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E PA/NJ/DE/NE MD/Elko, NV/Big Jim: OBS 12/15 - 12/25


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ray are you going to do a standby for the 0z euro, or do you think this is a lock and flying back?

Realistically its not a lock at all... but I booked anyway. I might've jumped the gun a bit, but there's other things I can do at home if this thing doesn't pan out. I don't want to exhaust myself by staying up for the EC, so I probably won't.

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My mom is driving through Lakewood into Toms River right now-numerous spin outs right near Rts.9 and 70.

Took me over 2 hours to get home -- roads were frozen to begin with and as soon as the light snow hit it, that combined with the tires melting the snow and then it re-freezing -- very bad today.

Can't believe how a dusting of snow crippled everything... Sunday should be different, either you won't be driving or there will be enough snow under your wheels for tractionthumbsupsmileyanim.gif

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Took me over 2 hours to get home -- roads were frozen to begin with and as soon as the light snow hit it, that combined with the tires melting the snow and then it re-freezing -- very bad today.

Can't believe how a dusting of snow crippled everything... Sunday should be different, either you won't be driving or there will be enough snow under your wheels for tractionthumbsupsmileyanim.gif

I remember we had another snow like this back in either 2004 or 2005- I was at OCC when my classes were canceled in the late afternoon; getting home was definitely interesting as the surface was cold so everything froze on contact. :snowman:

As for Sunday I think we should be able to get above freezing by then so the roads won't be icy.

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I remember we had another snow like this back in either 2004 or 2005- I was at OCC when my classes were canceled in the late afternoon; getting home was definitely interesting as the surface was cold so everything froze on contact. :snowman:

As for Sunday I think we should be able to get above freezing by then so the roads won't be icy.

Looks like ECWF shifted to the east a couple hundred miles - so less snow west of here but more snow along coast (no mixing issues) - if forecast holds and who knows if it will- models will pull this a little more west today (historical trend) and then there is the cold continent/warmer Atlantic scenario that might also pull it westward. We'll see what the day brings...

0600 Toms River Obs:

T - 19F

P - 29.89

H - 86%

DP - 12F

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Looks like ECWF shifted to the east a couple hundred miles - so less snow west of here but more snow along coast (no mixing issues) - if forecast holds and who knows if it will- models will pull this a little more west today (historical trend) and then there is the cold continent/warmer Atlantic scenario that might also pull it westward. We'll see what the day brings...

0600 Toms River Obs:

T - 19F

P - 29.89

H - 86%

DP - 12F

It's not just shifted east but it's a helluva lot weaker to boot.

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a surprise coating outside as I am getting ready for work...These nocturnal lake effect teases are getting old.

We got 1/4 inch yesterday....it was so cold....ground too....that is actually made driving very dangerous.....sheet of ice in many spots....loads of accidents.....and just enough for a bit of holiday scenic magic this morning. The towns were not prepared to salt or sand. Traffic last night locally and on the GSP, 34 and 35 was a mess as accidents had to be cleared. It was not a matter of "knowing how to drive in the snow" or what tires or type of car you have.

When you get the snow on the roads with marginal surface temps and air temps in the 20's......black ice forms rapidly and is covered by the additional snow as intensity picked up. It appears that traffic volume did not help much because the GSP even froze up....kind of a flash freeze if you will.

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50% coverage of frazil ice on Delaware River this AM from Martins Creek (7 mi. North of Easton), to Easton, PA free Bridge. One location had frazil rafts on one side of the river.

Low of 12 in Martins Creek , 19 in Easton

Pretty early for this, no? BTW, formerly "Creekside"?

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within a couple of days of the event the nam and gfs are more reliable.

not entirely. the METS say the EURO is pretty good in the 60-96hr time range, which last nites 0z run falls into......so considering it was OTS the past couple days only to show 1 SMALL shift to the NW and then yesterdays 12z which showed a major shift to the NW, only to go back to the OTS solution ..... i think its clear the shift yesterday was a hiccup, NOT a trend...on the EURO at least.

NAM is garbage in the 3day range. i pay attention to it like 24hr in advance of the storm....thats when it usually does a pretty good job.

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not entirely. the METS say the EURO is pretty good in the 60-96hr time range, which last nites 0z run falls into......so considering it was OTS the past couple days only to show 1 SMALL shift to the NW and then yesterdays 12z which showed a major shift to the NW, only to go back to the OTS solution ..... i think its clear the shift yesterday was a hiccup, NOT a trend...on the EURO at least.

NAM is garbage in the 3day range. i pay attention to it like 24hr in advance of the storm....thats when it usually does a pretty good job.

That was hardly a hiccup, the other models did'nt go that far.

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A little light snow flurry beginning here in NW Chesco

AM Low 15.8

Current temp 22.5

Note: Through yesterday this month is at (7.1) degrees below normal this currently stands at the 6th coldest December in my 117 year local data base. This is almost certain to be the coldest December since 1989

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