Day 10 euro

[HKY_WX]

That block developing b/n day 7 and 10 is potentially significant. It meas we're seeing the continuation of the strong -NAO we've been seeing all year, even as we head into a strong nina winter. Noticed the new NAO number for Oct was also lower again back towards -1.00. This could be very meaningful for winter.

I would imagine if we were to fast forward to day 14, we would see that cold air mass over the plains be pushed into the east coast under a nice HP system. This is a case where the Atlantic is controlling the pattern.

[FoothillsNC]

That block developing b/n day 7 and 10 is potentially significant. It meas we're seeing the continuation of the strong -NAO we've been seeing all year, even as we head into a strong nina winter. Noticed the new NAO number for Oct was also lower again back towards -1.00. This could be very meaningful for winter.

I would imagine if we were to fast forward to day 14, we would see that cold air mass over the plains be pushed into the east coast under a nice HP system. This is a case where the Atlantic is controlling the pattern.

I've been watching that too HKY and am curious to see how many times it occurs in November. The forecast from CPC is for it to continue neg. fitting the rest of this year for the most part, and maybe part of a large 30 year cycle, but I couldn't say. Eventually , we're heading for a repeating pattern most likely IF the block does really form, usually they're pretty long lasting, so the airmasses this time of year will keep reloading in Asia, across the Arctic Circle, coming across the pole into Canada and head straight into the northern US as long as the deep trough remains centered, but at first we're fighting zonal flow this far south. The air looks colder than usual, so we're possibly setting up for an arctic outbreak somewhere in the country a little earlier than usual.

We only have around 7 strong la Ninas to look at in 60 years, they're not quite as common as other enso states I don't think, and this one if I'm not mistaken is a stronger "strong" one so the variability and what could happen is probably more unpredictable than say last years' Nino. They're like runaway trains and have extreme ampflication, which makes the season snow forecasting almost useless. Even though Nina in general are not good for the Southeast, a strong one might be actually better because if you luck up with a major storm that wraps in cold air, far south, you can get dumped on. It happened before in the early 70's. Even with a warmer than normal season, there's plenty of hope for a strong snowstorm.

[Eric]

I've been watching that too HKY and am curious to see how many times it occurs in November. The forecast from CPC is for it to continue neg. fitting the rest of this year for the most part, and maybe part of a large 30 year cycle, but I couldn't say. Eventually , we're heading for a repeating pattern most likely IF the block does really form, usually they're pretty long lasting, so the airmasses this time of year will keep reloading in Asia, across the Arctic Circle, coming across the pole into Canada and head straight into the northern US as long as the deep trough remains centered, but at first we're fighting zonal flow this far south. The air looks colder than usual, so we're possibly setting up for an arctic outbreak somewhere in the country a little earlier than usual.

We only have around 7 strong la Ninas to look at in 60 years, they're not quite as common as other enso states I don't think, and this one if I'm not mistaken is a stronger "strong" one so the variability and what could happen is probably more unpredictable than say last years' Nino. They're like runaway trains and have extreme ampflication, which makes the season snow forecasting almost useless. Even though Nina in general are not good for the Southeast, a strong one might be actually better because if you luck up with a major storm that wraps in cold air, far south, you can get dumped on. It happened before in the early 70's. Even with a warmer than normal season, there's plenty of hope for a strong snowstorm.

We're overdue for a significant December snowstorm. December 1971 and December 1973 come to mind. Of course, the December 1971 snowstorm was proceeded by incredible warmth for the rest of that month.

Speaking of December snowstorms, I was looking at Charlotte's snowfall data for the last quarter of the nineteenth century and it's amazing how snowy the Decembers were back then. Below is a monthly breakdown of the total snowfall for the years 1878-1899.

November - 0.3"

December - 56.3"

January - 48.6"

February - 49.3"

March - 14.0"

April - 3.6"

[FoothillsNC]

We're overdue for a significant December snowstorm. December 1971 and December 1973 come to mind. Of course, the December 1971 snowstorm was proceeded by incredible warmth for the rest of that month.

Speaking of December snowstorms, I was looking at Charlotte's snowfall data for the last quarter of the nineteenth century and it's amazing how snowy the Decembers were back then. Below is a monthly breakdown of the total snowfall for the years 1878-1899.

November - 0.3"

December - 56.3"

January - 48.6"

February - 49.3"

March - 14.0"

April - 3.6"

Interesting about Decembers in the late 1800's...there was definitely a cycle of early winters then. I'm not sure what was going on. Off the top of my head from my memory of old maps, Gulf lows were very common, along the lines of what we saw last year, but obviously theres a general big absence of them since the 70's. Here's some info from my notes I meant to put in the Winter outlook on some stats of snow around here:

The snowiest months at CLT are: Jan, Feb, but Dec and Mar are nearly tied.

The snowiest months at AVL:

Jan and Feb are fairly close, with a slight lead for Jan. Also, Mar and Dec are relatively close, with a nod to March.

GSP average snow last 11 years is 4.0" (30 yr avg is 6")

CLT average snow last 11 years is 4.9" (30 yr avg is 5")

Ashevilles 30 yr average is 13"

just glancing at the graph at GSP ( I know its not necessarily representative of the NC piedmont), this are of the piedmont is probably due a big season in the next few years...I notice a definite tapering off of the above average seasons here since the early 80's.

Hmmm for some reason can't attach anything.

[FoothillsNC]

the graph i couldn't attach last post.

[DaculaWeather]

It looks like just about as many good snows with Nina's as Nino's.

[GaWx]

We're overdue for a significant December snowstorm. December 1971 and December 1973 come to mind. Of course, the December 1971 snowstorm was proceeded by incredible warmth for the rest of that month.

Speaking of December snowstorms, I was looking at Charlotte's snowfall data for the last quarter of the nineteenth century and it's amazing how snowy the Decembers were back then. Below is a monthly breakdown of the total snowfall for the years 1878-1899.

November - 0.3"

December - 56.3"

January - 48.6"

February - 49.3"

March - 14.0"

April - 3.6"

Eric/Robert,

Atlanta had ~twice the longterm (1877-present) S/IP average of ~2"during the period 1877-1904 with a very impressive (for ATL) ~4"/year! In contrast, 1905-2010 has produced only ~1.5"/year. Of course, KATL's S/IP has really picked up since 3/2009 with two majors in less than a twelve month interval! Seeing a major in back to back winters was not at all uncommon in the late 1800's. For example, 1/1884 and 2/1885, 1/1893 and 2/1894, 2/1894 and 2/1895 (actually TWO in 2/1895). We started having this kind of thing again during the 1980's-early 1990's (1982 and 3, 1987 and 8, 1992 and 3). Who is to say that we didn't just enter a new snowy period in 2009? A big key imo is simply colder temperatures, which we had more regularly in the late 1800's. With the sun now quite possibly entering a Daltonlike min. (early 1800's) and with the oceans either starting (North Pacific) or about to start (North Atlantic) a cooling phase, it wouldn't surprise me if we are entering an overall colder period.

Since 1877, KATL has had only three major (3.5'+) S/IP in Dec. with two of the three having been during the late 1800's: 1886 and 1896 (both in EARLY Dec. and each a whopping ~7"). I bet that a good portion of Charlotte's late 1800's snow was from just these two incredible storms....maybe 20-25"+ of the 56.3"? KATL is sooo overdue a major S/IP in Dec. with the last one way back in 1917! KATL had 2.5" on 12/19/2000..so that was pretty close.

Regarding 1877-1904, Atlanta had the following breakdown of majors:

DEC: 2

JAN: 4

FEB: 7!!

MAR: 0

Note how Feb. was well ahead of the others. Then, from 1905-2009, ATL had only a measly three! Finally, we got one in 2/2010, the first since the great sleetstorm of 2/1979. If we do see an upswing during the next 20 or so years, I'd expect to see that 2/2010 will have turned out to be the start of a turnaround in Feb. S/IP.

[GaWx]

It looks like just about as many good snows with Nina's as Nino's.

Regarding the last 15 mod.+ La Nina's, the official Atlanta reporting station hasn't had a major S/IP (3.5"+)! This covers the La Nina's going back to 1909-10. (They came fairly close in 1964-5 with 2.4" at the airport on 1/16/1965 and quite possibly a good bit more in other parts of Atlanta.) However, what is weird is that they had a whopping THREE of them that were 6"+ during just the short period 1886-1894, which covered the prior five solid La Nina's! So, three of the five solid La Nina's of the 1880's-1890's actually had a 6"+ S/IP!

1)12/3-6/1886: moderate La Nina (7" of snow and sleet)

**2) 1/18-9/1893: strong La Nina (9.5" of mostly snow but with some sleet in between two snowy periods)

3) 2/24-5/1894: moderate La Nina (6" of snow)

**What is interesting/counterintuitive is that the 1/1893 S/IP is the heaviest single storm for Atlanta on record (although not the heaviest month and also ~10" did occur at the downtown station in a 1/1940 snowstorm but by then the airport had become offiical) and it was during a strong La Nina!! 1892-3 was the strongest La Nina (per both 3.4 and JMA SST's) for the period 1870-1 through 1916-7. So, although I'm certainly not expecting a big snow this winter here based on how the last 15 solid La Nina's have been and based on the general La Nina climo of not cold winters and no persistent moist subtropical jet, the prior three solid La Nina's remind me that it can still happen, especially if we can somehow get a cold winter.

[dsaur]

Regarding the last 15 mod.+ La Nina's, the official Atlanta reporting station hasn't had a major S/IP (3.5"+)! This covers the La Nina's going back to 1909-10. (They came fairly close in 1964-5 with 2.4" at the airport on 1/16/1965 and quite possibly a good bit more in other parts of Atlanta.) However, what is weird is that they had a whopping THREE of them that were 6"+ during just the short period 1886-1894, which covered the prior five solid La Nina's! So, three of the five solid La Nina's of the 1880's-1890's actually had a 6"+ S/IP!

1)12/3-6/1886: moderate La Nina (7" of snow and sleet)

**2) 1/18-9/1893: strong La Nina (9.5" of mostly snow but with some sleet in between two snowy periods)

3) 2/24-5/1894: moderate La Nina (6" of snow)

**What is interesting/counterintuitive is that the 1/1893 S/IP is the heaviest single storm for Atlanta on record (although not the heaviest month and also ~10" did occur at the downtown station in a 1/1940 snowstorm but by then the airport had become offiical) and it was during a strong La Nina!! 1892-3 was the strongest La Nina (per both 3.4 and JMA SST's) for the period 1870-1 through 1916-7. So, although I'm certainly not expecting a big snow this winter here based on how the last 15 solid La Nina's have been and based on the general La Nina climo of not cold winters and no persistent moist subtropical jet, the prior three solid La Nina's remind me that it can still happen, especially if we can somehow get a cold winter.

I'm a believer. I've always felt the times we get to attempt to squeeze crashing temps, arriving moisture, and blocks, in between the periods of upper seventies/low 80's are some of the best shots at winter goodness....at least down here. So many times a 4 inch sleet melts eventually into an 80 degree day, then next week it might be freezing rain I don't mind a roller coaster winter. It is the persistantly mild ones that drive me crazy.... with the cursed zonal flow. I'm way over due for my major sleet storm. T

[NEGa]

I'm a believer. I've always felt the times we get to attempt to squeeze crashing temps, arriving moisture, and blocks, in between the periods of upper seventies/low 80's are some of the best shots at winter goodness....at least down here. So many times a 4 inch sleet melts eventually into an 80 degree day, then next week it might be freezing rain I don't mind a roller coaster winter. It is the persistantly mild ones that drive me crazy.... with the cursed zonal flow. I'm way over due for my major sleet storm. T

i dont mind a roller coaster either, as long as we get some frozen precip! i do remember multiple occasions where it would be in the 60s or 70s and then within a day or two we had a winter storm

[Psalm 148:8]

i dont mind a roller coaster either, as long as we get some frozen precip! i do remember multiple occasions where it would be in the 60s or 70s and then within a day or two we had a winter storm

Very true! I can definitely attest to that....usually in March/April though....

[jrips27]

Thanks for the great info GaWx! I feel like we haven't had a good 1"+ snow in December in a while. When was the last time we had one in ATL. It might be that I just can't remember one in my short lifetime (Only 13 years lol)

[GaWx]

Thanks for the great info GaWx! I feel like we haven't had a good 1"+ snow in December in a while. When was the last time we had one in ATL. It might be that I just can't remember one in my short lifetime (Only 13 years lol)

You're very welcome, Kid. I think that the last one was when you were ~3 in Dec. 2000, when a very nice 2.5" snow fell on 12/19. So, we are sort of due for a 1"+ Dec. S/IP.

[POWERSTROKE]

sounds like I need to check out plows to make sure up and ready for December

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

sounds like I need to check out plows to make sure up and ready for December

You did make it over...... I was asking about you yesterday. Glad to see you man.

[EmersonGA]

You're very welcome, Kid. I think that the last one was when you were ~3 in Dec. 2000, when a very nice 2.5" snow fell on 12/19. So, we are sort of due for a 1"+ Dec. S/IP.

That was a great December. We had snow fall 4 or 5 times and some sleet. At one point we had snow on the ground for around 10 days or so. I almost got tired of sledding.

[HKY_WX]

Euro show's the block pretty well days 7-10 with the cold air starting to swing eastward as a response. Going to be a huge battle this winter b/n the PDO and NAO. Should make for some really great frontal systems and wild weather swings.

[NEGa]

Euro show's the block pretty well days 7-10 with the cold air starting to swing eastward as a response. Going to be a huge battle this winter b/n the PDO and NAO. Should make for some really great frontal systems and wild weather swings.

it would be nice for the atlantic side to prevail this year for a change lol - we should at least have an idea by the end of month in whether or not the cold actually arrives in the east.

[EmersonGA]

Euro show's the block pretty well days 7-10 with the cold air starting to swing eastward as a response. Going to be a huge battle this winter b/n the PDO and NAO. Should make for some really great frontal systems and wild weather swings.

Sounds fun. I'd like a December 2000 repeat with a tornado watch followed by snow.

[DixieBlizzard]

Good info guys!!

[WeatherNC]

WOW!!! 1055mb

That would likely lock the PV into Canada for awhile...

[dsaur]

I like the looks of that! Tony

[jburns]

Someone should take each 10th day of a model as gospel for the whole winter and estimate temps and precip for the area based on what it shows. We would probalby have an epic SE phantom winter.

[WeatherNC]

Someone should take each 10th day of a model as gospel for the whole winter and estimate temps and precip for the area based on what it shows. We would probalby have an epic SE phantom winter.

r u volunteering?

[jburns]

r u volunteering?

I would if I thought I was qualified to interput the models. I think it would be interesting though.

[iceman]

Bring it on!

[earlwx]

Quick question, I remember in years past there being talk of Novemember being a good analog for the rest of the winter. If that's the case, wouldn't the winter or at least the early part be rather mild which is more typical of la nina years?

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

Quick question, I remember in years past there being talk of Novemember being a good analog for the rest of the winter. If that's the case, wouldn't the winter or at least the early part be rather mild which is more typical of la nina years?

Actually, for our area October has more of a correlation to the up-coming winter than November and it's usually a reverse correlation. However, you can look for pattern signs in November as to how the winter pattern will set up. Of course this is not always the case, but it's a general rule of thumb that some forecasters look at.

[earlwx]

Actually, for our area October has more of a correlation to the up-coming winter than November and it's usually a reverse correlation. However, you can look for pattern signs in November as to how the winter pattern will set up. Of course this is not always the case, but it's a general rule of thumb that some forecasters look at.

Preciate it man, hopefully we will get a few good storms.

[HKY_WX]

Checkout how warm the waters over south greenland are now. They will get even warmer this week, with the nice cold pool below them off of Newfoundland. I think the ocean/atmosphere connection being established this early willmean a very -NAO for at least December and possibly the entire winter. That means we will just need some spurts of a +PNA to get a storm IMO. Only prob is the pacific is just so bad.