A-L-E-K Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Anyone think there's a chance of additional backbuilding storms in WC or SW Wisconsin? As of now all the models, even the further north HRRR, seem to have placed the convection too far south. Saw that coming a mile away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Anyone else seeing that nice supercell over Lake Superior right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 Sunday could be a very interesting day for srn WI, nrn IL, and NW IN. Looks like a backdoor cold front's gonna be moving down the lake into an very unstable environment, with CAPE values of up to 3500 J/kg likely in place. Add in that there will likely be 40-50 kt of bulk shear and you've got a recipe for a good local severe wx event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 Sunday could be a very interesting day for srn WI, nrn IL, and NW IN. Looks like a backdoor cold front's gonna be moving down the lake into an very unstable environment, with CAPE values of up to 3500 J/kg likely in place. Add in that there will likely be 40-50 kt of bulk shear and you've got a recipe for a good local severe wx event. One thing that bothers me a little is the weak low level flow. But something worth watching given the boring stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 Sorry, didn't know we were using this thread for Sunday. Everytime he hear about lake breeze storms I tend to tune out since they're usually well to my west...that said the views can be pretty awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 22, 2012 Author Share Posted June 22, 2012 Sunday could be a very interesting day for srn WI, nrn IL, and NW IN. Looks like a backdoor cold front's gonna be moving down the lake into an very unstable environment, with CAPE values of up to 3500 J/kg likely in place. Add in that there will likely be 40-50 kt of bulk shear and you've got a recipe for a good local severe wx event. I didn't realize how much CAPE was expected. Hopefully this thing slows down a tad, otherwise it will probably come through in the morning by the looks of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 22, 2012 Author Share Posted June 22, 2012 Nice little severe cell north of here in Sheboygan County, but will probably pass just offshore by the time it gets here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Anyone have any idea why SPC doesn't have a slight risk for tomorrow across n/c IL into n/c IN? 12z data from NAM/GFS is suggesting surface based CAPE values ranging from the 1500-3000 overlapped by 30-50 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear. I see no reason why storms would not fire along the cold front in the late afternoon/early evening in an moderate-to high instability situation with little to no CIN in the area after it is burned off by the hot and humid air. Someone please enlighten me, I'm confused lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Anyone have any idea why SPC doesn't have a slight risk for tomorrow across n/c IL into n/c IN? 12z data from NAM/GFS is suggesting surface based CAPE values ranging from the 1500-3000 overlapped by 30-50 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear. I see no reason why storms would not fire along the cold front in the late afternoon/early evening in an moderate-to high instability situation with little to no CIN in the area after it is burned off by the hot and humid air. Someone please enlighten me, I'm confused lol... I'm guessing that CAPE is being overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Slight risk is there now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 SPC throws up a slight risk, then IWX says, "What severe weather?" AMPLIFICATION OF SW TROUGH THROUGH JAMES BAY XPCD W/SFC CYCLONE TRACKING THROUGH THE NRN LAKES AS CDFNT TRAILS SWWD AND CROSSES THROUGH THE OH VALLEY SUN NIGHT. EARLIER ENTHUSIASM WRT THIS SYS HAD ERODED AS HGT FALL CNTR SHIFTS THROUGH WRN NY SUN NIGHT AND WWD PORTION FNTL SCALE CIRC DECAYS SUN AFTN. IN ADDN...ERODING MODEL BASED BNDRY LYR MSTR PROFILES MOST SIG AND PORTEND CONV FAILURE LIKELY SUN AFTN. THUS TAKING DOWNWARD TRENDING MOS BASED POPS AT FACE VALUE...WILL CUT GOING POPS CONSIDERABLY AND CONSTRAIN TO LT AFTN/ERLY EVE. THIS IS FURTHER EXACERBATED BY EWD ADVTN OF ROBUST LL THERMAL RIDGE AND SUBSTANTIAL MIXING XPCD AGAIN WHICH WHILE FVRG WARMEST BIAS CORRECTED TEMP GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS MORE SIG LL MSTR EROSION SIMILAR TO THIS AFTN PLUS THE PRESENCE OF SOME DEGREE OF MID LVL CAPPING INVERSION. THUS ALL THE MORE REASON TO SCALE BACK IF NOT ELIMINATE POPS ALTOGETHER WITHIN THE NXT MODEL CYCLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Yea, IWX currently has only 10% chance of shower or storm after 5 p.m. Sunday for my point forecast. Drought begets drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Well, the 09z HRRR showing potentially little if any thunderstorm activity for late this afternoon into the early evening hours. Near zero CAPE, very little helicity, and positive values on the Lifted Index. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 The latest SPC Day 1 has two Slight risks in the region (both for 15% wind and hail): the first over most of the northern half of IL, and the other centered on Lake Erie: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 The projected radar image here later this afternoon/early evening showing not that much of developing showers/storms. We will see who the fortunate ones to get any rain before the blast furnace arrives early/mid-week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 The projected radar image here later this afternoon/early evening showing not that much of developing showers/storms. We will see who the fortunate ones to get any rain before the blast furnace arrives early/mid-week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 SPC maintained the slight risk area over the same areas at 1630z. Sort of a complicated setup with the leftover convection/clouds, and weak nature of the surface boundary. Low-level shear is horrible, but mid-level shear is quite nice with that H5 wind max rolling down the east side of the heat dome. Differential heating boundaries only complicate things. Just gonna have to wait and see how this pans out, but I'm not overly optimistic at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 It looks like yet another case of the models struggling in the drought conditions, with SPC biting. This has happened on multiple occasions this season. THE SLIGHT RISK AREAS WILL ALSO BE REMOVED FROM THE IL AREA AND FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION ATTM. STORMS OVER IL HAVE DISSIPATED...AND CONVECTION ONGOING INVOF THE LOWER LAKES AREA REMAINS WEAK -- GIVEN ONLY MINIMAL DESTABILIZATION WHICH HAS OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE AN ISOLATED STRONGER CELL MAY OCCUR ACROSS THIS REGION INVOF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT...ANY WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL/ISOLATED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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