huronicane Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 Not so sure about that tornado warning.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 739 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EAST CENTRAL KNOX COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... NORTHWESTERN PEORIA COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS... STARK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 830 PM CDT. * AT 734 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WILLIAMSFIELD...OR 19 MILES EAST OF GALESBURG...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... LAURA...WEST JERSEY...TOULON...WYOMING...CASTLETON...BRADFORD... MONICA AND DUNCAN. QLCS type line segment rotation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 Nice training line across Kankakee Co...Radar estimates around 4" Yeah it is. Haven't looked in awhile but I had .60 inch of rain in 20 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 739 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EAST CENTRAL KNOX COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... NORTHWESTERN PEORIA COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS... STARK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 830 PM CDT. * AT 734 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WILLIAMSFIELD...OR 19 MILES EAST OF GALESBURG...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... LAURA...WEST JERSEY...TOULON...WYOMING...CASTLETON...BRADFORD... MONICA AND DUNCAN. QLCS type line segment rotation? Yep., I think so. What a spurious warning. Looked like rotation on one scan, then disappeared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 Cell just popped up near Northbrook in Cook County. Looks another cell trying to get going in Lake County as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 Shot a time lapse earlier of the dying bow echo that moved in from the southwest. Sent out a pretty nice roll cloud, which is pretty cool to see sped up. https://vimeo.com/44176969 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 Looks like maybe a little something trying to spin up between Donovan and Iroquois Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 17, 2012 Author Share Posted June 17, 2012 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1129 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHERN MILWAUKEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN... SOUTHWESTERN OZAUKEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN... * UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT * AT 1127 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MILWAUKEE TIMMERMAN AIRPORT...OR NEAR BROWN DEER...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE DAMAGING WINDS. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... BROWN DEER...GLENDALE...MEQUON...THIENSVILLE...FOX POINT...BAYSIDE AND RIVER HILLS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. This is the sixth severe warning this year for at least part of the county. Not bad for an off severe weather year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 Most of MI and WI and a slight risk for tomorrow, might as well use this thread for anything that develops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 ARX talking about where these expected thunderstorms might travel. THE FOCUS THEN GOES TO TONIGHT WHERE AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. THIS TRACK IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON WHERE CONVECTION INITIATES THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE SECOND AND MORE POTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND THE DAKOTAS. THE TREND IN THE 17.12Z GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TO SHIFT THIS INITIATION AREA A BIT FURTHER TO THE NORTH DUE TO A STRONG 800MB CAPPING INVERSION THAT HAS ADVECTED NORTHWARD TODAY. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT CONVECTION WILL FORM IN THE VICINITY OF WHERE THE WARM FRONT MEETS UP WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND QUICKLY ORGANIZE INTO SUPERCELLS IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA WHERE NORTH DAKOTA MEETS SOUTH DAKOTA. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD AS SUPERCELLS...THESE STORMS WILL CONGEAL INTO A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AND RACE TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND INSTABILITY AXIS. CORFIDI VECTORS WOULD SUGGEST MORE OF A SOUTHEAST TRACK ALONG THIS LLJ AND 800MB CAP...BUT THE 17.12Z NAM/GFS SUGGEST MORE OF AN EASTWARD TRACK TO THE SYSTEM GOING FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Western WI just put under a Severe Thunderstorm watch. Edit: Cells popping in SW WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 God, if the NAM has anything to say, WI, the UP, and the nrn LP of MI have one hell of a day ahead on Monday. Even with low-level moisture probably too high, yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 18, 2012 Author Share Posted June 18, 2012 God, if the NAM has anything to say, WI, the UP, and the nrn LP of MI have one hell of a day ahead on Monday. Even with low-level moisture probably too high, yikes. The NAM is not the only model I've seen that paints over 3000 J/KG of SBCAPE, although I think the northern half of Wisconsin will be more under the gun due to better forcing. Certainly if this MCS sweeps through quickly enough to destabilize these N GL areas, any modes of severe are possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 0z NAM was too far north with the complex heading towards the ARX area. It will be interesting to see if more activity develops along the warm front tonight. Edit: 10 pm tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Nice 80 kt H5 jet streak on the 00z NAM tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Also: SREF really picking up on parameters for Mon/Tues. Not sure that the forcing will promote pure discrete convection, but worth watching nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Interesting to see how this plays out, I do think Southern and Central Lower Michigan are not out of the woods with respect to severe tomorrow, especially since the better moisture is still south of the area across Central IN/IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Also: SREF really picking up on parameters for Mon/Tues. Not sure that the forcing will promote pure discrete convection, but worth watching nonetheless. Shear vectors look nice on both days, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Nevermind that last post, it hadn't updated yet, its a Slight Risk with standard probs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 This MCS has one large cloud canopy! Edit: MKX expecting this MCS to turn more right into the forecast area. 000 FXUS63 KMKX 180214 AAA AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 914 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012 .UPDATE...ADDED PARAGRAPH ON MONDAY WINDS. INCREASING THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS EASTERN IOWA TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SEE NO REASON WHY THIS WOULD NOT CONTINUE INTO SOUTHERN WI AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES SO WL ADD SCT/CHC MENTION IN FOR THE LATE EVENING TO SOUTH CENTRAL WI...AND SPREAD THE CHANCE EWD LATER IN THE NIGHT. FOCUS IS ON IMPRESSIVE MESO-SCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL MN ATTM. THIS IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO MORE WIND/HEAVY RAIN EVENT AS IT PROGRESSES EWD DURING THE EVENING. MOST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AND MESO-SCALE MODELS MOVE THE MCS EWD ACROSS NRN HALF OF WI AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER 12Z 4KM WRF-NMM APPEARS TO BE HANDLING CURRENT CONVECTION BETTER THAN HRRR AND WRF-ARW. THE WRF- NMM MOVES THE CONVECTION INTO THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. THIS COULD VERY WELL HAPPEN AS THIS AREA MAY BE THE LOCATION OF THE GREATEST SYSTEM-RELATIVE CONVERGENCE WHEN TAKING INTO ACCOUNT WINDS AND MOISTURE. IN ADDITION...CORFIDI VECTORS FOR LATE TONIGHT FROM BOTH GFS AND NAM ARE FROM THE N TO NW AROUND 30KTS. NSSL 4KM WRF SYNTHETIC IMAGERY DEPICTS CONVECTION AND COLDEST CLOUD TOPS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF CURRENT CONVECTION IN WRN MN/NORTHEAST SODAK. SYNTHETIC IMAGERY CARRIES MCS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI LATE TNGT AS IT WEAKENS. FOR NOW WL KEEP LIKELY WORDING IN THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT WITH EITHER SCT/CHC ELSEWHERE. EXPECT ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND CLOUDS FROM MORNING CONVECTION TO THIN AND WEAKEN BY AFTERNOON. STRONG MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO REACH 15 TO 25 KTS SUSTAINED LEVELS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 KTS. MAY GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES...BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO DO MORE THAN MENTION IN HWO. BUMPED UP WINDSPEEDS IN GRIDS/ZFP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Possible hailer over extreme southern Kent / northern Barry County MI now. Over 65 DBZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Patiently awaiting for that MCS to die and give us some plain rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 The part of the MCS that's heading for me looks to be weakening, but I'll let you guys know if I get anything good. Should be here in 30-45 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Funny watching the MCS **** the bed before it hits. Well I guess 90 isnt off the table. Can't win em all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 You guys keep complaining, but I'm pretty happy with what I see right now. The MCS is bowing out right towards Oakland county, so even if they're sub severe the strongest winds should hit here. And the suddenly weakening radar returns might be more due to it getting closer to the radar then actually weakening. Either way, its better then anything I was expecting to see when I woke up this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Funny watching the MCS **** the bed before it hits. Well I guess 90 isnt off the table. Can't win em all. I think the high temps are going to bust low for the eastern half of lower MI today. There's more storms organizing east of Ludington so there's a possibility of another round for you later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 I think the high temps are going to bust low for the eastern half of lower MI today. There's more storms organizing east of Ludington so there's a possibility of another round for you later on. It would be nice. We could use the rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 You guys keep complaining, but I'm pretty happy with what I see right now. The MCS is bowing out right towards Oakland county, so even if they're sub severe the strongest winds should hit here. And the suddenly weakening radar returns might be more due to it getting closer to the radar then actually weakening. Either way, its better then anything I was expecting to see when I woke up this afternoon. There's a pretty strong large scale rear inflow jet with the complex. Any of that wind mixes down you can get a severe wind gust even without super strong reflectivity returns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 You guys keep complaining, but I'm pretty happy with what I see right now. The MCS is bowing out right towards Oakland county, so even if they're sub severe the strongest winds should hit here. And the suddenly weakening radar returns might be more due to it getting closer to the radar then actually weakening. Either way, its better then anything I was expecting to see when I woke up this afternoon. BV suggests 40-45 mph gusts are possible. Also see a nice shelf cloud off in the distance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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