah they may be skewed by the tarmac effect compared to those maps which include co-ops out in the middle of nowhere. The departures I computed follow NWS directives to use current normals for all departure comparisons (effectively recomputing departures historically every ten years as new normals sets are produced), whereas those maps might use static departures computed against the normals applicable for the time period. There it is again. Urban Provincialism resulting in discrimination against the rural locales. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Why cherry pick only the last 15 years. Why not use Snowman's complete list and say of the last 22 years nearly half have seen a negative departure. Or, say, in the last 22 years there have only been 3 more positive departures than negatives. I certainly hope you aren't turning into a Warminista. Then I would truly be alone. Haha yeah I have no agenda...I just thought it was more startling how the last 15 have been warm. Trust me, I love cold and snow...I just enjoy looking at the facts too. And above normal in the winter isn't the worst thing, actually, we seem to get more snowfall with slightly above departures. Most snowstorm days in Dec/Jan/Feb have positive departures up here...mostly due to warm overnight lows though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 There it is again. Urban Provincialism resulting in discrimination against the rural locales. "Here be Dragons" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Obviously a doppleganger has taken our Powderfreak out. I'm not sure how, but I'm positive Blizz and LL are behind this. Ha... I try to stay unbiased and even out my cold-bullying with some warm posts once in a while. I'm not into spinning everything one way or another...I like to keep other posters on their toes and not to always expect one type of post out of me What you can expect is some Mansfield posts just about daily haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 There it is again. Urban Provincialism resulting in discrimination against the rural locales. Nah, just an acknowledgement that "middle of nowhere" stations are going to be biased relative to LCD sites generally located at airports. I used 4 stations in my computation of composite departure for SNE. As of May, there were a total of 86 active SNE stations that reported daily highs and lows (the number for which normals are available is less than that). Those maps are using the full set of data from those stations whereas I averaged the 4 first-order sites to keep it simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Haha yeah I have no agenda...I just thought it was more startling how the last 15 have been warm. Trust me, I love cold and snow...I just enjoy looking at the facts too. And above normal in the winter isn't the worst thing, actually, we seem to get more snowfall with slightly above departures. Most snowstorm days in Dec/Jan/Feb have positive departures up here...mostly due to warm overnight lows though. I'm going with "nearly half of the last 22 years have shown a negative departure". Ullr is always watching you know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Nah, just an acknowledgement that "middle of nowhere" stations are going to be biased relative to LCD sites generally located at airports. I used 4 stations in my computation of composite departure for SNE. As of May, there were a total of 86 active SNE stations that reported daily highs and lows (the number for which normals are available is less than that). Those maps are using the full set of data from those stations whereas I averaged the 4 first-order sites to keep it simple. Yeah, that methodology is totally suspect to me. The 4 active stations are in highly urbanized areas that have been getting increasingly urbanized. The heat island effect would certainly be enough to skew both daily highs and overnight lows. The maps using the full set of data paint a different picture as Will points out. Have Blizz and LL promised you a cash prize to cook the books? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 I'm going with "nearly half of the last 22 years have shown a negative departure". Ullr is always watching you know. That sounds a lot better. And yes, hopefully Ullr doesn't hurt me too much for these lapses. I know he'll make it snow at some point...can't get worse that last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Yeah, that methodology is totally suspect to me. The 4 active stations are in highly urbanized areas that have been getting increasingly urbanized. The heat island effect would certainly be enough to skew both daily highs and overnight lows. The maps using the full set of data paint a different picture as Will points out. Have Blizz and LL promised you a cash prize to cook the books? There are different ways to look at it. NCDC itself uses various metrics that are based on area or population weightings of climate divisions, never mind those maps which are generated by whatever method the HPRCC decides upon. I kept it simple and used first-order sites for transparency sake. They are generally representative and easily verified by checking the BOX website, and any biases are built into the normals. It was not an attempt to cook the books as I have no vested interest in the warm/cold fight. My nearest climo site is LGA anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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