ski MRG Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Agree, signs pointing to warm times the first week of July also. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m24uUzJgfwQ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 True but that dome has been heading ne in the last couple runs, if I had to guess I would think Scooter is going +1-+2 for July. LOL I don't know, but I don't see +2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 I just cut the numbers for the 4, HFD, PVD, ORH and BOS. Frankly, disclaimer: ORH and BOS used in a climo study for "SNE" is comparable to neolithic incompetence. But seeing as the "officials" refuse to budge on some very basic spatial reasoning as to why those two sites are absurd in any climate evaluation that describes the impact on 90 percent of the population ...eh hem, we use them grudgingly. HFD is -0.75x for June prior to using today's positive departure. ORH is -0.85x prior to using today's positive departures. BOS and PVD, however, are over -2.x and -3.x respectively. It's plausible, though not likely, that HFD and ORD find their way positive for the month of June, but these last 8 days have all got to be a minimum of 5 positive as a mean. 21 days is a lot of weight to overcome. I see these locations as being above normal at least through D4, then perhaps two days of average to slightly below, then finishing the last couple days of the month above. This when balancing the teleconnectors against the mean operational suggestion. It would seem pretty hopeless for PVD and BOS because they probably have above normal days; they'd have to be pretty awesome to overcome a 21-day backed mean of -3 and -2. They could close the gap. What people should get their heads around is that the -NAO dominated 2 week period of mid June is gone for the next 4 or 5 days. It's difficult to know how that CPC, NAO nadir there after will affect, because the CDC doesn't reflect that. The last one that heralded in the cool mid month, both agencies agreed - it was taking lolly pops from babies to figure that one out. This is different; we'll have to see how that plays. I've found in the past that when the agencies disagree, stochastic/poor domain space handling takes place in the dailies. Could see the NAO just being statically -1SD, which may mean normal for 2 or 3 days. After that, both CDC and CPC agree on the NAO going neutral/positive. This summer has shown already what happens then the NAO hint at rising man, that was hot for many folks below 1200 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 I just cut the numbers for the 4, HFD, PVD, ORH and BOS. Frankly, disclaimer: ORH and BOS used in a climo study for "SNE" is comparable to neolithic incompetence. But seeing as the "officials" refuse to budge on some very basic spatial reasoning as to why those two sites are absurd in any climate evaluation that describes the impact on 90 percent of the population ...eh hem, we use them grudgingly. HFD is -0.75x for June prior to using today's positive departure. ORH is -0.85x prior to using today's positive departures. BOS and PVD, however, are over -2.x and -3.x respectively. It's plausible, though not likely, that HFD and ORD find their way positive for the month of June, but these last 8 days have all got to be a minimum of 5 positive as a mean. 21 days is a lot of weight to overcome. I see these locations as being above normal at least through D4, then perhaps two days of average to slightly below, then finishing the last couple days of the month above. This when balancing the teleconnectors against the mean operational suggestion. It would seem pretty hopeless for PVD and BOS because they probably have above normal days; they'd have to be pretty awesome to overcome a 21-day backed mean of -3 and -2. They could close the gap. What people should get their heads around is that the -NAO dominated 2 week period of mid June is gone for the next 4 or 5 days. It's difficult to know how that CPC, NAO nadir there after will affect, because the CDC doesn't reflect that. The last one that heralded in the cool mid month, both agencies agreed - it was taking lolly pops from babies to figure that one out. This is different; we'll have to see how that plays. I've found in the past that when the agencies disagree, stochastic/poor domain space handling takes place in the dailies. Could see the NAO just being statically -1SD, which may mean normal for 2 or 3 days. After that, both CDC and CPC agree on the NAO going neutral/positive. This summer has shown already what happens then the NAO hint at rising man, that was hot for many folks below 1200 feet. Not really...one is interior and the other is coastal and a huge percentage of the population lives close to them. When talking departures, their location is already built into the climo. Its not like "well ORH is at 1,000 feet so my 93F was a higher departure than their 89F". ORH was actually -1.2F before today on the month...not -0.85F. Today will be about a +10 or +11 when said and done, then maybe a couple of +5s or so before we are below normal Mon through Thu, so I think their is almost no chance of + for the month. BDL might have a slightly better shot but still slim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Not really...one is interior and the other is coastal and a huge percentage of the population lives close to them. When talking departures, their location is already built into the climo. Its not like "well ORH is at 1,000 feet so my 93F was a higher departure than their 89F". ORH was actually -1.2F before today on the month...not -0.85F. Today will be about a +10 or +11 when said and done, then maybe a couple of +5s or so before we are below normal Mon through Thu, so I think their is almost no chance of + for the month. BDL might have a slightly better shot but still slim. I respectfully disagree. There is not a huge population out at Logan where marine contamination heavily taints the reality of where the bulk of population lives and breaths. The proof of this is merely in looking at the numbers here: HFD can't even get a solid -1 departure in a perceived cold month, where BOS and PVD, heavily impacted by NAO contribution onshore plague, are over -2 and -3 respectively. I added up ORH twice and got the same number - hm. Eh, splitting hairs. As for Worcester ... using that site doesn't really cut it for me because that air port is at a 1,000 ft el, and downtown, and many of the surrounding burrows, neighborhoods and thoroughfares and such, they are not at 1,000 ...again, where the population really resides. I wish they would officiate somewhere else in ORH county. I don't see how using those locales outright really services the population fairly. Frankly, I think HFD is more appropriate for Framingham, Natick, Sudbury, Acton, Maynard, Chelmsford, Lowell, Wayland, ..etc, etc.. Marlborough, Westborough, Northborough... Let's think here, the closest place that could validate those locales is 1,000 foot high ORH... come on! I had feeling that I would be hearing from you when I posted this. Ha ha. seriously though, don't be offended if there is any possibility of that. I don't think you are, per se, are, but there are those that see their area listed and can get punchy about things. It's just my opinion, which can suck as much as the next. Word. Having said that... I do see use in using those locales, but for a different sort of climate analysis. There can be one for exotics, and there is a telling data exposure for science alone. BOS' marine dominated climate should be subset alone. Also, I said plausible they could ...ORH and HFD, not a certainty - no way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 ya the ORH airport is not really representative of the city as a whole....i think the ave. elevation of ORH is 500 feet. I mean it is great for snow anomalies but unless you live at higher than 800 or so feet in orh it is probably not the best representation of orh's worcester but whateva i mean the same exact opposite is true for the fitchburg station 350 feet at the airport pretty much the torchy'est spot in town. W fitchburg is 850 plus and very similar to ORH airport while E fitchburg is prolly 3 degrees warmer than west side of town if not more on some days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 I stink think we may have a warm shot near Saturday or so give a day. Long range after that may feature more summer time wx with times of warmer wx and maybe tstms as trough hangs around. It also has the chance of a few crappy days if we have a wave develops. While the big heat stays well SW, it may tried to intrude like this weekend giving the chances of some convection. I don't see inferno heat at all. Just more seasonal stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Forecast from okx keeps getting better and better! Sunny 86 today 83 tomorrow. One day of showers on Monday, then full sun t-friday, where is the noreaster, the doom and gloom, the cold temps everyone was talking about?? One day of showers then heaven, doom and gloom failure...............again:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Forecast from okx keeps getting better and better! Sunny 86 today 83 tomorrow. One day of showers on Monday, then full sun t-friday, where is the noreaster, the doom and gloom, the cold temps everyone was talking about?? One day of showers then heaven, doom and gloom failure...............again:( Tuesday-Thursday will be rather cool and self destructive sun. That was the whole point. Monday will be below normal highs as well. Late this week and weekend it may warm. The people who you call doom and gloomers are still well below for the month. Looks like they were right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Tuesday-Thursday will be rather cool and self destructive sun. That was the whole point. Monday will be below normal highs as well. Late this week and weekend it may warm. The people who you call doom and gloomers are still well below for the month. Looks like they were right. Self destructive sun LOL LOL, tuesday is sunny and 78 here, how much more perfect do we need, mid 70s wed and thur, 80 friday and torch next weekend, its the warmest year ever, its the SIXTEENTH month in a row of above normal temps here. not opinions just facts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Tuesday-Thursday will be rather cool and self destructive sun. That was the whole point. Monday will be below normal highs as well. Late this week and weekend it may warm. The people who you call doom and gloomers are still well below for the month. Looks like they were right. WELL below normal for the month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 23, 2012 Author Share Posted June 23, 2012 Tuesday-Thursday will be rather cool and self destructive sun. That was the whole point. Monday will be below normal highs as well. Late this week and weekend it may warm. The people who you call doom and gloomers are still well below for the month. Looks like they were right. Exaggeration is his game, just look at the title of the thread, cool down and trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Exaggeration is his game, just look at the title of the thread, cool down and trough. You have played the cold card since promises of a xxx winter and halloween pattern change. Since then we have had a ridiculously warm fall, winter and spring, and are experiencing the warmest year ever in recorded history. I would jump ship if I were you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 BDR +0.5 for the month now, what a turn around! +8 or so today will put us safely on the right side of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Self destructive sun LOL LOL, tuesday is sunny and 78 here, how much more perfect do we need, mid 70s wed and thur, 80 friday and torch next weekend, its the warmest year ever, its the SIXTEENTH month in a row of above normal temps here. not opinions just facts. That's what it is called. You have an ULL overhead and the cold air aloft causes clouds with the chance of a shwr or tstm each day. That does not mean 60 and overcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 WELL below normal for the month? Probably at -2 right now. That's well below normal right now, and this month will be the first below normal month in a year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Probably at -2 right now. That's well below normal right now, and this month will be the first below normal month in a year. At one site out of 4, and if I used a that term when only one site was -2 you would say I was exaggerating, but I can use well as a way to describe things if one out of 4 sites is - or +2?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Exaggeration is his game, just look at the title of the thread, cool down and trough. This week will likely be cooler than normal no doubt. No way it is warmer than normal. Going forward looks more like summer time wx, but that means possibly a mix of some cooler and warmer than normal days. I can't say for sure that it is solidly above...looks like early July could be near normal of a little above or below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 At one site out of 4, and if I used a that term when only one site was -2 you would say I was exaggerating, but I can use well as a way to describe things if one out of 4 sites is - or +2?? Yes I am right, the people who you call doom and gloomers live here as you always note. When I have been wrong in beating you weenies down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 This week will likely be cooler than normal no doubt. No way it is warmer than normal. Going forward looks more like summer time wx, but that means possibly a mix of some cooler and warmer than normal days. I can't say for sure that it is solidly above...looks like early July could be near normal of a little above or below. This week is monday -sunday correct, because if it is I will bet 100 dollars its above normal for those 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 This week is monday -sunday correct, because if it is I will bet 100 dollars its above normal for those 7 days. I only care about BOS. I don't think the whole week averages above normal, but it will be close. If Friday through Sunday is warm...it will be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Yes I am right, the people who you call doom and gloomers live here as you always note. When I have been wrong in beating you weenies down. You give yourself a lot of credit, I am not referring to you. All I heard about was nor'easters and temps in the 50s and 60s flooding blah blah blah, where is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 I only care about BOS. I don't think the whole week averages above normal, but it will be close. If Friday through Sunday is warm...it will be close. Exactly, case closed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 23, 2012 Author Share Posted June 23, 2012 That's what it is called. You have an ULL overhead and the cold air aloft causes clouds with the chance of a shwr or tstm each day. That does not mean 60 and overcast. Yep knew exactly what you meant. Box PVD and ORH all finish below normal for June after this weeks cool down. Normals are up to 82/63. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 23, 2012 Author Share Posted June 23, 2012 At one site out of 4, and if I used a that term when only one site was -2 you would say I was exaggerating, but I can use well as a way to describe things if one out of 4 sites is - or +2?? Check again bro PVD is -2.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Exactly, case closed. Case closes on what? I don't agree it's solidly above normal, it will be close. Typical summer time stuff with days below and above. Next weekend may be hot NYC south. Might be tough here in BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 23, 2012 Author Share Posted June 23, 2012 You give yourself a lot of credit, I am not referring to you. All I heard about was nor'easters and temps in the 50s and 60s flooding blah blah blah, where is it? Really your reading comprehension skills suck. People discussing model output is not a forecast. The overall theme in this thread is that a trough will cool down the SNE area, lead to showers and self destructive sun days which will push departures down leading to a below normal week. Exaggerate much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Case closes on what? I don't agree it's solidly above normal, it will be close. Typical summer time stuff with days below and above. Next weekend may be hot NYC south. Might be tough here in BOS. you just said it was no way above normal, then you gave yourself wiggle room about possibly being above normal. A week is a week! Its mon-sun, so what is it above or below normal for that stretch. I say above, thanks to a torch fri-sun, what say you for the 7 day period, I will put a 100 bill on the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Really your reading comprehension skills suck. People discussing model output is not a forecast. The overall theme in this thread is that a trough will cool down the SNE area, lead to showers and self destructive sun days which will push departures down leading to a below normal week. Exaggerate much? you have cold exaggerated since last october steve, at least i have history and facts on my side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 23, 2012 Author Share Posted June 23, 2012 you have cold exaggerated since last october steve, at least i have history and facts on my side. Just using NWS P and C for the week, THEY, ya know the professionals, predict my average from Sun to Fri will be -4.1 from normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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