Geos Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 I'm wondering how much impact the wet soils will have on temperatures this coming week. Maybe low to mid 90s at best? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 NWS has bumped much of Iowa into the upper 90s for Monday. The wind will be nice, although I'll likely have to move some plants into the garage so they don't get ripped apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 NWS has bumped much of Iowa into the upper 90s for Monday. The wind will be nice, although I'll likely have to move some plants into the garage so they don't get ripped apart. Yeah DVN has been slowly bumping up temps each day since last Thursday. Point up to 96 tomorrow and 95 Tue for much of the QCA. 30-40mph winds with that kind of heat is always kind of cool. Those winds should only help to dry out the topsoil as well I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 My point forecast has knocked two degrees off temperatures for Monday and Tuesday, 92° with a chance of storms tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 Looks like central Iowa has a decent shot at 100 tomorrow. CR could make a run at it too late in the day. 850mb temps a bit too cool east of the Mississippi to make a serious run at 100 IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 Yeah DVN has been slowly bumping up temps each day since last Thursday. Point up to 96 tomorrow and 95 Tue for much of the QCA. 30-40mph winds with that kind of heat is always kind of cool. Those winds should only help to dry out the topsoil as well I would think. I think the soils will have a good shot at drying out here, but south and west of Chicago - I doubt it. The talk of storms tonight and tomorrow may keep areas near here on north a bit cooler. That's probably why my highs were knocked down a few degrees. Edit: The rain only soaked in about 1 3/4" here. Soils in Kankakee County are dripping wet I'm sure! Quote from LOT: THE STRONG WAA AND RETURN OF MOISTURE RICH LOW LEVEL AIR IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MN LATER TODAY. WHILE THE MEAN FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE W ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAY TURN SE AS IT FEEDS ON THE STRONG LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND TRACKS DOWN THE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS. MAJORITY OF MODELS HAVE THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING ESE ACROSS WI AND BYPASSING MOST OR ALL OF IL SO ONLY HAVE 15-30 PCT POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES... WITH HIGHEST POPS AS ONE APPROACHES THE WI BORDER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 My point and click is up to 95, I find that kind of hard to believe. Hopefully that thunderstorm complex can make its way far enough south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 I'm wondering how much impact the wet soils will have on temperatures this coming week. Maybe low to mid 90s at best? It depends upon how much rain any one area got. I had 0.05" during a brief midday thunderstorm yesterday, and, by supper-time, the soil looked hardly as if it had rained. Overnight, I had 0.35". With evaporation rates this time of year on the order of 0.20" - 0.30" per sunny day (like today), soil-moisture conditions will be back to where they were prior to this weekend by tomorrow in my area and much of the rest of northern Illinois north of I-88. Areas like Kankakee County, etc., that had several inches of rain might have some lasting effects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 The heat/wind combination looks pretty impressive tomorrow especially for you guys farther north. Could easily envision mid/upper 90's and occasional gusts over 40 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 The heat/wind combination looks pretty impressive tomorrow especially for you guys farther north. Could easily envision mid/upper 90's and occasional gusts over 40 mph. Usually our hottest days are windy like that. If it's just hot with light winds then there nothing to stop a lake breeze, then that cuts the warming off usually around 90° any time. It will be interesting to see if any debris clouds are around in the morning to interfere with heating. Still 92° predicted here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 I don't know if there is an easy way to figure this but it would be interesting to know the last time there was a temp of 95 with 40 mph winds at ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 I don't know if there is an easy way to figure this but it would be interesting to know the last time there was a temp of 95 with 40 mph winds at ORD. I took a look into this question using the MRCC's climate-records database (to which you need a subscription). Hourly data (which would contain wind velocities) are available only back to 1996. Hence, first, I compiled all dates on which the temperature was 95 degrees or higher, starting from the present and going back to 1996. Then, I pulled up the hourly observations for each of those dates. Scanning through the hourly observations, the highest sustained wind speed that I could find was 21 knots. Of course, there may have been gusts to 40 MPH on any of these dates. It seems to me that, at least for inland locations in the Chicago area, such days are usually a bit breezy but not usually obnoxiously windy, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 I took a look into this question using the MRCC's climate-records database (to which you need a subscription). Hourly data (which would contain wind velocities) are available only back to 1996. Hence, first, I compiled all dates on which the temperature was 95 degrees or higher, starting from the present and going back to 1996. Then, I pulled up the hourly observations for each of those dates. Scanning through the hourly observations, the highest sustained wind speed that I could find was 21 knots. Of course, there may have been gusts to 40 MPH on any of these dates. It seems to me that, at least for inland locations in the Chicago area, such days are usually a bit breezy but not usually obnoxiously windy, either. I went through F6's, which have maximum wind gusts, back to 1998 and I couldn't find a temp AOA 95 concurrent with a gust of 40 mph. There were a few instances in which both of those events occurred on the same day but not at the same time (late evening gusty thunderstorms). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 LOT zone for Rockford. MONDAY VERY WINDY. PARTLY CLOUDY. HOT. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING BECOMING SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 I went through F6's, which have maximum wind gusts, back to 1998 and I couldn't find a temp AOA 95 concurrent with a gust of 40 mph. There were a few instances in which both of those events occurred on the same day but not at the same time (late evening gusty thunderstorms). Went back to 1980 and still couldn't find one at ORD. There was an ob of 98F with a 35 mph gust on 7/10/1984 so that is similar to what could happen tomorrow. It seems to be an uncommon occurrence to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Wind fields seem perhaps a touch weaker on the 00z runs, but really just noise level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 lol oh JB Joe Bastardi@BigJoeBastardi Tstorms to limit chicago temps again tomorrow.. no 100, may not even be 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 18, 2012 Author Share Posted June 18, 2012 FWIW...Sounding off of the 2z RR has ORD close to 38C at 20z. Mixing to above 850mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 lol oh JB Joe Bastardi@BigJoeBastardi Tstorms to limit chicago temps again tomorrow.. no 100, may not even be 90. I think he meant Chicago's Northern Suburb (aka Milwaukee). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 FWIW...Sounding off of the 2z RR has ORD close to 38C at 20z. Mixing to above 850mb. The NAM is also mixing to around/just above 850 mb but the temp profiles don't appear warm enough for triple digits. Will be interesting to watch...purely anectodally speaking it seems like the RR has overshot temps on the really hot days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 I think he meant Chicago's Northern Suburb (aka Milwaukee). Haha, I just saw that. Was just about to post. If the 12z NMM played out, then yeah that statement could come true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Looks like about 95 here tomorrow. Probably about the same Tue and Wed. 850 temps aren't warm enough to get us to 100 this go around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Didn't a bunch of people die in the heat wave back in the 90's in Chicago? How warm was it then? Probably not good when ChiTown gets overheated... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Didn't a bunch of people die in the heat wave back in the 90's in Chicago? How warm was it then? Probably not good when ChiTown gets overheated... Yeah, 1995: 500-600 people died from three days over 100° (100-105) HI: Up to 125° at MDW. Lows in the lower 80s set records as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Yeah, 1995: 500-600 people died from three days over 100° (100-105) HI: Up to 112. Lows in the lower 80s set records as well. LOT has a good writeup for anyone who hasn't seen it. The high dewpoints and very warm nights are what really made that a catastrophe. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lot/science/jul1395/jul1395.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 I'm still amazed whenever I see this map It's just really difficult to get those kind of 850 mb temps in N IL. If there would've been mixing to 850 mb then you would've been looking at readings approaching 110F. I've checked some reanalysis maps from those classic heat waves in the 1930's and some of those days had 850 mb temps of 30C as far east as IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 lol oh JB Joe Bastardi@BigJoeBastardi Tstorms to limit chicago temps again tomorrow.. no 100, may not even be 90. Meh.These MCSs sure can make a mess of everything... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 18, 2012 Author Share Posted June 18, 2012 The NAM is also mixing to around/just above 850 mb but the temp profiles don't appear warm enough for triple digits. Will be interesting to watch...purely anectodally speaking it seems like the RR has overshot temps on the really hot days. Indeed. I'm thinking 96/97 for ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 It does look like a lake enhanced outflow boundary is a good possibility..i'll probably top out around 90 lakeside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Lots of clouds this morning just now now clearing out. Thinking low 90s here. 11:30am: Up to 87°, higher dewpoints getting mixed out. This is one of those allergy days for me... uuggh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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