Day 10 euro

[FoothillsNC]

Checkout how warm the waters over south greenland are now. They will get even warmer this week, with the nice cold pool below them off of Newfoundland. I think the ocean/atmosphere connection being established this early willmean a very -NAO for at least December and possibly the entire winter. That means we will just need some spurts of a +PNA to get a storm IMO. Only prob is the pacific is just so bad.

Good find. Does anyone have last years map at this time? The models continue to point to a very neg NAO soon, with a slow rise afterward. The good thing I guess is the models look like they have brought it up above zero several times but didn't verify, it keeps only hitting neutral before diving again. I think this is a good sign for later on in the Winter, with no end in sight. Eventually, we'll have a period of extreme blocking, probably surpassing last years in my opinion, and then we'll have our first chance at wintry precip.

[Carvers Gap]

Good find. Does anyone have last years map at this time? The models continue to point to a very neg NAO soon, with a slow rise afterward. The good thing I guess is the models look like they have brought it up above zero several times but didn't verify, it keeps only hitting neutral before diving again. I think this is a good sign for later on in the Winter, with no end in sight. Eventually, we'll have a period of extreme blocking, probably surpassing last years in my opinion, and then we'll have our first chance at wintry precip.

Thanks to you and HKY_WX for the discussion.

Actually lost power today for five hours due to moderate winds moving through my area - right at Thanksgiving dinner time! It wasn't a huge event, but enough to coax a limb out of a tree and onto a power line.

Edit: Winds were gusting 20-30 mph / Hit 70 F at KTRI

[FoothillsNC]

Thanks to you and HKY_WX for the discussion.

Actually lost power today for five hours due to moderate winds moving through my area - right at Thanksgiving dinner time! It wasn't a huge event, but enough to coax a limb out of a tree and onto a power line.

Edit: Winds were gusting 20-30 mph / Hit 70 F at KTRI

you may end up with a few minutes of sleet or light snowflakes before the moisture exits tomorrow night in your area, wouldn't be much , but a token. Tupelo hit 78 today, almost 80 at Thanksgiving.

[Carvers Gap]

you may end up with a few minutes of sleet or light snowflakes before the moisture exits tomorrow night in your area, wouldn't be much , but a token. Tupelo hit 78 today, almost 80 at Thanksgiving.

Memphis is 41 F right now and KTRI is 60 F @ 11:00 PM.

Edit: And yes, I'll take any snow I can get in November...

[BullCityWx]

Didn't we get screwed by the pacific in 07-08?

[FoothillsNC]

Didn't we get screwed by the pacific in 07-08?

yes. One of the lowest snow winters ever for our area. I'm not sure of the PDO, EPO and NAO but I think they were opposite of now, or atleast 2 of the 3. I'm not expecting the same results as that year, atleast lets hope not.

[Carvers Gap]

Didn't we get screwed by the pacific in 07-08?

In my area of NE TN, January 2008 was predicted (I think...) to be a very warm month. We wound up at + 0.3 which by January standards is pretty cool. We had two small snow events in the valleys after a warm December. Crazy, wild swings that winter. On January 3rd, we had a low of 8 F. On January 8th, we had a high of 71 F.

[dsaur]

Larry, Robert......Is it just me or am I seeing more omega blocks than unusual on the maps? The mythic storms of the future sure seem more mythic some how, and the blocking is occasionally very dramatic. There sure is a duzy on the 12! Thanks, Tony

[FoothillsNC]

Larry, Robert......Is it just me or am I seeing more omega blocks than unusual on the maps? The mythic storms of the future sure seem more mythic some how, and the blocking is occasionally very dramatic. There sure is a duzy on the 12! Thanks, Tony

The models are just having a hard time with the pattern, esp. the Pacific. So they respond in wild ways. Makes it hard to forecast very far out, the ensembles aren't much better, and shift daily. The sky's the limit. One thing that is lookng better is the chance of a heavy duty rain for Ga, East Coast next week. The models hint at a temporary cutting off west of the Apps, or slowing down. Either way its probably going to be a deep longwave, so I'm going with a very big rain event in North Georgia, for several reasons. Hate to call for heavy rain here, but part of the Carolinas sure will get into it, but the maximized region I'd think is in Ga.and SW NC. The storm is actually pretty close to closing off totally in teh Southeast, which would be a big snowstorm left of the track and under the center, but most likely the never-ending pacific parade would prevent that.

[WhiteoutWX]

The models are just having a hard time with the pattern, esp. the Pacific. So they respond in wild ways. Makes it hard to forecast very far out, the ensembles aren't much better, and shift daily. The sky's the limit. One thing that is lookng better is the chance of a heavy duty rain for Ga, East Coast next week. The models hint at a temporary cutting off west of the Apps, or slowing down. Either way its probably going to be a deep longwave, so I'm going with a very big rain event in North Georgia, for several reasons. Hate to call for heavy rain here, but part of the Carolinas sure will get into it, but the maximized region I'd think is in Ga.and SW NC. The storm is actually pretty close to closing off totally in teh Southeast, which would be a big snowstorm left of the track and under the center, but most likely the never-ending pacific parade would prevent that.

If only the PNA would switch positive, trough after trough coming into the west only dampens out anything trying to cutoff upstream... im quickly being reminded why I hate NINAs more than anything.

[NEGa]

<br />The models are just having a hard time with the pattern, esp. the Pacific. So they respond in wild ways. Makes it hard to forecast very far out, the ensembles aren't much better, and shift daily. The sky's the limit. One thing that is lookng better is the chance of a heavy duty rain for Ga, East Coast next week. The models hint at a temporary cutting off west of the Apps, or slowing down. Either way its probably going to be a deep longwave, so I'm going with a very big rain event in North Georgia, for several reasons. Hate to call for heavy rain here, but part of the Carolinas sure will get into it, but the maximized region I'd think is in Ga.and SW NC.  The storm is actually pretty close to closing off totally in teh Southeast, which would be a big snowstorm left of the track and under the center, but most likely the never-ending pacific parade would prevent that.<br />

At this point i would gladly take a soaking rain. The last few 'events' have fizzled imby

[FoothillsNC]

Checkout how warm the waters over south greenland are now. They will get even warmer this week, with the nice cold pool below them off of Newfoundland. I think the ocean/atmosphere connection being established this early willmean a very -NAO for at least December and possibly the entire winter. That means we will just need some spurts of a +PNA to get a storm IMO. Only prob is the pacific is just so bad.

The models are placing a megablock smack dab where your warmest anomalies are south of Greenland. If it has staying power, I'd say at some point in December the MidSouth or Midatlantic, maybe part of the Southeast will have its first winter storm. But first thing we have to get it to actually materialize.

[HKY_WX]

The models are placing a megablock smack dab where your warmest anomalies are south of Greenland. If it has staying power, I'd say at some point in December the MidSouth or Midatlantic, maybe part of the Southeast will have its first winter storm. But first thing we have to get it to actually materialize.

yea, i think dec is going to have a very neg NAO avg when it's all said and done.

[HKY_WX]

Here's the euro image. Atlantic is great, pacific is an improvement but still not so great. Could lead to something down the road. (ice?)

[FoothillsNC]

Here's the euro image. Atlantic is great, pacific is an improvement but still not so great. Could lead to something down the road. (ice?)

if this were later December, and on I'd love the looks of that map, (not the fact its 10 day). Theres a closed high British Columbia and the 50/50 in place, and Greenland block, with high pressure centered in Canada and ridging down. The Great Basin or Southwest system should move due east and tap the gulf, unless it got overly sheared. Don't think we'd have to worry about a Lakes Cutter with that look. As it stands its still early in December and the cold air being in place isn't a sure thing.

[Wow]

The day 10 threat remains.. lol

[strongwxnc]

Love that Brandon made this thread (Day 10 Euro) on 11/13 which was 17 days ago...

Finally man!

[HKY_WX]

Love that Brandon made this thread (Day 10 Euro) on 11/13 which was 17 days ago...

Finally man!

Ha, this thread turned out good!

[HKY_WX]

Sounds fun. I'd like a December 2000 repeat with a tornado watch followed by snow.

Be careful what u wish for!

[Lookout]

The day 10 threat remains.. lol

Yeah it sure looks interesting. 0z and 12z runs sure are a lot different than prior runs...which of course does not build much confidence.

[HKY_WX]

Yeah it sure looks interesting. 0z and 12z runs sure are a lot different than prior runs...which of course does not build much confidence.

Euro is way suppressed. Remember last winter? How the miller A's seemingly always trended a solid 100-200 miles further NW within 120 hours? Could be another interesting winter bro! The 120 hour event has little chance for us. Probably DC north clipper type system.

I have a feeling this winter could prove that the Atlantic is just as big of a player as the pacific.

[FoothillsNC]

we now have a good looking euro under 10 days. I like the looks of the day 5 through 10 now, but will it hold?

[strongwxnc]

I think this thread will work all winter long

[FoothillsNC]

if today's Euro still has the southern storm well in tact, then its time to start paying serious attention to the threat. I'm sure there's going to still be changes, but so far the Euro has held this southern stream atleast in tact without shearing. The big question is the eastern Canada vortex. the Euro holds it stationary, which would be good for us. I know its progged pretty far south, but I like the looks of the overall pattern portrayed on teh Euro right now, but not too optimistic yet that it will hold it.

[GaWx]

The 156 hour 12Z Euro is enough to tell me that the beautiful 0Z Euro modeled ATL-AHN and nearby areas' historic snow won't exist on this run because the northern jet/cold and dry air is looking to be too dominant. So, storm cancel for ATL-AHN. Messengers shouldn't be shot!

[FoothillsNC]

The 156 hour 12Z Euro is enough to tell me that the beautiful 0Z Euro modeled ATL-AHN and nearby areas' historic snow won't exist on this run because the northern jet/cold and dry air is looking to be too dominant. So, storm cancel for ATL-AHN. Messengers shouldn't be shot!

Your safe Larry. The guns are away. Looks like the Northeast vortex is going to be strong. But like Wes said last night, a lot of times those are portrayed as being too strong. I wouldn't give up the hunt yet because no model has the storm now (except CMC). Its still very unknown. And the most important part is at day 5 the shortwave coming into California is very healthy and at a good latitude. Climo perfect to ride due east. We'll see..the final chapter is definitely not written yet. I'd be extremely surprised to not see it come back on future runs. If nothing else, the extreme deep south still has a very good shot at wintry precip.

[dsaur]

The 156 hour 12Z Euro is enough to tell me that the beautiful 0Z Euro modeled ATL-AHN and nearby areas' historic snow won't exist on this run because the northern jet/cold and dry air is looking to be too dominant. So, storm cancel for ATL-AHN. Messengers shouldn't be shot!

Well, it is like poking a mountain through a needles eye for Dec. anyway... when it is 48 hours out let's hope you have better news And, if not, then don't you be the one to deliver it..find a designated messenger, lol. When it is Dec. it seems like it is always north of Gainesville. T

[Itunis]

Well, it is like poking a mountain through a needles eye for Dec. anyway... when it is 48 hours out let's hope you have better news And, if not, then don't you be the one to deliver it..find a designated messenger, lol. When it is Dec. it seems like it is always north of Gainesville. T

For small events it seems like it's often north of 20 and west of 85...but sometimes the really big storms like 3/09 and 2/12 have a "sweet spot" farther south. Nothing is worse than being in a location that rarely gets snow (the SE) and then missing an event to your south like what happened to me in March 09.

[dsaur]

For small events it seems like it's often north of 20 and west of 85...but sometimes the really big storms like 3/09 and 2/12 have a "sweet spot" farther south. Nothing is worse than being in a location that rarely gets snow (the SE) and then missing an event to your south like what happened to me in March 09.

Lol, awww man, don't be holding that grudge That was March anyway. A Dec. event down here is so rare, the only ones I can remember have always been flurries from Cartersville south, and a dusting to whatever above that into Tenn. I'm not saying we can't see a 100 year storm, but if I were betting at this early date, I'd be planning to go visit with Rosie or NeGa, or Dawson for a Dec. snow/sleet/ice of consequence. A lot of years it is Lookout's area that would get in on some cad icing....but I don't travel for zrain, lol.... ever. T

[HKY_WX]

something looks possible in that timeframe IMO. Dec 8-15. With the block and 50/50 low. Just need the correct timing. This first wave might be squashed, but it's still 8 days away. So i am unsure which wave could be something to watch for us.