OSUmetstud Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Only H? Better yet It has dews near 50 in northern Ohio and in DC/BWI with temps in the low 100s. I'm not sure that seems right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 It has dews near 50 in northern Ohio and in DC/BWI with temps in the low 100s. I'm not sure that seems right. Why not? NW flow all levels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Why not? NW flow all levels idk...i would think there would be some gulf tap into that ridge. It looks like the east in enveloped in some kind of dryline lol. The GFS BUF sounding for period looks pretty dry too...steep low and mid-level lapse rates but a very dry BL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 also ginxy, it has similar conditions further west across the midwest, too. They have SW flow ahead of the cold front but they are still bone dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 idk...i would think there would be some gulf tap into that ridge. It looks like the east in enveloped in some kind of dryline lol. The GFS BUF sounding for period looks pretty dry too...steep low and mid-level lapse rates but a very dry BL. also ginxy, it has similar conditions further west across the midwest, too. They have SW flow ahead of the cold front but they are still bone dry. Thanks, enjoy Myrtle Beach! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Scooter - it occurred to me when I saw the title of this thread a moment ago ... were you and I speculating no heat between the 20th and 25th like 4 days ago? I could have swore we had that conversation. From my perspective, back then it had to do with timing the GFS ensemble cluster - which is interesting as much of this predicated now on the assumption the 00z Euro is right, and the 12z is merely exercising its carving bias. 18z GFS has 12 hour interval where it tries to close off a 594dm ridge node near WV for the period is question! It appears after whatever heat verifies we end up in an oscillatory pattern between average that cycles through above. New positive AAM mode emerging out of the subtropics in the N Hemisphere right about as the MJO completes its push through Phase 1 would tend to flag a bigger/better subtropical ridge expression than we've seen thus far as we head toward the 4th. Stay tuned! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 It has dews near 50 in northern Ohio and in DC/BWI with temps in the low 100s. I'm not sure that seems right. If it's dry heat bring it on...I really have no problem with 90/50 as that'll cool quickly in the evening in the mountain valleys and outlying areas around the cities. Dry heat means better sleeping weather. If that's true we'd probably see some 40F diurnal ranges here in the elevated mountain valleys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 15, 2012 Author Share Posted June 15, 2012 Scooter - it occurred to me when I saw the title of this thread a moment ago ... were you and I speculating no heat between the 20th and 25th like 4 days ago? I could have swore we had that conversation. From my perspective, back then it had to do with timing the GFS ensemble cluster - which is interesting as much of this predicated now on the assumption the 00z Euro is right, and the 12z is merely exercising its carving bias. 18z GFS has 12 hour interval where it tries to close off a 594dm ridge node near WV for the period is question! It appears after whatever heat verifies we end up in an oscillatory pattern between average that cycles through above. New positive AAM mode emerging out of the subtropics in the N Hemisphere right about as the MJO completes its push through Phase 1 would tend to flag a bigger/better subtropical ridge expression than we've seen thus far as we head toward the 4th. Stay tuned! I think we were speculating if the heat as modeled would happen, given the tendencies for it to be muted as of late. I don't think we ruled it out or anything, as the teleconnections were in better support. Still though, the 12z euro guidance did have some caution flags..lol. Sometimes the euro does this and loses it..only to go back at it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Scooter - it occurred to me when I saw the title of this thread a moment ago ... were you and I speculating no heat between the 20th and 25th like 4 days ago? I could have swore we had that conversation. From my perspective, back then it had to do with timing the GFS ensemble cluster - which is interesting as much of this predicated now on the assumption the 00z Euro is right, and the 12z is merely exercising its carving bias. 18z GFS has 12 hour interval where it tries to close off a 594dm ridge node near WV for the period is question! It appears after whatever heat verifies we end up in an oscillatory pattern between average that cycles through above. New positive AAM mode emerging out of the subtropics in the N Hemisphere right about as the MJO completes its push through Phase 1 would tend to flag a bigger/better subtropical ridge expression than we've seen thus far as we head toward the 4th. Stay tuned! I think a very warm July is on the way Tippy, +2- +4 type of stuff which is impressive during the warmest temps of the year climo speaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 15, 2012 Author Share Posted June 15, 2012 I think a very warm July is on the way Tippy, +2- +4 type of stuff which is impressive during the warmest temps of the year climo speaking. I'd lean warm July as well...just not sold on torch quite yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 15, 2012 Author Share Posted June 15, 2012 I think a very warm July is on the way Tippy, +2- +4 type of stuff which is impressive during the warmest temps of the year climo speaking. I'd lean warm July as well...just not sold on torch quite yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 I'd lean warm July as well...just not sold on torch quite yet. What's warm and what's torch? But persistence forecasting would lean warm too. I think in today's climate age, you gotta be really seeing some strong signs in order to forecast a colder than normal month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Driest shortest heat wave ever? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 hmm...looking at the gfs...the gulf is pretty closed off. Easterly winds over the GOM in the few days preceding the heat. I doubt we'd have the mega-evapotransporation that occurred in july, 1995, either. http://droughtmonito.../DM_midwest.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 well it's a bit different when life is no longer all about jumping in a pond or a pool whenever you want. Jump in the pool anyway... who says u cant? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Is that at the Tarmac of the hottest location in SNE or your backyard? You think your backyard verifies heat wave? Its going to be hard to verify a heat wave for his BY...ORH has verified a heat wave (3 consecutive days over 90F) just twice since 1991. Its probably even harder for Tolland where his thermometer is in all that foliage...esp since his thermo runs a tad cold anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Very nice CME from Sunspot 1504, as it looks like a reproduction of the Labor Day 1998 derecho in space about to hit the atmosphere in a few hours. No marine influence to weaken the CME at least Maybe the active sun will bring the heat to fruition later next week and early July 2012, with less blocking and neg NAO dominated pattern with uptick in solar activity. Would be a moderate risk SVR day if the CME could have been a thunderstorm radar signature instead. Amazing how nature replicates two seperate events and can appear similar to each other. http://www.spaceweat...sjl6vqo7k1nme35 The CME signature http://www.google.com/imgres?q=labor+day+1998+derecho+radar+nyc&um=1&hl=en&rls=com.microsoft:en-us:IE-Address&rlz=1I7ACAW_enUS405US405&biw=1821&bih=755&tbm=isch&tbnid=yuzKDqAlioQrQM:&imgrefurl=http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/20829-rank-top-5-severe-weather-outbreak/&docid=GUehXFu-f62dCM&imgurl=http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/riggi/980907.gif&w=772&h=501&ei=etPaT-T4FMag6QHb-fGjCw&zoom=1 The Derecho signature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 15, 2012 Author Share Posted June 15, 2012 I think we were speculating if the heat as modeled would happen, given the tendencies for it to be muted as of late. I don't think we ruled it out or anything, as the teleconnections were in better support. Still though, the 12z euro guidance did have some caution flags..lol. Sometimes the euro does this and loses it..only to go back at it again. Like what it did last night. Lost the BD for now, but it lurks north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Like what it did last night. Lost the BD for now, but it lurks north. Man is Thu hot on the op. >20C 850s for everyone, west flow, and 2m temps of 95+ in the Merrimack Vally and BTV. ASH would probably flirt with the century mark verbatim. Ens are hot, but nothing that extreme yet. MEX guidance is already puking out a 94F for CON next Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 i've never had that problem Strongly agree. Hotter is better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 15, 2012 Author Share Posted June 15, 2012 Strongly agree. Hotter is better. Really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 15, 2012 Author Share Posted June 15, 2012 If that delivery verifies, it would probably be 95-100 for the typical torch spots. However, dews appear to be low. I still think we need to make sure nothing from the north sneaks down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Holy hell..what a hot Euro run last night. Will GC break 95? Certainly possible..4 days of 90+ and then a slight cooldown next Sunday and the heat looks poised to make a nother run at us. An epic period is enroute. What we've all been waiting for. Summer is meant to be hot..and it shall be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 So one real hot day bookended by warm... I can deal with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 15, 2012 Author Share Posted June 15, 2012 Holy hell..what a hot Euro run last night. Will GC break 95? Certainly possible..4 days of 90+ and then a slight cooldown next Sunday and the heat looks poised to make a nother run at us. An epic period is enroute. What we've all been waiting for. Summer is meant to be hot..and it shall be statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Really? I'm like Kevin. Torch summers and snowy cold winters. This is why I don't like spring and fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 I'm like Kevin. Torch summers and snowy cold winters. This is why I don't like spring and fall. Exactly..Seasons should perform as seasons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Driest shortest heat wave ever? The heat is going to wash over you faster than you can say szygy next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 15, 2012 Author Share Posted June 15, 2012 I'm like Kevin. Torch summers and snowy cold winters. This is why I don't like spring and fall. It's fine for a pool or beach, but otherwise...sweat dripping down cracks is not fun. Days like yesterday and mornings like today are epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Holy hell..what a hot Euro run last night. Will GC break 95? Certainly possible..4 days of 90+ and then a slight cooldown next Sunday and the heat looks poised to make a nother run at us. An epic period is enroute. What we've all been waiting for. Summer is meant to be hot..and it shall be No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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