SACRUS Posted June 13, 2012 Share Posted June 13, 2012 Figured as we start getting into the longer range guidance it would be interesting to track how the 4th of July weather could turn out. Heres' a look back at the last several 4th of July's Year....11.....10...09...08....07...06...05...04...03.....02...01....00...99...98...97...96..95...94...93 EWR:...92...101...83...81....73...89...80...87...94...100...81...88...99...86...88...72...84...86...97 LGA:...88.....98...81...80....73...92...82...83...93.....98...81...84...95...86...87...73...84...83...92 TTN:...89.....99...81...80....74...89...84...89...92.....97...82...87...99...85...84...73...81...83...92 JFK:....86...101...83...82....72...86...78...79...92.....99...75...81...97...82...89...74...80...83...96 NYC:...86.....96...79...78....71...87...83...82...92.....96...79...84...96...84...85...71...84...86...95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 13, 2012 Share Posted June 13, 2012 Figured as we start getting into the longer range guidance it would be interesting to track how the 4th of July weather could turn out. Heres' a look back at the last several 4th of July's Year....11.....10...09...08....07...06...05...04...03.....02...01....00...99...98...97...96..95...94...93 EWR:...92...101...83...81....73...89...80...87...94...100...81...88...99...86...88...72...84...86...97 LGA:...88.....98...81...80....73...92...82...83...93.....98...81...84...95...86...87...73...84...83...92 TTN:...89.....99...81...80....74...89...84...89...92.....97...82...87...99...85...84...73...81...83...92 JFK:....86...101...83...82....72...86...78...79...92.....99...75...81...97...82...89...74...80...83...96 NYC:...86.....96...79...78....71...87...83...82...92.....96...79...84...96...84...85...71...84...86...95 July 4th's hottest temperatures and the next winters snowfall... 102 in 1949 13.8" .99. in 1919 47.6" .98. in 1966 51.5" .97. in 1911 29.5" .97. in 1955 33.5" .96. in 1999 16.3" .96. in 2002 49.3" .96. in 2010 61.9" .95. in 1993 53.4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 13, 2012 Share Posted June 13, 2012 July 4th's hottest temperatures and the next winters snowfall... 102 in 1949 13.8" .99. in 1919 47.6" .98. in 1966 51.5" .97. in 1911 29.5" .97. in 1955 33.5" .96. in 1999 16.3" .96. in 2002 49.3" .96. in 2010 61.9" .95. in 1993 53.4" 2 bad winters, both better than 2011-12. Looks like we should be rooting for a hot July 4th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 2 bad winters, both better than 2011-12. Looks like we should be rooting for a hot July 4th. If you look at SACRUS' list there are actually more good winters with run of the mill weather. So I'm rooting for a high in the low 80s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 If you look at SACRUS' list there are actually more good winters with run of the mill weather. So I'm rooting for a high in the low 80s lets hope it's not in the 70's...2007, 2001 and 1996 had highs in the 70's...I think we averaged under 10" for the three... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 2007 was a god awful 4th of July weekend....3 days of cloudy weather, no rain but no sun either...ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 2007 was a god awful 4th of July weekend....3 days of cloudy weather, no rain but no sun either...ugly one of the nicest 4th of July's in my lifetime was July 4th 1965...The day started out Sunny with a min of 65...The afternoon's high was an unexpected 90...It was a dry 90...the days before and after wern't so hot but you could not ask for a better 4th...July 4th 1981 was a nightmare with heavy rain during the evening fireworks... http://www.erh.noaa....4thofjulywx.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 14, 2012 Author Share Posted June 14, 2012 Guidance out to about the 29th/30th showing a trough over the northeast. GFS brings it in around next saturday (6/23). Perhaps it will be lifting out in time for early July.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 14, 2012 Author Share Posted June 14, 2012 GFS D10 (6z) GFS way out 384 (6/30) ECM D10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 14, 2012 Author Share Posted June 14, 2012 Most guidance today continues to show a trough digging in by 6/24. Loner range shows timing may be such that whatever trough moves through next weekend (6/24) may be lifting out in time for end of June early July. Does the Rockies/Plains ridge build east in time for Independence Day?? 18z GFS D10 D10 ECM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 and the NAO continues to mute the temperatures in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Guidance out to about the 29th/30th showing a trough over the northeast. GFS brings it in around next saturday (6/23). Perhaps it will be lifting out in time for early July.... When are these persistent summer troughs going to stop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 15, 2012 Author Share Posted June 15, 2012 When are these persistent summer troughs going to stop? Well, lets see how next weekend heat buster trough lowers temps and how long before riding builds east. Last nights 00z gfs and ecm show the trough moving out and heights and tems rebuilding by monday the 25th.. 00z GFS D10 ECm D10 vgvhgjghjg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 16, 2012 Author Share Posted June 16, 2012 Overnight guidance reversed stances. EZC now brings a deeper/cooler trough through next weekend into the end of June. The gfs (6z) lifts thr trough through and is bulding heights and temps by the end of June. We'll see where we go today. Ensembles want to keep it trough thru D10 into last few days of June. The timing for 4th of July is still very unclear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Overnight guidance reversed stances. EZC now brings a deeper/cooler trough through next weekend into the end of June. The gfs (6z) lifts thr trough through and is bulding heights and temps by the end of June. We'll see where we go today. Ensembles want to keep it trough thru D10 into last few days of June. The timing for 4th of July is still very unclear. where going to need three days with +10 departures to get back to average...If the through materialize's June could end up below average... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 ice ice baby for the 4th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 16, 2012 Author Share Posted June 16, 2012 ice ice baby for the 4th. 12z GFS more progressive with next weekend trough and builds heights by the 27/28th with much warmer flow for whatever thats worth. Lets see where the rest of the 12z guidance goes today. I dont see any indication of a much below normal regime once past next weekend/early week of the 25th which even then might be more closer to normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 12z GFS more progressive with next weekend trough and builds heights by the 27/28th with much warmer flow for whatever thats worth. Lets see where the rest of the 12z guidance goes today. I dont see any indication of a much below normal regime once past next weekend/early week of the 25th which even then might be more closer to normal. just teasing the warmanistas, too far out to know anything right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 16, 2012 Author Share Posted June 16, 2012 12z guidance continues with trough in the 6/24 - 6/30(ish) timeframe. Euro now stronger and longer with the trough and would imply at least several days below normal and increased precip chances. GFS more progressive and builds heights beyond D10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickD2011 Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 where going to need three days with +10 departures to get back to average...If the through materialize's June could end up below average... 3 days in the 90s this week will get us above average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 17, 2012 Author Share Posted June 17, 2012 0z operational gfs and ecm are both depicting less troughing next weekend after the friday cold front and would impy its at or even above normal 6/23 - 6/26 aside from any clouds/rain chances. GFS longer range digs the trough here between the 26th and 30th before it singanls heights rise by jul 1. GFS lala range has it failry warm by jul 2. Timing may be that the 24th - 30th features some level of troughing and temps near normal as a whole with week of Jul 1 normal or above with heights building in.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 3 days in the 90s this week will get us above average. Central Park is around -31 for the first 16days...-1.9 daily ave...Today and tomorrow might see the departure drop some more...It will be negative 35-40 before tue...I figure we might make up 30 or so on the plus side for the three day torch...That means the last week will start with a small negative around -5 or so...If the last week must be warm if the month ends up above normal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 18, 2012 Author Share Posted June 18, 2012 12z GFS continues with a warmer Sat/Sun (at or perhaps above normal) before it digs in the trough Tue - Fri (6/26 - 6/30). Suspect some below normal temps in the lastfew days of the month. GFS indicates heights rise and some of the heat southwest of the area will expand in 2 - 3 days spikes as we head to the fourth early indications are normal to above normal for the NJ/NYC area. Here's the 12z GFS depiction July 4th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 12z euro chilly after this torch. Downright cold for end of June at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 20, 2012 Author Share Posted June 20, 2012 Gudance has seemingly converged on a deep trough and ULL moving through the northeast next week with cooler than normal temps and increases chance for rain/storms Mon - Thu. This unsetteled weather should be followed by a weak trough over the northeast as we head out of June and start July. There are hints that heights will be rebounding and temps will be near normal as we move closer to the 4th. Torch-like heat extending from the core of the ridge in the rockies into the lower mid west may bubble into the northeast for short interludes on/around the 4th... As of now the 4th is looking potentially near normal but lingering troughiness may prove to increase storminess, the 4th and beyond could see a progression towards some heat. Here's how the 18z depicts the 4th of July 14 days from now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 21, 2012 Author Share Posted June 21, 2012 Not much to change tonight. While the GFS has reverted back to a deper trough and ULL in the 26 - 29 timeframe and the ECM was further north with ull. Both op and ensembles from both point to moderation by Jun 30th and continues near or above into the 4th. Lets have a look in the morning at the other overnight data. Still think July 4th is near normal 85 - 90 range, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 23, 2012 Author Share Posted June 23, 2012 ECM and GFS still indicating after the 6/26 - 6/28 cooldwon we moderate to and above normal by fri 6/29. ECM and gfs trending much warmer for next weekend with potential heat signal for sat/sun (6/30 - 7/1). Beyond there and into the first week of Jul and July 4th holiday weekend, temps look near or above normal. GFS have a general trough into the northeast but temps are near or above normal but with increased storm chances. Core of the ridge remains over the rockies. ECM and both ensembles are posied to continue with a warmer look once past d10 (Jul 2nd) on recent runs. As we get into closer range we can fine tune the forecast but as of now July 4th continues to look summery and near normal in the region. ECM D10 (7/2) 0z GFS ensembles for July 4th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 ECM and GFS still indicating after the 6/26 - 6/28 cooldwon we moderate to and above normal by fri 6/29. ECM and gfs trending much warmer for next weekend with potential heat signal for sat/sun (6/30 - 7/1). Beyond there and into the first week of Jul and July 4th holiday weekend, temps look near or above normal. GFS have a general trough into the northeast but temps are near or above normal but with increased storm chances. Core of the ridge remains over the rockies. ECM and both ensembles are posied to continue with a warmer look once past d10 (Jul 2nd) on recent runs. As we get into closer range we can fine tune the forecast but as of now July 4th continues to look summery and near normal in the region. ECM D10 (7/2) 0z GFS ensembles for July 4th the long range looks humid and generally above normal to me with sw surface flow and a bermuda high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 23, 2012 Author Share Posted June 23, 2012 the long range looks humid and generally above normal to me with sw surface flow and a bermuda high GFS continues a warm and humid pattern to open July. Looking at least normal to above. Perhaps increased storm chances but quite summery. SE ridge building... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 23, 2012 Author Share Posted June 23, 2012 12z Euro showing a very warm finish to June and July 4th week/weekend. Its implying the nation-wide warmth that bluewave mentioned earlier in the June discussion thread. Widespread 90 degree readings fri - sun then again around the 3rd 4th. Looking quite summery once past Wed/thu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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