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Doldrums continued.


CoastalWx

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That's awesome.

You thinking of running a half or full marathon?

I ran from here to my wife's parents house in town last evening , 6 miles across town in light rain, since I knew it would be raining heavier this AM. First time I've ever run in the evening. I was shocked when i saw my times. I ran the firstmile in 7:01, the 2nd in 7:05 the 3rd in 7:09 and then the last 2 were just under 8 . No idea how to explain that. i felt great. The only thing I can think is , is being up and around all day loosens you up more than rolling out of bed and running 15-20 minutes later.

Rain just ending here..still some drizzle 62.1/62

There are two races in mind. The first is the really sucky Kelly Road Race in New London. It's my hometown and my siblings all descend on it for this crappy, non-standard 11.6 miles race (it's free though). More importantly for me is the Bridge of Flowers 10K in Shelburne Falls www.bridgeofflowers10k.com. Great race, part of the New England Grand Prix 2 of the last 3 years.

My peak running days are 25 years behind me when I was actually pretty good. I remember finishing 112th in the New Haven 20K in some crazy time when I was 18 years old. No idea where I pulled that pace out of, and have never seen it since. lol

Back to weather, sun's now peaking through, let the grass start growing (until it drys out over the next several days, ftl.).

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I disagree. I think a pattern change means the pattern we were in is gone for good. If you want to call it a temporary change ok..but by no means is it a full change where we go from 12 months in a row of above normal to 12 months below..much less 1. I'll be shocked if June comes in below.

How can a pattern be gone for good? Patterns re-appear all the time, the atmosphere is fluid and repeats all the time, hence the term analog.

.

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I disagree. I think a pattern change means the pattern we were in is gone for good. If you want to call it a temporary change ok..but by no means is it a full change where we go from 12 months in a row of above normal to 12 months below..much less 1. I'll be shocked if June comes in below.

I've just accepted that months are going to come in above normal now, and you can't really judge a pattern change just on the numbers.

You could have 10 different patterns produce a month of +3F (was it warm daily highs, cold days but rainy mild nights, etc). I don't think just using monthly departures is the best way to tell if a pattern has changed...unless we are defining "weather pattern" as being strictly tied to monthly temperature departures.

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I've just accepted that months are going to come in above normal now, and you can't really judge a pattern change just on the numbers.

You could have 10 different patterns produce a month of +3F (was it warm daily highs, cold days but rainy mild nights, etc). I don't think just using monthly departures is the best way to tell if a pattern has changed...unless we are defining "weather pattern" as being strictly tied to monthly temperature departures.

A pattern change can only last 2-3 weeks. You don't get -12 departures and not have a pattern change..lol.

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I've just accepted that months are going to come in above normal now, and you can't really judge a pattern change just on the numbers.

You could have 10 different patterns produce a month of +3F (was it warm daily highs, cold days but rainy mild nights, etc). I don't think just using monthly departures is the best way to tell if a pattern has changed...unless we are defining "weather pattern" as being strictly tied to monthly temperature departures.

Yeah a pattern change means the pattern completely changes and does not go back to what it was. If folks want to deem this a temporary change ok..but this was/is by no means a pattern change where we go below normal or even normal. If it's still above normal in the end..nothing has changed..indices may shift around and fluctuate..but in the end.you are right back where you started

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Yeah a pattern change means the pattern completely changes and does not go back to what it was. If folks want to deem this a temporary change ok..but this was/is by no means a pattern change where we go below normal or even normal. If it's still above normal in the end..nothing has changed..indices may shift around and fluctuate..but in the end.you are right back where you started

:blink:

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I've just accepted that months are going to come in above normal now, and you can't really judge a pattern change just on the numbers.

You could have 10 different patterns produce a month of +3F (was it warm daily highs, cold days but rainy mild nights, etc). I don't think just using monthly departures is the best way to tell if a pattern has changed...unless we are defining "weather pattern" as being strictly tied to monthly temperature departures.

If not monthly departures, then what metric would you use? If departures were all solidly negative for months on end no one would complain about departures cheating or misleading.

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If not monthly departures, then what metric would you use? If departures were all solidly negative for months on end no one would complain about departures cheating or misleading.

Weather patterns involve more than just temps. Precip, storm frequency, wind speed and direction, cloudy versus Sunny days, lots of variables.

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If not monthly departures, then what metric would you use? If departures were all solidly negative for months on end no one would complain about departures cheating or misleading.

I'm not sure...I'm just thinking you could be getting weeks of sun and highs in the 80s and lows in the 50s leading to a +3 month....but then the next month is cloudy and wet with low diurnal ranges but humid showers cause a +3 from overnight mins.

Those are two different patterns leading to the same monthly departure. And the public will be able to tell the difference between a rainy humid month and a bright sunny mild month, even if both are above average.

It's also like in the winter when Will and Coastal talk about a pattern change but that it may not bring more snow if things break wrong. You can get a completely different pattern that still produces no snow but it doesn't mean it's the same as the prior pattern that produced no snow.

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I'm not sure...I'm just thinking you could be getting weeks of sun and highs in the 80s and lows in the 50s leading to a +3 month....but then the next month is cloudy and wet with low diurnal ranges but humid showers cause a +3 from overnight mins.

Those are two different patterns leading to the same monthly departure. And the public will be able to tell the difference between a rainy humid month and a bright sunny mild month, even if both are above average.

It's also like in the winter when Will and Coastal talk about a pattern change but that it may not bring more snow if things break wrong. You can get a completely different pattern that still produces no snow but it doesn't mean it's the same as the prior pattern that produced no snow.

That sort of happened in February and we still got screwed.

The pattern still had too much Pacific taint and just wasn't enough for us.

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