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E PA/NJ/DE/NE MD/Elko, NV/Big Jim: OBS 12/15 - 12/25


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RDG 6.0

ABE: 7.5

PHL: 9.5

TTN: 9.5

ACY: 5.0

I am betting on quite a bit of mixing at the Jersey Coast and Long Island as the storm is tracking a little too close for those spots....this will no doubt change before verification but for now that is my forecast

Not a bad call at all, if we here west of I-476 and Rt 202 are going to see 6-10", coastal locations like ACY or Long Island could have issues with mixing or dry-slotting at some point.

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I'll take the conservative approach, and hope to be underdone.

RDG: 2.5

ABE: 5.0

PHL: 8.0

TTN: 11.0

ACY: 13.0

RDG: 4.0

ABE: 6.0

PHL: 10.5

TTN: 12.5

ACY: 16.0

I think a solution maybe about 15-20 miles east of the GFS ends up being right. 12:1 ratios on the east side of the heavy QPF and 17:1 on the west side.

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RDG: 4.0

ABE: 6.0

PHL: 10.5

TTN: 12.5

ACY: 16.0

I think a solution maybe about 15-20 miles east of the GFS ends up being right. 12:1 ratios on the east side of the heavy QPF and 17:1 on the west side.

Solid numbers there. Eastern PA will be battle ground with the dramatic drop off in QPF that will set up somewhere. Maybe between CXY and RDG (north to south)......or maybe between RDG and PHL (north to south). I'm leaning toward that line being between RDG and PHL corridor.

Oh, a few flurries falling here now at 3pm. Temperature is 34.

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I like how things are lining up for locations south and east of I-78. If you take a look at the NWS radar (http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php)there is an overall expansion of the precipitation shield in Kentucky and Tennessee. Likewise, one can clearly see the moisture flooding in from the eastern coast of Florida, a sign that our low level jet is beginning to form. To add some weeniesm to the mess, I have noted impressive and sustained pressure falls over the panhandle of Florida which may in fact be more robust than the models are picking up on. Ultimately it will come down to NOWcasting and good old fashioned meteorological know-how. Happy Christmas and cheers!

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It's lightly snowing in parts of Southern NJ-I just came back from Northfield about an hour ago and SeNJWx posted a pic on Facebook that he has a dusting in his area near Egg Harbor City.

Here in Toms River it's just overcast right now. Going to head to bed early to wake up early to track the storm. :)

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High today 29.8

AM Low 22.7

Currently cloudy 26.5

DP 20.9

Latest Wxsim before Oz runs shows 8" to 13" here in the NW Philadelphia burbs....I have my doubts about that higher end total...but if we do reach 12" of snow that would be our 5th such snowfall of that amount or higher since December 19, 2009

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I am north of tampa right now and the slug of moisture that came through was more than they expected with some t-showers. This should help the storm with the 30 mph wind field increasing here too. Wish I was back up there but the last 3 days of 70 degree weather was nice

RDG: 14.0"

ABE: 16.5"

PHL: 19.0"

TTN: 18.0"

ACY: 17.5"

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I am north of tampa right now and the slug of moisture that came through was more than they expected with some t-showers. This should help the storm with the 30 mph wind field increasing here too. Wish I was back up there but the last 3 days of 70 degree weather was nice

RDG: 14.0"

ABE: 16.5"

PHL: 19.0"

TTN: 18.0"

ACY: 17.5"

LOL hope your totals verify. :drunk:

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