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Mid June Heat Wave


Chicago Storm

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Yeah, the models have not been good soldiers of virtue with the 500mb pattern. The ECMWF literally denied the heatridge type pattern for several runs.

The 12z ECMWF throttles the heat way up like the 00z. Except it pushed it back a hair into Monday of next week. Its interesting to watch these GFS vs Euro matches in the Summer months.

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LOT

JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE MODELS ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT WITH A PERIOD

OF 3 TO 4 DAYS NEXT WEEK BEING VERY WARM IF NOT HOT...AS WELL AS

DRY. MONDAY IN PARTICULAR HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE VERY HOT AS THE

21Z FORECAST SOUNDING FROM THE NAM AT ORD HAS A SURFACE TEMP OF

96. DEEP MIXING WOULD SUGGEST THIS IS REASONABLE AND HAVE BUMPED

TEMPS INTO THE MID 90S MOST AREAS FOR HIGHS MONDAY AND THIS VERY

WELL COULD BE TOO COOL. THIS DEEP MIXING WILL ALSO ALLOW VERY

STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. COULD EASILY SEE WIND

GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE 30 KT RANGE...POSSIBLY HIGHER. WHILE

THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE IS THE THE

POTENTIAL FOR MUCH DRIER AIR TO MIX THE SURFACE DURING THE

AFTERNOONS NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...HAVE DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE

LOWER 60S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IF THIS OCCURS...

WHILE IT WILL BE HOT/VERY HOT...HEAT INDEX LEVELS MAY NOT BE TOO

HIGH...THOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY CREEP UP AT NIGHT...WITH

LITTLE/NO MIXING.

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That's pretty hot! I think all the upper 90s, 100°+ temperatures I've seen here have been in either July or August. Will be interesting to see how hot it gets here. I got 92° for tomorrow, which seems a little high.

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LOT

ENDED UP BUMPING UP HIGHS OR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO BE INTO

THE UPPER 90 RANGE /AND CAN SEE A POSSIBLE 100 MARK SOMEWHERE

ACROSS THE REGION/ IN THAT TIME. NOT ONLY WILL IT BE HOT ON

MONDAY...IT WILL BE INCREDIBLY WINDY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW

MIXED LAYER WINDS BREACHING THE 30KT RANGE.

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LOT

ENDED UP BUMPING UP HIGHS OR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO BE INTO

THE UPPER 90 RANGE /AND CAN SEE A POSSIBLE 100 MARK SOMEWHERE

ACROSS THE REGION/ IN THAT TIME. NOT ONLY WILL IT BE HOT ON

MONDAY...IT WILL BE INCREDIBLY WINDY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW

MIXED LAYER WINDS BREACHING THE 30KT RANGE.

Their AFD doesn't jibe with the PFM or ZFP which have mid 90's. I guess we go with the actual discussion in this case.

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LOT

ENDED UP BUMPING UP HIGHS OR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO BE INTO

THE UPPER 90 RANGE /AND CAN SEE A POSSIBLE 100 MARK SOMEWHERE

ACROSS THE REGION/ IN THAT TIME. NOT ONLY WILL IT BE HOT ON

MONDAY...IT WILL BE INCREDIBLY WINDY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW

MIXED LAYER WINDS BREACHING THE 30KT RANGE.

DVN being more conservative. Going with low to mid 90s.

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