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E PA/NJ/DE/NE MD/Elko, NV/Big Jim: OBS 12/15 - 12/25


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Uggh, look down to VA, and that dry air just eating that snow away...very bad sign for those west of NJ...

Absolutely agree. But we knew this all along this was a NJ/NYC/PHL special (again). I dont see many spots in Luzerne/Lackawanna getting over an inch outta this.

Cloudy with the sun peeking through here in the great Wyoming Valley--with last night's coating evaporated, blown away.

At the same time I would not be shocked to see some places in the Poconos a solid 6-10 especially with ratios.

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Absolutely agree. But we knew this all along this was a NJ/NYC/PHL special (again). I dont see many spots in Luzerne/Lackawanna getting over an inch outta this.

Cloudy with the sun peeking through here in the great Wyoming Valley--with last night's coating evaporated, blown away.

At the same time I would not be shocked to see some places in the Poconos a solid 6-10 especially with ratios.

We can only hope that this La Nina does as expected and then we're getting the crushing while NYC is turning over to rain.

Better chance of it when I get back to Hazleton in 2 weeks, that's for sure.

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Wondering why in their most recent update of thier Warnings for Lebanon, Lancaster and Schukyill Co's at 11:26 this morning their snow totals were increased to a max of 10 inches, pretty far west for that, wondering what State College is thinking

bucks county forecast totals are 6-12" in the latest updates. my fearless forecast is 4-6"

Started flurries here

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Blizzard warnings expanded..

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

-- Changed Discussion --

SOME IMPORTANT CHANGES FORTHCOMING WITH THIS UPDATE. BASED ON

EARLIER THINKING...AND WITH 12Z GFS/NAM BOTH IN CLOSE PROXIMITY

ON LOW TRACK AND QPF...HAVE BUMPED UP SNOW TOTALS AND ALSO

EXPANDED BLIZZARD WARNINGS TO THE ENTIRE CWA. INTENSE MESOSCALE

BANDING EXPECTED TO PIVOT INTO NYC METRO AND WESTERN/CENTRAL LONG

ISLAND LATER TODAY/TONIGHT SHOULD DELIVER STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL OF

15-20 INCHES...LOCALLY AS MUCH AS 2 FEET. OTHER AREAS IN THE CWA

SHOULD SEE 12-18 INCHES. WIND WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR ON WHAT

WOULD OTHERWISE HAVE BEEN EXCELLENT SNOW RATIOS OF 15-1 OR 20-1

GIVEN INTENSE LIFT AT IDEAL SNOW GROWTH TEMPERATURES ALOFT... WITH

ROEBBER NEURAL NET ALGORITHM SUGGESTING GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF

RATIOS UNDER 10-1...SO USED CLIMATOLOGICAL 11-1 RATIO INSTEAD AND

SCALED DOWN WHERE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING. NAM/GFS ALSO IN

CLOSER AGREEMENT ON MIXING BEING LIMITED TO THE SOUTH FORK OF

EASTERN LONG ISLAND...SO WILL HAVE LOWER AMOUNTS MAINLY 6-12

INCHES THERE.

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Absolutely agree. But we knew this all along this was a NJ/NYC/PHL special (again). I dont see many spots in Luzerne/Lackawanna getting over an inch outta this.

Cloudy with the sun peeking through here in the great Wyoming Valley--with last night's coating evaporated, blown away.

At the same time I would not be shocked to see some places in the Poconos a solid 6-10 especially with ratios.

Same thing currently in Tamaqua.

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