Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,609
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

June 16th-? Severe Thread


wisconsinwx

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 137
  • Created
  • Last Reply

It will be interesting to watch the evolution of the storms this afternoon and evening with the weak cool front sweeping across the Upper Great Lakes. It looks to be a close call around here as to whether we get more storms. Several models indicate the storms in C and N Wisconsin sagging SE into the area, while the GFS indicates the storms fading before they approach. Definitely should be plenty of instability built up, but the cap may be too much to overcome.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It will be interesting to watch the evolution of the storms this afternoon and evening with the weak cool front sweeping across the Upper Great Lakes. It looks to be a close call around here as to whether we get more storms. Several models indicate the storms in C and N Wisconsin sagging SE into the area, while the GFS indicates the storms fading before they approach. Definitely should be plenty of instability built up, but the cap may be too much to overcome.

Tom Skilling mentioned those storms as well and thinks they could come as far south as here before dying off. NMM model shows that solution. The MCS might have disrupted the cap further north by you this morning. LLJ might help tonight break part of that cap.

You can see the zone to watch out by DLL.

wisgif32.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Tom Skilling mentioned those storms as well and thinks they could come as far south as here before dying off. NMM model shows that solution. The MCS might have disrupted the cap further north by you this morning. LLJ might help tonight break part of that cap.

You can see the zone to watch out by DDL.

wisgif32.jpg

Yeah, I agree, look for initiation from about La Crosse to Green Bay this afternoon, then look for them to drift ESE or SE through the late afternoon or evening.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

the high res guidance have been way too aggressive in diving these ridge rollers southeast..I don't think there's much chance of anything south of MKE.

Too far right on some models. It did turn and not head straight east like the other models were suggesting. Looks like complex will head straight into Ohio! SD to OH, that's alot of miles. (About 800)

Would be nice to get an outflow boundary tonight.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Too far right on some models. It did turn and not head straight east like the other models were suggesting. Looks like complex will head straight into Ohio! SD to OH, that's alot of miles!

Would be nice to get an outflow boundary tonight.

They always turn SE if they live long enough

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Too far right on some models. It did turn and not head straight east like the other models were suggesting. Looks like complex will head straight into Ohio! SD to OH, that's alot of miles!

Would be nice to get an outflow boundary tonight.

Right now there is discrepancy on whether the MCS/squall line that is likely today will move primarily due east or drift S/SE. The WRF-NMM is persistent in drifting it southward, while the HRRR keeps all the convection north of MKE.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

ride the HRRR

I'll go with a compromise. Our local Fox 6 affiliate Skyvision Plus model has been relatively reliable in recent events, and it shows thunderstorms approaching the Milwaukee/Port Washington areas from the NW around 9pm and then even drifting a tad south before dissipating after impacting Milwaukee and points north.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Northwestern Ontario north of the Lake of the Woods

TORNADO WARNING

ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA

AT 2:55 PM EDT MONDAY 18 JUNE 2012.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

TORNADO WARNING FOR:

=NEW= EAR FALLS - PERRAULT FALLS - WESTERN LAC SEUL.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

==DISCUSSION==

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO IS ABOUT 40 KM

SOUTH OF EAR FALLS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD. THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE A

TORNADO AND HAIL TO 5 CM IN DIAMETER OR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 90 KM/H.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nasty storm near Escanaba, MI.

Kinda of the same story with the rest of the strong cells going SW from this one.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI

317 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2012

MIC041-109-182000-

/O.CON.KMQT.SV.W.0013.000000T0000Z-120618T2000Z/

DELTA MI-MENOMINEE MI-

317 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MENOMINEE AND

CENTRAL DELTA COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM EDT/300 PM CDT/...

AT 313 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL...

AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 9

MILES SOUTHEAST OF LA BRANCHE...OR 12 MILES WEST OF ESCANABA...MOVING

EAST AT 50 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

ESCANABA...GLADSTONE...RAPID RIVER...CORNELL...BRAMPTON...

PERKINS...MAPLEWOOD AND ENSIGN.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Water Spout reported off Cedar Point

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH

334 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2012

OHC043-181945-

/O.CON.KCLE.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-120618T1945Z/

ERIE OH-

334 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM EDT FOR EASTERN

ERIE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO...

AT 325 PM EDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A WATERSPOUT NEAR CEDAR POINT.

THE STORM WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. ANOTHER STORM HAS MOVED

INTO SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY NEAR BERLIN HEIGHTS AT 333 PM AND WAS

STRENGTHENING. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGE AND A

TORNADO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THE POSSIBLE TORNADO INCLUDE...BERLIN

HEIGHTS.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Water Spout reported off Cedar Point

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH

334 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2012

OHC043-181945-

/O.CON.KCLE.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-120618T1945Z/

ERIE OH-

334 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM EDT FOR EASTERN

ERIE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO...

AT 325 PM EDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A WATERSPOUT NEAR CEDAR POINT.

THE STORM WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. ANOTHER STORM HAS MOVED

INTO SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY NEAR BERLIN HEIGHTS AT 333 PM AND WAS

STRENGTHENING. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGE AND A

TORNADO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THE POSSIBLE TORNADO INCLUDE...BERLIN

HEIGHTS.

That'll make the roller coasters more interesting :lmao:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Water Spout reported off Cedar Point

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH

334 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2012

OHC043-181945-

/O.CON.KCLE.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-120618T1945Z/

ERIE OH-

334 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM EDT FOR EASTERN

ERIE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO...

AT 325 PM EDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A WATERSPOUT NEAR CEDAR POINT.

THE STORM WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. ANOTHER STORM HAS MOVED

INTO SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY NEAR BERLIN HEIGHTS AT 333 PM AND WAS

STRENGTHENING. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGE AND A

TORNADO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THE POSSIBLE TORNADO INCLUDE...BERLIN

HEIGHTS.

Radar shows the velocity couplet was right at the Cedar Point causeway.

post-1182-0-55715000-1340049885_thumb.jp

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Another tornado warning for Wausau...

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI

334 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2012

WIC073-182045-

/O.CON.KGRB.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-120618T2045Z/

MARATHON WI-

334 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL MARATHON COUNTY

UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

AT 331 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS

STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR RIB MOUNTAIN...OR SOUTH OF WAUSAU...MOVING

EAST AT 45 MPH.

RADAR INDICATED STRONG ROTATION. THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM!

TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY!

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A

STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR

OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT

YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Too far right on some models. It did turn and not head straight east like the other models were suggesting. Looks like complex will head straight into Ohio! SD to OH, that's alot of miles. (About 800)

Would be nice to get an outflow boundary tonight.

And it just crossed into West Virginia and PA!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

And it just crossed into West Virginia and PA!

That's about a 1000 mile long path! Looks like it will meet its end in the high country of WV.

...

MKX disco. on thunderstorms across the northern half of the cwa.

000

FXUS63 KMKX 182032 AAA

AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

332 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2012

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

MESOSCALE MODELS AND MOST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A

DECENT HANDLE ON THE CONVECTION IN NORTH CENTRAL WI EARLY THIS

AFTERNOON ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE. MODELS DEVELOP A

THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX AND MOVE THE OUTFLOW-TRIGGERED THUNDERSTORMS

SOUTHWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE

AT LEAST THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS

BETWEEN 4 PM AND 7 PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND IT COULD REACH MADISON

AND MILWAUKEE AREAS FROM 7 TO 10 PM. MUCH LOWER PROBABILITY ON

ANYTHING REACHING RACINE OR KENOSHA BEFORE THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY

HANGS UP.

WITH NEARLY 2000 J/KG OF CAPE AND 40 KNOTS OF 6KM BULK SHEAR...LARGE

HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. A SEVERE

THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES

UNTIL 8 PM. IF THE BOUNDARY REALLY GETS MOVING AND CAN MAINTAIN

STRENGTH AND FIGHT AGAINST THE WARM CAP ACROSS SOUTHERN WI...THEN

THE WATCH COULD BE EXPANDED SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND PRECIPITABLE WATER

VALUES ARE HIGH. MOISTURE TRANSPORT POINTS INTO OUR NORTHEAST

FORECAST AREA AND THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE RIDGE OF THE CORFIDI

VECTORS LINES UP. A CONCERN IS FLASH FLOODING IN NORTHEAST FORECAST

AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE URBAN AREAS OF FOND DU LAC AND

SHEBOYGAN...POSSIBLY DOWN INTO NORTHERN MILWAUKEE METRO IF HRRR PANS

OUT. THE 17Z HRRR SLOWLY MOVES THE BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WI THIS

EVENING.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...