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E PA/NJ/DE/NE MD/Elko, NV/Big Jim: OBS 12/15 - 12/25


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Good Morning AllCurrent Obs: 0530T=27FP=29.66 FH=75%DP=19FW= Calm 3MPH N Ocean County NJ is now under a Blizzard Warning and NWS Mt Holly is calling from 11 to 19" of snow here at the Jersey Shore. I am thinking that the snow totals may be on the lesser side of the range. Ocean temp off of Sandy Hook is 36F - cold for this time of year - still above freezing and if this thing gets wrapped up to tight it may cause some mixing issues with temp just at freezing at height of the storm - we'll see - either way people last night at Christmas party where like snow? What snow? Showed them the weather channel local forecast and friends left early to get home to Baltimore last night. Good thing there are plenty of leftovers from Christmas thumbsupsmileyanim.gifFrom Mt Holy Forecast Discussion:WORKING AGAINST VERY ROBUST SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS ARE STRONG WINDS BELOWTHE SNOW GROWTH REGION AND SOME TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM LAYERCAPABLE OF GENERATING P-TYPE ISSUES THAT WILL WRAP AROUND THEDEVELOPING STORM AND TRY TO MOVE OVER LAND. NO MODEL ISFORECASTING ANY KIND OF A CHANGEOVER ON LAND, AND THE FORECASTWON`T GO THERE AT THIS POINT. DYNAMIC COOLING OVER LAND LIKELYWILL BE SUFFICIENT TO STAVE OFF ANY MIXING.

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I think if all of us in eastern PA (east of a line from AVP to RDG) go under the assumption we'll receive somewhere between 4-8 inches of snow, we shouldn't be dissappointed in the end. I've been hedging on the lower side of that range in the hopes that I am wrong and the higher end amount is reached....or maybe even more. :whistle:

My official "backyard forecast" is for 5.5 inches. We'll see....

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Nothing to report yet. I thought I may see light snow falling when I woke up but it looks like the precip is pretty tightly compacted to the SE.

After last year I got very annoyed with tight gradients, but it looks like it is happening again today. Hopefully it is further west than appears imminent.

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Nothing to report yet. I thought I may see light snow falling when I woke up but it looks like the precip is pretty tightly compacted to the SE.

After last year I got very annoyed with tight gradients, but it looks like it is happening again today. Hopefully it is further west than appears imminent.

In Philly?

I'm 100 miles NW and have flurries falling.

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Just now it looks like the snow is making tiny progress over the Del. River. For whatever reason it was hitting the NJ/PA border and just stopping...how close is that high pressure to the west?

Hopefully we see snow within the next hour. Congrats to Jersey, again, however. This is a coastal special!

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we getting screwed again just like last december buddy, accuweather just said expect only 2-3" in pottstown so probably 3-4" here. Last year it was the huge ene running gradient this year east to west

cloudy 28F

It's kind of frustrating to be on the short side of the gradient storm after storm, isn't it? I think when all is said and done here in my neck of the woods, we end up with only advisory criteria accumulations at best.

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