uncle W Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 some analogs like 1972 and 1979 are showing up on my radar...Those years had some cool temperatures the first week of July...july will start out warm but will the warmth last thru the first week?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 some analogs like 1972 and 1979 are showing up on my radar...Those years had some cool temperatures the first week of July...july will start out warm but will the warmth last thru the first week?... The Junes of those years ended far cooler than this year's. And 1972 was far wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 im liking 2011 as trends go now. As far as the 4th - 1 week a way and looking warm 85 - 90 range still my guess. Storms/rain chances will need to be honed in as we get closer. Nation-wide (most of it) warm up looks to continue thru the first week of july. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 im liking 2011 as trends go now. As far as the 4th - 1 week a way and looking warm 85 - 90 range still my guess. Storms/rain chances will need to be honed in as we get closer. Nation-wide (most of it) warm up looks to continue thru the first week of july. Agreed -- near normal -- mid/upper 80s would be my call right now. Throw in an isolated boomer or two just to cover the arse. Fine tune as we approach, NW flow aloft over the Northeast could yield an active 4th period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 It depends on the trough placement. If the GFS and it's ensembles are correct, the July 4th timeframe looks relatively cool. The Euro and its ensembles however, support above normal temps for the 4th of July week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 It depends on the trough placement. If the GFS and it's ensembles are correct, the July 4th timeframe looks relatively cool. The Euro and its ensembles however, support above normal temps for the 4th of July week. Even under the gfs transient troughing it looks at least normal 850 running 15c - 18c. Suspect any storms or cloudy days would produce cooler temps and thats maybe a day or two with the overall period at or above normal. That mega heat source will pulse in and maybe like last year encompasses the northeast mid- late July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Even under the gfs transient troughing it looks at least normal 850 running 15c - 18c. Suspect any storms or cloudy days would produce cooler temps and thats maybe a day or two with the overall period at or above normal. That mega heat source will pulse in and maybe like last year encompasses the northeast mid- late July. we have a huge heat source out west and when that happens we usually get our share of it...I hope our corner of the world gets in on some of the cooler air from Canada at times like we have seen so far...1968 comes to mind...1963 also... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 18z gfs showing a less warm pattern once past the 2nd. 12 ecm, ensembles and 12 gfs and ensembles all sustain an above normal pattern thru the 4th of July weekend. Still leaning 85 - 90 on the 4th with low chance of storms/rain. The heat source to our sw should continue to pulse over the region is spurts with an overall moderation to/above normal between the heat spikes. Days with storms/rain will obviously trend cooler but overall warm pattern has commenced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...THIS APPEARS TO BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WEST AND NW WIND FLOW ALOFT CONTS AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE MOVES EAST TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A SERIES OF MCS MOVING SE DOWN THE RIDGE. IN A MOIST MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS...HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE. BECAUSE OF HIGH FCST UNCERTAINTY...ONLY 20 PCT POPS ARE IN THE FCST FOR NOW. STAY TUNED. Looks like July 4th might be stormy...FML, every time i go to a concert at Jones Beach it rains, without fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 30, 2012 Author Share Posted June 30, 2012 Looks like July 4th might be stormy...FML, every time i go to a concert at Jones Beach it rains, without fail. We'll have to see how things evolve but tue/wed could feature storms at times. Maybe we'll get lucky and stay dry for the holiday. Overall normal or above the rest of the week with more heat by the 5th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 30, 2012 Author Share Posted June 30, 2012 Euro continues the risk of storms jul 4th evening. Looks warm during the day 85 - 90 if we;re not dealing with clouds/storms all day. Hopefully we can stay dry till over night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted June 30, 2012 Share Posted June 30, 2012 i will take storms 6-8pm so everything get wet before I do my fireworks show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 1, 2012 Author Share Posted July 1, 2012 4th looking hotter with dexcent chance of storms at some point in the day or night. Temps in the 90s if its not cloudy. Latesr gfs has tstorms in the morning and afternoon, ecm has nightime storms. Lets see how today's guidance trends with any storms and their timing for the area. Quite the summery and hot week shaping up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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