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E PA/NJ/DE/NE MD/Elko, NV/Big Jim: OBS 12/15 - 12/25


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What are the chances of having a 5 degree below normal December and no measurable snow?

Probably doesn't happen that often.

Only 2 days this month out of 23 have had measurable precip - all of it rain.

Yes its truly an awful thing, i would rather have a winter month be torch warm then that

In the fall i saw a bunch of analog comparisons to the winter of 1989-90 with the brutal cold december. That december was also snowless, or very nearly so

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Unless things quickly change we will be headed into 2011 with our lowest snowfall total in 4 years to that point -- 0.8" has fallen so far at KAVP. In 2006-07 we had 0.2" as we flipped the calendar.

Now in 06-07 we had a surge in the second half and finished with around 50". Will that happen again?

If it weren't for that rogue 2" on Thanksgiving morning, I'd only have a trace.

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Finally on Vacation!

Toms River Obs:

T=35F

W= 13 mph

P= 29.87 F

H = 48%

Quick POB on upcoming event: ECWF currently 1 - 1.25 QPF .10 QPF; GFS currently .25 to .50; NAM - I threw out - it I have decided to go to Cancun on Christmas break -sun.gifall others ???? - looks like it will stay cold enough for snow throughout along coastal NJ (if happens) So taking all models into account and throwing it into the IMBY weather computer - I will say 4-8" around an inch w/locally higher amounts along coastal communities. Reasoning - think that there will be consensus among the Euro and GFS - but Euro will shift a bit more east and GFS jogs a tad west east.

Stocked up on all the essentials to read snowcasting and watch football on Sunday -- Bread, Milk, cold cuts, Beerthumbsupsmileyanim.gif

Fixed

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Time to terminate this thread in favor of a new one focusing on pre-storm obs. Better rename this thread to something like "12/15-24", too.

Merry Christmas Ray! When did you get back to Jersey? Im hearing it may start tonight with slippery roads by tomorrow morning.

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I didn't really want to start a new thread for snowfall guesses in eastern PA.

Anyone want to give their best guess (one number, no ranges) for the following 5 locations in our obs. area???

RDG:

ABE:

PHL:

TTN:

ACY:

I'll take the conservative approach, and hope to be underdone.

RDG: 2.5

ABE: 5.0

PHL: 8.0

TTN: 11.0

ACY: 13.0

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