Riptide Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Sounds like a recipe for Weather Model Soup (from Mt Holly): KIND OF AN ECLECTIC COMBINATION OF MODELS WE DECIDED TO USE FOR THESHORT TERM BASED ON INITIALIZATION. FIRST THEJET STREAK IN MISSOURIIS PROBABLY WITHIN THE MODEL NOISE LEVEL, BUT WAS INITIALIZED UP TO10 KNOTS TOO WEAK PENDING ON MODEL OF CHOICE. SECOND THE SHORT WAVEIN WESTERN MINNESOTA WAS HANDLED THE BEST BY THE WRF-NMM WHICH HADECMWF SUPPORT FOR ITS EVOLUTION. THROUGH TONIGHT WE DECIDED TO GOWITH THE RGEM MODEL WHICH HANDLED BOTH FEATURES THE CLOSEST AND THENSEGUED TO A ECMWF/WRF-NMM COMPROMISE FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. Toms River Obs: Feels like snow, smells like snow - must be chicken Warmer this morning up to 27F (14F yesterday)P = 30.01"DP = 16FH = 74 % Would be nice for a white Christmas - as it is looking right now GFS has precip on border rain/snow (S/C coastal NJ) line until the storm winds up and heads a bit north and east. Heavier precip very close on Saturday but most seems to stay south and east - a few days away - fun to watch though One reason why I am glad the ensembles are more suppressed than the OP. The snow is so close, it really is. No significant losses though, there will be many more events and snow chances to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoGlobe Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Here's a walk down memory lane for the 1966 Christmas snowstorm, triggered by my memory of the thunder snow. The link is to a dead blog on the topic over at Accuweather. Great to see the old hand-posted weather maps. I wonder how the modeling handled this at 240 hours out? My link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I had a low of 17 this morning, and a high of 31.3. Yesterdays high of 34 killed my streak of temps staying below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Not often we get to see this around here. Christmas Day: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 27. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Not often we get to see this around here. Christmas Day: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 27. Chance of precipitation is 50%. I know your not a big fan of winter, but you got to love that forecast for Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I know your not a big fan of winter, but you got to love that forecast for Christmas! For Christmas, yes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Clear skies for Total Lunar Eclipse tonight?????? (fingers crossed) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Another beautiful winter day here in the NW Philly burbs...7th straight day no higher than 33 degrees (4 sub freezing) Hi today 32.9 (so far) Lo 21.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Bangor Pa 6:30 pm Flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Bangor Pa 6:30 pm Flurries. I thought I saw a few flakes in Forks Twp. on my way home! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 high of 36.4° today morning low 22.0° wow this is a dead thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 It was cold and windy today. Had some flurries. Status quo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Tom, what is the 00z GFS showing QPF-wise for the Philly suburbs where I am? More like Allentown or Philly's total? Great run, but I'd like to see it twice in a row again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 just a quick note before bed, its CRAZY windy outside right now..didn't expect this in the valley! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scotty Lightning Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 25 degrees outside with the wind blowing close to 10mph....and I am outside in basketball shorts and a sweatshirt watching the eclipse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 "Potential" future OBS for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 POPs are creeping up... Sunday: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 24. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Sunday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy and blustery, with a low around 13. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Monday: Snow likely. Cloudy and blustery, with a high near 24. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 high hit 40.8° today, probably the first time in about 11 days that we got above 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 28.0F Nice night on Christmas Eve Eve Eve Eve Santa, can you bring me the 12z Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Does Angelo's deliver on Christmas day? I might need a contingency plan for dinner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Quasi weather ob. Trying to understand why I am seeing thousands of snow geese flying north this morning high above the Delaware in NE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Nice day underway here in NW Chesco PA my current Wxsim forecast has a sunny and chilly forecast for the upcoming holiday weekend Saturday: Partly cloudy. High 34. Wind northwest around 12 mph. Saturday night: Clear in the evening, becoming mostly clear after midnight. Low 19. Wind northwest around 9 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High 31. Wind northwest around 10 mph. Sunday night: Clear. Low 16. Wind north-northwest around 10 mph. Monday: Sunny. High 28. Wind north around 13 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allman15 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Nice day underway here in NW Chesco PA my current Wxsim forecast has a sunny and chilly forecast for the upcoming holiday weekend Saturday: Partly cloudy. High 34. Wind northwest around 12 mph. Saturday night: Clear in the evening, becoming mostly clear after midnight. Low 19. Wind northwest around 9 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High 31. Wind northwest around 10 mph. Sunday night: Clear. Low 16. Wind north-northwest around 10 mph. Monday: Sunny. High 28. Wind north around 13 mph. who do you follow......wxsim or JB????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 neither....NWS is primary then Wxsim for some details closer in to storm. JB for overall long range pattern. Why what say you?? who do you follow......wxsim or JB????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Nice day underway here in NW Chesco PA my current Wxsim forecast has a sunny and chilly forecast for the upcoming holiday weekend It is a nice day today. Winds are lighter than the past few days, and temps in the upper 30's feel pretty warm when standing in the sun. Regarding your Wxsim forecast, it might be a bit off for Sunday/Monday - if the last 4 to 5 runs of the Euro (particularly today's 12z run) are close to being correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yep...it really relies almost exclusively on the GFS past 72 hours so....if the GFS moves toward the EURO it will start to show snow with the new runs It is a nice day today. Winds are lighter than the past few days, and temps in the upper 30's feel pretty warm when standing in the sun. Regarding your Wxsim forecast, it might be a bit off for Sunday/Monday - if the last 4 to 5 runs of the Euro (particularly today's 12z run) are close to being correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Quite windy tonight up here. Gusts rattling the windows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Need obs of snowfall vcnty MPO. wd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WebBreaker63 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Finally on Vacation! Toms River Obs: T=30F W= 18 mph - higher gusts (still can't believe it is still this windy) P= 29.61 F H = 50% Quick POB on upcoming event: ECWF currently 1 - 1.25 QPF; GFS currently .25 to .50; NAM - I threw out - it decided to go to Cancun on Christmas break - all others ???? - looks like it will stay cold enough for snow throughout along coastal NJ (if happens) So taking all models into account and throwing it into the IMBY weather computer - I will say 4-8" w/locally higher amounts along coastal communities. Reasoning - think that there will be consensus among the Euro and GFS - but Euro will shift a bit more east and GFS jogs a tad west. Stocked up on all the essentials to read snowcasting and watch football on Sunday -- Bread, Milk, cold cuts, Beer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 What are the chances of having a 5 degree below normal December and no measurable snow? Probably doesn't happen that often. Only 2 days this month out of 23 have had measurable precip - all of it rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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