SmokeEater Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 High end non PDS Tornado Watch out, TOR probs 70/40, Hail 95+/70+. URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 404 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 345 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN MINNESOTA SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 345 PM UNTIL 1000 PM CDT. SEVERAL TORNADOES ISOLATED INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL HAIL TO 3.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST OF ABERDEEN SOUTH DAKOTA TO 45 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ALEXANDRIA MINNESOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER NORTHEAST SD IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. LOCAL VAD/PROFILER OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR ARE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO A BOW ECHO LATER THIS EVENING WITH AN ENHANCED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27035. ...HART Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 I'm a bit surprised that the SPC went with a higher-end non-PDS TOR Watch... Ever since the 13Z outlook, they've seemed a bit optimistic about Tornado Potential... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 I'm a bit surprised that the SPC went with a higher-end non-PDS TOR Watch... Ever since the 13Z outlook, they've seemed a bit optimistic about Tornado Potential... LCLs across ern SD and SE ND aren't really that bad, and the HRRR analysis is under-representing moisture. Tds are generally from 64 in SE ND to 70 N of FSD, a good bit higher than the HRRR analyzed values. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 Cells quickly firing in NE SD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 From nothing, to a severe warning in 15 minutes. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 506 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ABERDEEN HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... EASTERN MARSHALL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA... * UNTIL 545 PM CDT * AT 505 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES EAST OF BRITTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... LAKE CITY AND ROY LAKE STATE PARK AROUND 520 PM CDT... HILLHEAD AROUND 530 PM CDT... VEBLEN AROUND 540 PM CDT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 512 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ABERDEEN HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... WEST CENTRAL BROWN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA... NORTHEASTERN EDMUNDS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA... SOUTHEASTERN MCPHERSON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA... * UNTIL 615 PM CDT * AT 509 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MINA...OR 12 MILES EAST OF IPSWICH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... LONG LAKE COLONY AROUND 520 PM CDT... WETONKA AROUND 525 PM CDT... RICHMOND LAKE REC AREA AROUND 535 PM CDT... WESTPORT AROUND 555 PM CDT... BARNARD AROUND 600 PM CDT... THIS WARNING INCLUDES HIGHWAY 281 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 196 AND 216. THIS WARNING INCLUDES HIGHWAY 12 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 270 AND 284. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 534 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ABERDEEN HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN MARSHALL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA... * UNTIL 600 PM CDT * AT 532 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HILLHEAD...OR 15 MILES EAST OF BRITTON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. * THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR... VEBLEN AROUND 550 PM CDT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 Looks a bit clustered/cluttered right now. If things space out a little bit it could get more impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 That supercell with the TOR warning looks pretty sweet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 That supercell with the TOR warning looks pretty sweet... pretty messy... run to the tail and hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 The cell that is trying to fire near Huron will be moving into a very favorable environment later on, should it indeed develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 A little blip on the radar showing up in Beadle County near Huron, SD. It may have a better chance to be discrete if it matures. EDIT: Oops, didn't see Andy almost posted the same exact thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 Eric Whitehill's cam: http://content.wdtinc.com/popout/index.php?M=14613&C=20643&O=10129 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 Converged almost immediately after the cells went up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 even the aberdeen cell looks iffy with that outflow it's kicking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 The cell that is trying to fire near Huron will be moving into a very favorable environment later on, should it indeed develop. Yeah the shear profiles are better down there, so storms have a better chance of being discrete. Granted, LCLs are higher down south, so that may not translate into greater chances of tornado potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 Yeah the shear profiles are better down there, so storms have a better chance of being discrete. Granted, LCLs are higher down south, so that may not translate into greater chances of tornado potential. They should lower with time though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1200 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0552 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN SD INTO W CNTRL MN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 404... VALID 172252Z - 180015Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 404 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA BETWEEN NOW AND 00-02Z. DISCUSSION...INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS NOW UNDERWAY EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW CENTER...WITHIN A BROAD WARM FRONTAL ZONE...WHERE THE THERMAL GRADIENT HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH EARLY DAY CONVECTION TO THE EAST...AND STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING TO NEAR 100F TO THE WEST. STRONG LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH INTO AN ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM BY EARLY EVENING...AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EAST SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON STRONGLY SHEARED 30-40 KT...AND STRENGTHENING...DEEP LAYER WESTERLY MEAN FLOW. HOWEVER... DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT MAY REMAIN PROMINENT INTO THE 00-02Z TIME FRAME. SOME UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST CONCERNING THE DEGREE OF SATURATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...EVEN AS STORMS PROPAGATE EASTWARD TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE GRADIENT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST OF ALEXANDRIA. HOWEVER...WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB JET FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN IN EXCESS OF 40-50 KT...LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...AT LEAST...APPEAR LIKELY TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADIC POTENTIAL. ..KERR.. 06/17/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 559 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ABERDEEN HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN MARSHALL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA... NORTHWESTERN ROBERTS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA... * UNTIL 630 PM CDT * AT 555 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR VEBLEN...OR 16 MILES NORTHWEST OF SISSETON...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. IN ADDITION...AT 5:55 PM TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED 7 MILES WEST OF VEBLEN WITH THIS STORM. * THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN MARSHALL AND NORTHWESTERN ROBERTS COUNTIES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 Sick OFBs from KABR Looks 50x better on GR though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 Rapidly rotating wall cloud reported on the cell east of ABR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 Rapidly rotating wall cloud reported on the cell east of ABR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 aberdeen cell got a torn warn tho not much rotation on radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 613 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ABERDEEN HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EAST CENTRAL BROWN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA... NORTHWESTERN DAY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA... * UNTIL 700 PM CDT * AT 608 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GROTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. * THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR... ANDOVER AROUND 625 PM CDT... PIERPONT AROUND 630 PM CDT... BRISTOL AROUND 635 PM CDT... HOLMQUIST AROUND 645 PM CDT... THIS WARNING INCLUDES HIGHWAY 12 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 305 AND 340. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 pretty messy... run to the tail and hope. I noticed... Everything got really messy really quick... Looking like at some point it could develop into a Bow-Echo/ small QLCS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 Tvn bailed almost right when it got torn warned. Those cells south do appear to be trying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 A bunch of storms are starting to fire up over Minnesota... And they're not quite as messy-- at least not yet--as the storms in NE South Dakota... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 642 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ABERDEEN HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN TRAVERSE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA... * UNTIL 715 PM CDT * AT 640 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF WHEATON. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 A couple of pretty decent mesocyclones are moving through areas between Morris and Marshall MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 The massive storm southwest of Sisseton has a chance, starting to develop stronger inflow and decent low level broad rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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