CT Rain Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Updated forecast for BDL/HVN. Tuesday: 81/76 Wednesday: 97/94 Thursday: 98/93 Friday: 90/89 Scorcher even to the shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 18z NAM not backing off... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 I don't think there's any NWS product more boring than heat advisory/heat warnings. Total yawn--drink a friggin' glass of water. Turned into a beautiful afternoon--sun came out around 2:00p.m. temp stayed in the 60's FTW. BOX now going lower 90's for both Wed-Thursday, but overnights in the mid-60's. I'm sure I'll be fine on the deck in the shade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Updated forecast for BDL/HVN. Tuesday: 81/76 Wednesday: 97/94 Thursday: 98/93 Friday: 90/89 Scorcher even to the shore. Better, but not hot enough Wed/thurs..I suspect by tomorrow you'll be in bed with the KFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 18z NAM not backing off... Danger ahead. Call BOX with your spotter id and issue alerts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Danger ahead. Call BOX with your spotter id and issue alerts Dude, you just got so roasted you're better off not posting and just reading and learning for awhile - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Dude, you just got so roasted you're better off not posting and just reading and learning for awhile - I did? By whom, and for what? please cite specific examples Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 18, 2012 Author Share Posted June 18, 2012 Dude, you just got so roasted you're better off not posting and just reading and learning for awhile - Fertilizers FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 what are bdl's records for wed/thurs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 444 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MARITIMES WILL PROVIDE ONE MORE COOL NIGHT AND MILD DAY TOMORROW BEFORE DRIFTING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND MID WEEK...RESULTING IN NEAR RECORD HEAT WED AND THU ALONG WITH HUMID CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BREAK THE HEAT LATE FRI OR SAT AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 4 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... STRATO-CU CONTINUES TO SLOWLY THIN/ERODE AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH SUNSET. EVEN THE CAPE AND ISLANDS BEGINNING TO GET INTO SOME SUNSHINE AT 330 PM. HOWEVER ONCE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS LATER TONIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REDEVELOP BENEATH SUBSIDENCE VERSION COURTESY OF MARITIME HIGH PRES REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT AHEAD WITH MARITIME AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE. CLOUDS OVER NY STATE AND PA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. NOT EXPECTING THESE CLOUDS TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS TROUGH WASHES OUT. && .SHORT TERM /4 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... TUE... THIS WILL BE OUR TRANSITION DAY AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE MID ATLC AND OH VLY. THIS WILL BEGIN TO CIRCULATE A PIECE OF THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY FROM THE ROCKIES/PLAINS AND THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS WARMER AIR MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CLOUDINESS TOMORROW ESP ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGHS TUE WILL WARM INTO THE U70S AND L80S...WHICH IS SEASONABLY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING SSW MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ERODE QUICKER THAN PREVIOUS MORNINGS. REGARDING PRECIP...COULD BE SOME CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH MLVL WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM NY STATE. BUT APPEARS MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL PEEL OFF INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND OR DRY UP COMPLETELY AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE INTO NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. TUE NIGHT... MLVL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND SO DRY WEATHER CONTINUES. MILD NIGHT WITH WARM AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. DEW PTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WELL. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... BIG PICTURE...SUMMER HEAT BUILDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLIGHTLY SOUTH THURSDAY...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH LATE THIS WEEK. DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. DETAILS... WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WITH SUBSIDENT AIRMASS AND DOWNSLOPING WEST WINDS. OVERALL A PAIR OF FAIR DAYS. MIXING DEPTHS ARE FORECAST AROUND 5400 FEET IN THE INTERIOR AND SLIGHTLY LESS TOWARD THE COAST. THIS SUGGESTS THAT 850 MB WILL BE NEAR THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST AROUND 19C ON THE GFS AND 20-21C ON THE ECMWF. THIS SUPPORTS TEMPERATURES CENTERED IN THE MID 90S...ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST MAY BE IN THE 80S AND THE ISLANDS IN THE 70S. THE WEST WIND SHOULD KEEP A LAND WIND IN PLACE AT BOSTON AND PROVIDENCE...SO LOW TO MID 90S ARE GOOD IN THOSE AREAS. THURSDAY IS EVEN WARMER DUE TO THE WARMER START. COULD SEE MORE THAN A FEW PLACES APPROACH 100 DEGREES THURSDAY ACROSS THE CT AND MERRIMACK RIVER VALLEYS. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO TO NEAR 70 DEGREES...SO IT WILL FEEL HUMID. THE MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AREAS OF FOG EACH NIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. AS THE FOG DISSIPATES EACH DAY...THE LINGERING MOISTURE SHOULD SET UP SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS. ONE WOULD NORMALLY EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THIS HEAT AND HUMIDITY. AT THIS POINT WE ARE THINKING THAT WILL NOT HAPPEN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DUE TO A STRONG LOW-LEVEL CAP. THERE IS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY MUCH HIGHER UP...WITH A BASE BETWEEN 7-10 KFT. WHAT WE DO NOT HAVE IN PLACE IS ANYTHING TO REALLY FOCUS THIS ENERGY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT WILL BE CRUCIAL. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DRIVES A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHEAST USA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. BUT THE DIGGING SHORTWAVE ALSO TURNS THE UPPER FLOW NORTHEAST SO THAT MOST OF THE UPPER PUSH WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT RATHER THAN ACROSS IT. ALSO...THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION REMAINS WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY. WE MAINTAINED CLOUDS AND CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL TO THE MID TEENS...THIS AND EXTRA CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S FRIDAY. SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SURFACE SATURDAY BRINGING FAIR WEATHER. AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS SUNDAY AND PUSHES A SHORTWAVE ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS COULD TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS SUNDAY...AND COOLING ALOFT MAY DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS TO ALLOW THUNDER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN FRIDAY. MONDAY...WATCHING THE PROGRESS OF A LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN USA LATE THIS WEEK. 18/12Z GFS IS QUICKER TO BRING THIS LOW PRESSURE OUR WAY THAN THE 18/12Z ECMWF. WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE...HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. THE TIMING WILL NEED TO ADJUSTED AS THIS WEEK PROGRESSES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLE. && .AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT OVERVIEW... PERSISTENCE APPEARS TO BE THE BEST FORECAST IN THIS WEATHER REGIME WITH MVFR/IFR AFTER 03Z-06Z THEN IMPROVING TO VFR AROUND MIDDAY...FIRST INLAND THEN ALONG THE COAST. DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL. AS WINDS BECOME SSW TUE NIGHT IFR IS NOT EXPECTED AS MOST TERMINALS SHOULD BE MVFR IN PATCHY FOG. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BUT LOWER ON EXACT TIMING/DETAILS. KBOS TAF...MODERATE/HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR AFT 06Z THEN IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BY MIDDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR DURING THE DAY AND THEN MVFR/IFR AFT 06Z IMPROVING BACK TO VFR BY MIDDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND DRY RUNWAYS. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. TSTMS UNLIKELY...BUT POTENTIAL INCREASES JUST WEST OF MASSACHUSETTS LATE THURSDAY. FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DURING THE DAY. SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. && .MARINE... TONIGHT... HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN ANCHORED FROM THE MARITIMES TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL YIELD LIGHT WINDS BUT MODEST EASTERLY SWELL OF 2-5 FT WILL CONTINUE AS OCEAN STORM LINGERS OVER EASTERN GEORGES BANK. ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED. FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. TUE... HIGH BEGINS TO SLIDE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS INTO THE SSW EXCEPT OVER EASTERN MA WATERS WHERE SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL. EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ERODE FAIRLY QUICKLY. LEFTOVER EAST SWELL OF 2-4 FT SHOULD PERSIST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE MODERATE TO HIGH. TUE NIGHT... LESS FOG AS WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SW. EAST SWELLS SHOULD SUBSIDE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE MODERATE TO HIGH. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF THE WATERS WILL BRING A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS AND BRING HIGHER HUMIDITY AIR. THIS WILL SUPPORT FOG FORMATION AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING WITH POOR VISIBILITY. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS AND 5 FEET...ALTHOUGH SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS MAY APPROACH 5 FEET AT TIMES SOUTH AND EAST OF NANTUCKET. && .CLIMATE... RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: BOSTON - 20TH - 98 SET IN 1953 21ST - 95 SET IN 1949 AND PREVIOUS YEARS PROVIDENCE - 20TH - 95 SET IN 1941 21ST - 96 SET IN 1941 HARTFORD - 20TH - 96 SET IN 1995 AND PREVIOUS YEARS 21ST - 96 SET IN 1953 WORCESTER - 20TH - 93 SET IN 1953 21ST - 91 SET IN 1953 && .EQUIPMENT... WE ARE EXPERIENCING SOME TECHNICAL DIFFICULTIES WITH OUR WEB PAGE PRODUCTS. WE ARE TROUBLESHOOTING THE PROBLEM AT THE MOMENT AND APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BELK/NOCERA NEAR TERM...NOCERA SHORT TERM...NOCERA LONG TERM...BELK NUMBNUT HEAT AWARENESS...KFS AVIATION...BELK/NOCERA MARINE...BELK/NOCERA CLIMATE...STAFF EQUIPMENT...STAFF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 18, 2012 Author Share Posted June 18, 2012 Why are they obsesses with merrimack valley on Thursday? That's right to Bob's fanny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 what are bdl's records for wed/thurs? 96 both days..Smashed like MRG's hair when it gets tangled getting off the ski lift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Torch then mild down to slightly above Tuesday: Morning low clouds and fog then partly sunny, warmer, and more humid. High: 85 inland, 80 shore. Wednesday: Mostly sunny with record heat possible! Low: 67. High: 97 inland, 90 shore. Thursday: Mostly sunny with record heat possible, a slight chance for a late afternoon or evening thunderstorm. Low: 72. High: 97 inland, 89 shore. Friday: A mix of clouds and sunshine, a chance for showers, not quite as hot or as humid. Low: 70. High: 90 inland, 87 shore. Saturday: Mostly sunny and seasonably warm, fairly low humidity. Low: 62. High: 84 inland, 82 shore. Sunday: Partly sunny and warm, a chance for a late afternoon or evening shower or thunderstorm. Low: 60. High: 87 inland, 82 shore. Monday: A chance for a shower or thunderstorm in the morning then partly sunny and breezy in the afternoon. Low: 64. High: 81 inland, 82 shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 I don't think there's any NWS product more boring than heat advisory/heat warnings. Total yawn--drink a friggin' glass of water. Turned into a beautiful afternoon--sun came out around 2:00p.m. temp stayed in the 60's FTW. BOX now going lower 90's for both Wed-Thursday, but overnights in the mid-60's. I'm sure I'll be fine on the deck in the shade. Man, I've never seen someone scoff of heat so much lol. Heat can be very dangerous. 96/62 is horrible for golf/working outside/running/moving. It's good for one thing...swimming and going in AC. I'm sure you and Pete will enjoy your cool 86 degrees with a breeze to make it manageable as you will both claim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Man, I've never seen someone scoff of heat so much lol. Heat can be very dangerous. 96/62 is horrible for golf/working outside/running/moving. It's good for one thing...swimming and going in AC. I'm sure you and Pete will enjoy your cool 86 degrees with a breeze to make it manageable as you will both claim. I'll be in the 90's per BOX on Wed/Thurs. Right now, I'm enjoying my coffee on the shade-covered deck. I'll probably be doing the same this time Wed and Thursday as well, though I probably won't have my shawl on like I do now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Tips post from the Box discussion seems to indicate NW stays in the clouds and fog enough to take the edge of any real heat tomorrow but definitely looks like the sauna will be slowly building. Stay away from the big urban sinks come wed - fri if you can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Tips post from the Box discussion seems to indicate NW stays in the clouds and fog enough to take the edge of any real heat tomorrow but definitely looks like the sauna will be slowly building. Stay away from the big urban sinks come wed - fri if you can. I'm bringing my daughters to BDL Wed afternoon. Perhaps I should take the truck and watch the thermometer rise. Meanwhile, heading to Boston tomorrow, making a visit to BC. Tuitions, FTPL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 FTW DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO NEAR 70 DEGREES...SO IT WILL FEEL HUMID. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Man, I've never seen someone scoff of heat so much lol. Heat can be very dangerous. 96/62 is horrible for golf/working outside/running/moving. It's good for one thing...swimming and going in AC. I'm sure you and Pete will enjoy your cool 86 degrees with a breeze to make it manageable as you will both claim. Not really a big deal if you prepare for it. Even if you are working outdoors, be prepared with shade, plenty of water, and frequent breaks. If possible. I do have to work Weds, but I might end up being in some AC for part of the day... 96/62 is not too bad. 96/75 like Orlando last summer was bearable somehow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 FTW DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO NEAR 70 DEGREES...SO IT WILL FEEL HUMID. Taste it (although "near" 70 is not 70...FTL) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 96 both days..Smashed like MRG's hair when it gets tangled getting off the ski lift Maybe it inches above that 1 of the days...I still think not, but whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Taste it (although "near" 70 is not 70...FTL) Why is he obsessed with having dew points over 70 degrees? If he wants stuff like that so bad, then move to Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 18, 2012 Author Share Posted June 18, 2012 Taste it (although "near" 70 is not 70...FTL) Maybe Wednesday may be a day of higher dews, but I have trouble buying 70 except for south coast. Perhaps Friday if winds are more sw and front is slow Enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Why is he obsessed with having dew points over 70 degrees? If he wants stuff like that so bad, then move to Florida. He just likes extremes... It is all good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 He just likes extremes... It is all good I like him in the winter better, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 What are the MCC numbers looking like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BELK/NOCERA NEAR TERM...NOCERA SHORT TERM...NOCERA LONG TERM...BELK NUMBNUT HEAT AWARENESS...KFS AVIATION...BELK/NOCERA MARINE...BELK/NOCERA CLIMATE...STAFF EQUIPMENT...STAFF Sneaky Tip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 FWIW the MET numbers are outperforming the MAV out in the western OH Valley today through IL/IN/KY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 FWIW the MET numbers are outperforming the MAV out in the western OH Valley today through IL/IN/KY. excuse my ignorance ....which has high bias and/or which was higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 96 both days..Smashed like MRG's hair when it gets tangled getting off the ski lift Dude, lame, very lame. Almost as bad as your taste in sneakers. God, those are some awful looking shoes. Discount bin? Not really a big deal if you prepare for it. Even if you are working outdoors, be prepared with shade, plenty of water, and frequent breaks. If possible. I do have to work Weds, but I might end up being in some AC for part of the day... 96/62 is not too bad. 96/75 like Orlando last summer was bearable somehow Tough to get shade when you're framing a house, frequent breaks aren't productive. When productivity decreases so do profits. All this yammering on and on about a warm day or two. Pffft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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