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June 13th - 22nd Severe Weather Chances


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Yes, the EML has played a significant role in many of the historic outbreaks east of the Mississippi.

Ain't it the truth. I wouldn't call it a prerequisite for significant tornado outbreaks in our area but a lot of the bigger outbreaks have had it.

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As is usual during cap busts, oh so close, yet so far. (You can see the inversions at 650 and 750 mb.)

And actually the EML isn't all that dry, surprising enough.

That MPX sounding is awesome!

Minnesota and South Dakota sure are effective at getting the high supercell composite values without having a TORNADO!

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Overall, I'm a bit confused to the overall difference between CINH and EML in the Plains. They both seem to serve the same purpose, and do the same things IMO... Although as previously posted there is a bit of a difference of EML in the SE and EML in the Plains...

EDIT: In other words EML and CINH both act as a cap in the Plains...

Well the difference being that you can have CIN without an EML, but the EML is probably the most common contributor to CIN in the Plains. Sort of like every square is a rectangle, but not every rectangle is a square.

It is important to note as well that while the EML sets the cap, it actually promotes convection once the cap is broken due to the steep lapse rates within the layer. Just taking CIN alone (without the background cause) does not tell you much about potential for convection once initiated.

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Ain't it the truth. I wouldn't call it a prerequisite for significant tornado outbreaks in our area but a lot of the bigger outbreaks have had it.

And even farther east, 6/1/11 and the Springfield, MA tornado featured a nice remnant EML advecting over the top of the ridge.

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Well the difference being that you can have CIN without an EML, but the EML is probably the most common contributor to CIN in the Plains. Sort of like every square is a rectangle, but not every rectangle is a square.

It is important to note as well that while the EML sets the cap, it actually promotes convection once the cap is broken due to the steep lapse rates within the layer. Just taking CIN alone (without the background cause) does not tell you much about potential for convection once initiated.

Oh... ok, thanks... It kind of makes more sense. But it's obviously a bit complicated...

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That's not a death ridge, the only thing that really looks like one is at around 84 hrs on the 12z GFS, and that doesn't last too long.

Yeah, 84hrs. Exactly what I was talking about. Whatever you want to call it, it isn't going to be helpful for any upcoming setups (if there even are any).

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Looks like death ridge setting up in the mid range for the GFS.

Bring it on. Chase season effectively ended 5/30 for those unable to get out to the Intermountain West or Canada. I'm long over it. Most interesting weather we can hope for at this point is widespread 100s. Flamesuit on...

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Bring it on. Chase season effectively ended 5/30 for those unable to get out to the Intermountain West or Canada. I'm long over it. Most interesting weather we can hope for at this point is widespread 100s. Flamesuit on...

No kidding... Now we get to marvel at all the pinks and white on the sfc temp maps...

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Mean supercell south of the Black Hills currently, tornado reported.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY

810 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHEYENNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHWESTERN DAWES COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA...

NORTH CENTRAL SIOUX COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 845 PM MDT

* AT 806 PM MDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO 12

MILES NORTH OF MONTROSE...OR 17 MILES SOUTHEAST OF EDGEMONT.

DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

AT 805 PM MDT...A TORNADO WAS REPORTED NEAR RUMFORD...MOVING

SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

WHITNEY LAKE...CHADRON AIRPORT AND WHITNEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT TAKE SHELTER UNDER HIGHWAY OVERPASSES. AS A LAST

RESORT...EITHER PARK YOUR VEHICLE AND STAY PUT...OR ABANDON YOUR

VEHICLE AND LIE DOWN IN A LOW LYING AREA.

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Jesus...

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD

820 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012

SDC047-230245-

/O.CON.KUNR.TO.W.0006.000000T0000Z-120623T0245Z/

FALL RIVER SD-

820 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL FALL RIVER

COUNTY UNTIL 845 PM MDT...

AT 815 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND STORM

SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO. THIS

TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR RUMFORD...OR 17 MILES SOUTHEAST OF

EDGEMONT...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

NORTH OF ARDMORE ALONG HIGHWAY 71.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY

TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE

TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID

WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE

CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

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A member of the TVN crew just claimed it's the "most beautiful tornado ever" and compared it to Campo. I have to say, nothing irks me more than seeing posts like that from people who can't just wait until they have a pic/video to share... talk about wx blue balls.

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Timmer is reporting his possy intercepted a "very strong tornado" that blew out the back window of his Dominator 2 and destroyed all the equipment in the back of the vehicle. Pretty impressive photos he shared and there's no use in whining about his tactics anymore.

He'll probably end up killing himself someday. These are days that chase everything pays off... except that almost no one other than weather nerds gives half a crap about SD.

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He'll probably end up killing himself someday. These are days that chase everything pays off... except that almost no one other than weather nerds gives half a crap about SD.

Yes to both parts. When that does happen it will give an unfortunate black eye to the storm chasing/spotting community.

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He'll probably end up killing himself someday. These are days that chase everything pays off... except that almost no one other than weather nerds gives half a crap about SD.

A bit harsh to say...you have to give him credit for his effort, though. There has been times this year were he intercepted tornadoes that few, if any, other chasers saw (5/22/12-ND/Canadian border, 6/7/12-Wheatland, WY, 6/22/12 -extreme SW SD).

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