220mph Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Pretty classic hook echo and the VIL shows as well - yet no warming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Pretty classic hook echo and the VIL shows as well - yet no warming The 0.5° velocity scan does not show much in the way of low-level rotation, for now. Mid-level rotation is impressive, as are the 60k ft. tops. Very nice discrete supercell, which is about all one can ask for in the Plains this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
220mph Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 I'm no expert and might be missing something altogether but sure seems like NWS is asleep at the wheel ... they've warned stuff not remotely close to this regularly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 I'm no expert and might be missing something altogether but sure seems like NWS is asleep at the wheel ... they've warned stuff not remotely close to this regularly what are you expecting? a tornado warning? As brett said, there is nice mid-level rotation but not much closer to the surface, and its north of the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 so much for the high-end severe weather this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 so much for the high-end severe weather this week No kidding... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 I'm no expert and might be missing something altogether but sure seems like NWS is asleep at the wheel ... they've warned stuff not remotely close to this regularly You can clearly see the RFD/outflow has cut out ahead of the storm in this image. The tornado potential is not determined on reflectivity alone. If that was the case we would have had most of D/FW under TWs last Wednesday. I would urge you not to bash professionals when you yourself said you're qualified to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Reed just posted on fb that a "Substantial Tornado Threat" is developing across Minnesota... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Reed just posted on fb that a "Substantial Tornado Threat" is developing across Minnesota... Not if the warm front doesn't push N fast. All of the region S of it is way capped, with H7 temps 13-14C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 It certainly looks like moisture convergence and CAPE are very high at the front in Minnesota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MnWeatherman Posted June 19, 2012 Author Share Posted June 19, 2012 From MPX: HRRR AND LOCAL WRF SHOW CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN MN REMAINING IN PLACE TODAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY INHIBIT THE NORTHERN PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT. AT THE MOMENT...CURRENT THINKING BASED ON THE RAP...HRRR...AND 12Z GEM IS THAT BY 21Z...THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR A GRANITE FALLS...TO ST. CLOUD...TO MORA LINE. GIVEN CONVECTION OVER NRN MN...FEEL 12Z GFS/NAM PUSH THE FRONT TOO FAR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. Doesn't sound good to me, with such warm 700mb temps close by. Feeling it might be another possible bust... Anyway, how do change the thread date to extend it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 That cap is strong but nice profiler out of WDLM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 SPC was very close to pulling a moderate risk... DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0258 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012 VALID 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... ..UPPER MIDWEST CONSIDERED AN UPGRADE TO A WIND-DRIVEN MODERATE RISK IN PARTS OF CNTRL MN. A STRONGLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR IS PREVALENT S OF A WARM FRONT ARCING ACROSS E-CNTRL SD TO NRN WI WITH PRIMARY SURFACE LOW NEAR HON AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD INTO SWRN NEB. VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR EXISTS WITHIN THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE. PRIMARY CONCERN IS WITH REGARD TO WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AS LEAD SHORT WAVE IMPULSE IS WELL REMOVED TO THE NW ALONG THE MT/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER...AND UPSTREAM IMPULSE IS STILL OVER THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. CONVERGENCE INVOF SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY EVENING...BEYOND THE ELEVATED ONGOING CONVECTION OVER NRN MN. UPSCALE GROWTH AND CONSOLIDATING COLD POOLS WILL BE NECESSARY FOR AN MCS TO OVERCOME OPEN WARM SECTOR INHIBITION. IF THIS INDEED OCCURS...POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE FOR HIGHER-END COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF ALL SEVERE TYPES. ..CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WITH APPROACH OF THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE OVER THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...ASCENT WILL STRENGTHEN AND YIELD TSTM CLUSTERS AFTER DARK. SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR AND MUCAPE WILL EXIST FOR HAIL-PRODUCING STORMS AND THUS HAVE EXTENDED SLIGHT RISK WWD. ..GRAMS.. 06/19/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 2012 has sure been the opposite of 2011 in terms of severe weather. Disappointing to chasers but not to those recovering from last year's tornadoes (such as the Joplin tornado of May 22, 2011). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Reed just posted on fb that a "Substantial Tornado Threat" is developing across Minnesota... Reed has zero credibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 When/ If any Discrete Supercells form across western Minnesota, or Northeastern South Dakota it could get pretty interesting... Especially since there is 400-500 Effective Helicity m2/s2 and 65-70kt Bulk-Shear in place.... Although the Warm front would definitely have to move a bit farther north for anything to happen... EDIT: Wow... Now there is 400-700 Effective Helicity in place m2/s2.. With a Supercell Composite of 36.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Sorta off-topic, but is anyone else having trouble downloading Level 2 data from KMPX and surrounding sites at the moment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 When/ If any Discrete Supercells form across western Minnesota, or Northeastern South Dakota it could get pretty interesting... Especially since there is 400-500 Effective Helicity m2/s2 and 65-70kt Bulk-Shear in place.... Although the Warm front would definitely have to move a bit farther north for anything to happen... EDIT: Wow... Now there is 400-700 Effective Helicity in place m2/s2.. With a Supercell Composite of 36.. Doesn't matter if nothing fires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1224 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0456 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NERN NEB...ERN SD...SERN ND INTO CNTRL MN CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 192156Z - 192330Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...UNCERTAINTY LINGERS CONCERNING TIMING OF BOUNDARY LAYER BASED WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT...AND INITIATION OF MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION WITHIN LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...ONE OR MORE WATCHES LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED BY EARLY EVENING...PERHAPS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. DISCUSSION...VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR CONTINUES TO PROVIDE STRONG INHIBITION TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BOTH IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE DEEP EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA CYCLONE...AND WITHIN AT LEAST A NARROW CORRIDOR TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING TO THE EAST NORTHEAST...ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE VERY MOIST WARM SECTOR HAS BECOME MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE NOW ON THE ORDER OF 2000-3000+ J/KG. AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONG AND FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SIZABLE AND SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADIC POTENTIAL...MAINLY ALONG THE WARM FRONT. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS MAXIMIZED NEAR THE SURFACE LOW...FROM HURON INTO THE WATERTOWN AREA...AND DEEPENING CONVECTION IS ALREADY EVIDENT TO THE NORTH OF HURON. GUIDANCE IS ALSO SUGGESTIVE THAT A WEAKNESS IN THE INHIBITION MAY EXIST ACROSS THIS VICINITY...SOUTHWARD ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...ALONG WHICH SHALLOWER CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN EVIDENT. MEANWHILE...AN INCREASE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT DOES APPEAR UNDERWAY TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WHICH THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH SUGGESTS MAY EXPAND CONSIDERABLY AND GROW UPSCALE THROUGH THE 00-02Z TIME FRAME. WHILE THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS REMAINS A BIT UNCLEAR...THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...INCLUDING THE RISK FOR TORNADOES...APPEARS TO EXIST WITH CONVECTION NEAR THE HURON/WATERTOWN AREAS...IF AND WHEN THE CAP FINALLY BREAKS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 so much for the high-end severe weather this week Lol 2012 for virtually everything after 4/14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Tornado watch out. Central MN, north of the Twin Cities, NE SD and NW WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Fairly low-end Tornado Watch with only 30/30 probs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 They'd be a lot higher if this EML wasn't being such a stick in the mud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Looks like there's a supercell tracking over west Lake Superior in the past half hour, with strong velocities indicated. That's exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 They'd be a lot higher if this EML wasn't being such a stick in the mud. Yeah, once I read the Watch discussion I finally came to my senses and realized duh, there is an extensive cap in place... And if there wasn't the probabilities would be much much higher.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Looks like there's a supercell tracking over west Lake Superior in the past half hour, with strong velocities indicated. That's exciting. Looks like a pretty good environment for elevated supercells up there with strong 0-3 km SRH and very strong deep layer shear. Low lake temps and subsequent lacking SFC instability will nullify any tornado chances though... Not really much evidence that CI is imminent in the "primed zone" where tornado parameters are currently maxed out, despite CINH eroding in SE SD and parts of MN. The most favorable synoptic forcing for ascent looks to be to the north and west of the warm sector as well (approaching UL shortwave, 700 mb frontagenesis, and LL convergence). EMLs have really been event killers this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Looks like there's a supercell tracking over west Lake Superior in the past half hour, with strong velocities indicated. That's exciting. It looked pretty good before exiting land but I guess it was probably elevated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 EML was a problem last yr a lot too. We did have a few solid Plains events but outside those it wasn't the best yr either. Drought? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 700mb temps CAP is trying hard to break... (Blue to red transition is 11C) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 700mb temps CAP is trying hard to break... (Blue to red transition is 11C) Cap may not directly be the issue. CINH has apparently eroded for quite a few events this year where convection failed to form. I think in many of these events with warmer 700 mb temps, 0 CINH isn't enough for CI. As shallow convection (i.e. shallow CU field) encounters a warm EML, mixing of dry air parcels with moist ascending air usually kills initial convective plumes. In situations where CI occurs, subsequent plumes gradually moisten the mid-level environment and allow for eventual sustained deep convection. Many of the events this year have failed to reach this point, which suggests to me very dry EMLs are have been the issue this year more so than the cap "failing to break" (which terminologically suggests that CINH remained nonzero). In a synoptic scale sense, i suspect this has to do with many upper level disturbances this year having neutral or positive tilt, which will generally result in upper level forcing displaced to the N and W of the warm sector (and subsequent upper level "support" in eroding EMLs). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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