CoastalWx Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 Torch is on it appears late next week. Mid to upper 90s would be realized IF models are correct. Much cooler afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 Last night's euro pushes 100F in the SNE warm spots next Thu-Fri and Wed is hot too. EC ens are warmest Wed-Thu. Then we cool it down after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 14, 2012 Author Share Posted June 14, 2012 Last night's euro pushes 100F in the SNE warm spots next Thu-Fri and Wed is hot too. EC ens are warmest Wed-Thu. Then we cool it down after that. Yeah I mean there is always the chance something goes wrong, but looks like it happens for at least 2 days anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 14, 2012 Author Share Posted June 14, 2012 I'm pretty much on board for the torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 4 days of 95-100 on the Euro last night. We've now added Saturday. A brutal 4 day heatwave that would make anyone proud. Oh this is going to be fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 This will also lock in another above normal month. But it's a pattern change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 14, 2012 Author Share Posted June 14, 2012 This will also lock in another above normal month. But it's a pattern change It will be close for BOS, but I think they eek out just on the + side. Gonna be close with 2-3 hot days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 It will be close for BOS, but I think they eek out just on the + side. Gonna be close with 2-3 hot days. Sat is hot too. One of those days where dews lower from the mid 70's of the previous 3 days down to near 60,, but airmass is still 90+ as cooler air lags Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 14, 2012 Author Share Posted June 14, 2012 Sat is hot too. One of those days where dews lower from the mid 70's of the previous 3 days down to near 60,, but airmass is still 90+ as cooler air lags Euro ensembles are much cooler Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 euro is blazing next week. probably legit given ec ens came in quite a bit warmer than previous run(s). that would actually be worthy of "torch" and temp talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 I remember the big torch of last July I think some places might have pushed triple digits. Got hot at the Pit, too. I hit 91.1 on July 21 and 91.0 on the 22nd. Not sure how this heat will compare to last year's one push, but it does take a bit to hit 90 out this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 14, 2012 Author Share Posted June 14, 2012 euro is blazing next week. probably legit given ec ens came in quite a bit warmer than previous run(s). that would actually be worthy of "torch" and temp talk. Yeah it looks real. Maybe warmest temps of summer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 Not only that, I have no idea where July is looking like a torch that they claim. 0Z Euro once again, see ya at 12z as the heat is muted to 2 days. Love the weather coming up, violently happy. Heavy heavy talented beach goers incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 during the last two weeks, ~t-6-7 days was when the models lost warmth to the -nao... this time, the models have gotten warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 We are talking about a heat wave that is a week away again? Where have I heard this before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 14, 2012 Author Share Posted June 14, 2012 We are talking about a heat wave that is a week away again? Where have I heard this before? I don't know if all of SNE qualifies as a heatwave, but I think a couple of very warm to hot days are in the cards at least. The same trough that helps rip a piece of the heat into SNE, will also cool it down during the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 I don't know if all of SNE qualifies as a heatwave, but I think a couple of very warm to hot days are in the cards at least. The same trough that helps rip a piece of the heat into SNE, will also cool it down during the weekend. transient warmth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 14, 2012 Author Share Posted June 14, 2012 Oh oh...Bob started the heatwave thread in my name. Hope it doesn't bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 Oh oh...Bob started the heatwave thread in my name. Hope it doesn't bust. Nah it seems a lock we get at least two days of 90s but a three day heat wave might be tough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 Wouldn't mind some interludes of convection at some point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 Wonderful. Sweat dripping off my dome. Pete wringing out his hair. Horrible, horrible news except for the beach lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 Wouldn't mind some interludes of convection at some point! would think with the rapid height falls the heat ends with a bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 Torch is on it appears late next week. Mid to upper 90s would be realized IF models are correct. Much cooler afterwards. Didn't expect this, this morning... this whack in the face BD. The NAM grids had some feeble onshore components, but not 30kt gusts whipping tree limbs around and extending flags. Looking around at area obs, and satellite, it's pretty clear that a 2ndary push of northeasterly winds puffed into the coastal plain around 12z and continues to press SW across the area. They sky is gray and billowed; then I took a quick glance at visible imagery and it very very local to eastern Massachusetts, and appears to be rolling SW toward RI/CT. I tell you, there is some kind of odd "micro-teleconnector" that connects the NAO domain to specifically the 10,000 sq mile region of SNE. There are certain NAO scenarios that bend this specific area over the proverbial weather barrel. It seems to be -NAOs that are in fading regions of the curve. I think what it really boils down to is lag correlations. The NAO does not immediately get us chilled when it starts falling; likewise, when it is rising from a strong nadir, the cool conveyor seems to persist seemingly after it should. Interesting. Eh, at least it will clear from the NE shortly. Re, next week - yeah, I see that... I actually have less problem with that, because the last 3 weeks have demonstrated that for whatever reason, the NAO is the current primary effective influence on modulating our weather - it may simply be a matter of the PNA seasonally gone to bed... but anyway. Seeing as that is the case, the index is fairly well clustered around a continued recovery out of nadir toward some as yet unknown local maximum. The idea of at last lifting heights and ridding the 65W/40N of that -NAO attribute REX block has even more merit this morning, as the new values now are actually positive, not just neutral. It could get really hot if the GLAAM would rise positive, because the main mass of the AO domain vortex has shifted to far side of the arctic ocean, such that a uber deep subtropical ridge event on this side of the hemisphere would result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 Wonderful. Sweat dripping off my dome. Pete wringing out his hair. Horrible, horrible news except for the beach lovers. Now that is a nice AZZ in your avatar. More please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 I'd extend the thread title to 21-24 as Euro keeps it hot Saturday and then a little relief thereafter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 14, 2012 Author Share Posted June 14, 2012 Didn't expect this, this morning... this whack in the face BD. The NAM grids had some feeble onshore components, but not 30kt gusts whipping tree limbs around and extending flags. Looking around at area obs, and satellite, it's pretty clear that a 2ndary push of northeasterly winds puffed into the coastal plain around 12z and continues to press SW across the area. They sky is gray and billowed; then I took a quick glance at visible imagery and it very very local to eastern Massachusetts, and appears to be rolling SW toward RI/CT. I tell you, there is some kind of odd "micro-teleconnector" that connects the NAO domain to specifically the 10,000 sq mile region of SNE. There are certain NAO scenarios that bend this specific area over the proverbial weather barrel. It seems to be -NAOs that are in fading regions of the curve. I think what it really boils down to is lag correlations. The NAO does not immediately get us chilled when it starts falling; likewise, when it is rising from a strong nadir, the cool conveyor seems to persist seemingly after it should. Interesting. Eh, at least it will clear from the NE shortly. Re, next week - yeah, I see that... I actually have less problem with that, because the last 3 weeks have demonstrated that for whatever reason, the NAO is the current primary effective influence on modulating our weather - it may simply be a matter of the PNA seasonally gone to bed... but anyway. Seeing as that is the case, the index is fairly well clustered around a continued recovery out of nadir toward some as yet unknown local maximum. The idea of at last lifting heights and ridding the 65W/40N of that -NAO attribute REX block has even more merit this morning, as the new values now are actually positive, not just neutral. It could get really hot if the GLAAM would rise positive, because the main mass of the AO domain vortex has shifted to far side of the arctic ocean, such that a uber deep subtropical ridge event on this side of the hemisphere would result. Regarding today: I did notice the NAM has a surge of NE winds on the models yesterday...but dam BOS is gusting to 25kts. Didn't have winds like that in my TAF. However I think drier air works in and the CU goes poof later on. Dews will drop into the 40s overnight...probably one of those deals where the next few nights are in the low to mid 40s in places like OWD. As far as next week goes..I do have to watch to see if any fronts to the north try to cut this short. Seeing fronts in srn Canada this far out always seems to raise eyebrows. But for now, I think at least 2 days should be warm to hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 My interpretation of the 00z, D7 Euro, it suggests record heat is plausible for a lot of people. At least aloft. What does the raw output have for the 2-meter T? My guess is LESS than what this synopsis below supports - that would be typical; anytime you have a burgeoning ridge that exceeds 594dm, with +20 to +22C, 850mb air mass coming in on a westerly deep layer flow that is blowing out of said ridge node… yeah, you’re going to cook! Severely. It's possible the Euro is too extreme, duh ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 transient warmth i think this is the exact reason why this heat "wave" will make it into southern new england this time...It is actually being forced there with a progressive trough swinging southeast..the other events had ridge axis way far west, troughs further west sending the storm systems way far northwest into canada...opening doors for the weakness on the east coast with onshore winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 14, 2012 Author Share Posted June 14, 2012 i think this is the exact reason why this heat "wave" will make it into southern new england this time...It is actually being forced there with a progressive trough swinging southeast..the other events had ridge axis way far west, troughs further west sending the storm systems way far northwest into canada...opening doors for the weakness on the east coast with onshore winds Yeah it's a text book way of getting heat here, even if it doesn't last long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 i think this is the exact reason why this heat "wave" will make it into southern new england this time...It is actually being forced there with a progressive trough swinging southeast..the other events had ridge axis way far west, troughs further west sending the storm systems way far northwest into canada...opening doors for the weakness on the east coast with onshore winds 2 days, does not a heat wave require 3 90 plus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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