MnWeatherman Posted June 15, 2012 Author Share Posted June 15, 2012 Very impressive rainfall totals just south of the Twin Cities. Radar estimating upwards of 10"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Can someone explain how a 46,000 ft cell is developing out of nothing just east of Denver behind that big line of storms and the front going through the central plains? Don't big rain events usually trail these quasi-linear fronts? Sluggerwx, Not sure if you are new to this, or a seasoned veteran of Denver Colorado. The Palmer Divide just has this ability to create extreme weather event. You would have to have a serious snowblower and a practically bulletproof car for the hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Sluggerwx, Not sure if you are new to this, or a seasoned veteran of Denver Colorado. The Palmer Divide just has this ability to create extreme weather event. You would have to have a serious snowblower and a practically bulletproof car for the hail. Definitely new to this rapidly changing weather in Denver - been here only 5 months! Denver weather/weather on the front range sure does seem insanely difficult to predict. It's difficult to understand what you're looking at if you're looking west of Denver on RADAR - definitely seems like the Rockies' affect a lot of the doppler data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 One hell of an MCV ended up forming out of that DMC last evening. NAM 18z initialized MCV in the 500 height progs.That system is getting pretty close to synoptic scale in size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Tornado warning issued for Saskatoon, Saskatchewan. Some of these rural municipalities have been under tornado warning for two hours now. TORNADO WARNING UPDATED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2:46 PM CST FRIDAY 15 JUNE 2012. --------------------------------------------------------------------- TORNADO WARNING FOR: =NEW= CITY OF SASKATOON =NEW= R.M. OF CORMAN PARK INCLUDING MARTENSVILLE WARMAN AND LANGHAM =NEW= R.M. OF VANSCOY INCLUDING DELISLE ASQUITH AND VANSCOY =NEW= R.M. OF DUNDURN INCLUDING DUNDURN AND BLACKSTRAP PROV. PARK R.M. OF EAGLE CREEK INCLUDING ARELEE AND SONNINGDALE R.M. OF PERDUE INCLUDING PERDUE AND KINLEY R.M. OF EYE HILL INCLUDING MACKLIN DENZIL AND EVESHAM R.M. OF GRASS LAKE INCLUDING SALVADOR AND REWARD R.M. OF HEART'S HILL INCLUDING CACTUS LAKE R.M. OF PROGRESS INCLUDING KERROBERT AND LUSELAND R.M. OF TRAMPING LAKE INCLUDING SCOTT AND REVENUE R.M. OF REFORD INCLUDING LANDIS AND LEIPZIG R.M. OF MARIPOSA INCLUDING TRAMPING LAKE AND BROADACRES R.M. OF GRANDVIEW INCLUDING HANDEL AND KELFIELD R.M. OF ROSEMOUNT INCLUDING CANDO AND TRAYNOR R.M. OF BIGGAR INCLUDING BIGGAR AND SPRINGWATER R.M. OF SENLAC INCLUDING SENLAC R.M. OF ROUND VALLEY INCLUDING UNITY R.M. OF BUFFALO INCLUDING WILKIE AND PHIPPEN R.M. OF GLENSIDE NORTH OF BIGGAR. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ==DISCUSSION== SCATTERED, SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FUNNEL CLOUDS OR TORNADOES HAVE FORMED IN AN AREA AROUND KERROBERT, BIGGAR, WILKIE AND MACKLIN. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ON A LINE EASTWARD AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SASKATOON BY 4PM CST. BRIEF TORNADOES WERE REPORTED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON FROM SIMILARCELLS NEAR PLOVER LAKE, SOUTH OF WILKIE AND NORTH OF BIGGAR. QUARTER SIZED HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED AT LUSELAND. HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF 50 MM PER HOUR OR MORE ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 The Weather Network says this is the tornado near Wilkie, Saskatchewan this afternoon. Dozens of funnels and tornado reports are coming in by the hour to TWN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Seven hours and counting of continuous tornado warnings around west central Saskatchewan and the city of Saskatoon. At least 10 tornadoes have been reported this afternoon/evening. CTV Saskatoon reported from some damaged buildings. http://watch.ctv.ca/news/latest/tornado-watch/#clip701478 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MnWeatherman Posted June 17, 2012 Author Share Posted June 17, 2012 15% hatched! SPC mentioning strong tornadoes, I'll be heading out that way tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 AM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN SD...SW MN AND FAR NW IA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY... SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WITH TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT... ...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY... ZONAL WLY FLOW WILL EXIST ACROSS THE NCNTRL STATES TODAY AS THE EXIT REGION OF A MID-LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP CREATE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. AT THE SFC...A LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ACROSS ECNTRL SD WITH A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE MID-MO VALLEY NWD INTO ERN SD AND SW MN BY LATE AFTERNOON. SFC DEWPOINTS APPEAR LIKELY TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S F WITH MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS IN ERN SD AND MOVING AN CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION EWD ACROSS SRN MN THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z/MON IN ERN SD SHOW MLCAPE FROM 2500 TO 3000 J/KG WITH AN IMPRESSIVE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY REACHING 50 TO 55 KT BY EARLY EVENING. THIS ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING 40 TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR AND JUST EAST OF ABERDEEN AT 00Z/MON SHOW 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES OF 350 TO 400 M2/S2 WITH LCL HEIGHTS AROUND 700 METERS SUGGESTING A THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...SUPERCELLS SHOULD CONTAIN LARGE HAIL WITH HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE DOMINANT ROTATING STORMS. AS STORM COVERAGE INCREASES DURING THE EVENT...A LINE OF STORMS COULD ORGANIZE ACROSS SRN MN WITH DISCRETE ROTATING CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. THE STRONG SHEAR AND WELL-DEVELOPED LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP THE TORNADO THREAT TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER...A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO A WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD TAKE PLACE DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVENING. THE LINE COULD MOVE ESEWD INTO CNTRL AND ERN IA BY LATE IN THE EVENING. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DROP OFF QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE MCS MAINLY DUE TO WARMING MID-LEVEL TEMPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 06z NAM for Sioux Falls, SD valid at 7pm cdt tonight... Eta4 sounding for Sioux Falls at 7pm cdt tonight... UKMET sounding for Sioux Falls at 7pm cdt tonight. Things could get very dicey later today in SD/MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 Removed the 15% hatched TOR. Concerns that guidance is overdoing moisture. ADDITIONALLY...MORNING OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY OVER-FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MID-UPPER 60S MOST PROBABLE. STILL...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES BELOW 600 MB AND SURFACE HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS WILL RESULT IN WEAKENING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION BY LATE AFTERNOON...WHEN MLCAPE WILL INCREASE TO 2500-3000 J/KG AND CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EXPECTED NEAR THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH IN ERN SD. VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT AND SPEED INCREASES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KT. THE ORIENTATION OF THE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTORS ACROSS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL FAVOR INITIALLY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL IN THE STEEP LAPSE RATE/LARGE BUOYANCY ENVIRONMENT. TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL BE MARGINALLY LARGE FOR SIGNIFICANT AND LONG-LIVED TORNADOES...THOUGH INCREASING SRH THROUGH THE EVENING AND INITIALLY DISCRETE STORM MODES DO SUPPORT A RISK FOR TORNADOES IN ROUGHLY THE 22-02Z TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO GROW INTO A LARGER CLUSTER BY LATE EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS SW MN...AND THEN CONTINUE GENERALLY EWD OVERNIGHT WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 Projected radar image for early this evening... ...then the projected radar image for late tonight into the overnight hours. It seems like storms should be mainly discrete for a few hours after they fire up. Late night tonight showing the evolution into a squall line for Minneapolis/St. Paul, Minnesota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 12z NAM showing good moisture return into South Dakota and Minnesota. Middle 60s to lower 70 dewpoints around 21z today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 Not liking the ongoing convection. Deja vu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 12z NAM showing good moisture return into South Dakota and Minnesota. Middle 60s to lower 70 dewpoints around 21z today. So does the RAP, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 Not liking the ongoing convection. Deja vu. Yeah that's not going to help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 Some decent convection going on in the MDT zone. Another moderate risk in trouble? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 Some decent convection going on in the MDT zone. Another moderate risk in trouble? Lol this year. New outlook does mention dewpoints have risen into the mid 60s across the threatened area, although that may not matter if all this crapvection doesn't clear out in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 it does look like the area west is priming nicely.. as long as clouds/etc don't chill for too long might be OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 SPC still not dropping the 10% tornado probs. Bet they will later though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 SPC still not dropping the 10% tornado probs. Bet they will later though. Many of the parameters later on do support it though should initiation take place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 SPC still not dropping the 10% tornado probs. Bet they will later though. The mod is for hail at this pt. Not sure current tor probs are excessive. Their text has hinted they think there are issues there anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 SPC still not dropping the 10% tornado probs. Bet they will later though. There's plenty of time for that crapvection to clear out, and if boundaries get set down, look out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 LL shear is already progged to be off the charts later on, so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 Just a little fun fact, if there is no tornado reports today, it will be the first time since 2002 that June 17th did not produce somewhere in the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 Just a little fun fact, if there is no tornado reports today, it will be the first time since 2002 that June 17th did not produce somewhere in the US. looks like since 2000. 2002 had one in FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 Just a little fun fact, if there is no tornado reports today, it will be the first time since 2002 that June 17th did not produce somewhere in the US. Very interesting fact. There should be some reports today with the 10% in place... But then again, it's 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 It was clear that guidance was overdoing moisture.... (LCLs are going to be pretty high) No MDT risk has verified this year. Call me the eternal skeptic, but the 10% risk is the greatest that I can see "verify". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 looks like the region is recovering fairly well. dews are maybe a bit low but should suffice. not sure how long things stay discrete.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1198 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0215 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN SD...SWRN MN AND SERN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 171915Z - 172115Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NERN SD INTO SWRN MN THIS AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 20-22Z. SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE INITIAL PRIMARY THREAT...ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO LINES AND OR CLUSTERS WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND. DISCUSSION...THIS AFTERNOON A WARM FRONT STRETCHES FROM WRN IA NWWD TO EXTREME SERN MN...NERN SD TO A SFC LOW IN SCNTRL ND. TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SWD THROUGH WCNTRL SD. AN E-W CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS ALSO INDICATED OVER SWRN MN WWD INTO EXTREME ERN SD JUST NORTH OF SIOUX FALLS. WARM SECTOR HAS BEEN DESTABILIZING WHERE PLUME OF 7.5 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE ADVECTED ABOVE MID 60S DEWPOINTS WITH 2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE INDICATED OVER ERN SD. THE EWD ADVECTING EML HAS CAPPED THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND INHIBITED SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION SO FAR. HOWEVER...AS THE SFC LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MOST LIKELY WITHIN ZONE OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE WHERE THE LLJ INTERSECTS WRN EXTENSION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER SWRN MN AND FAR ERN SD. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH FROM SRN ND INTO NRN SD ALONG AND EAST OF SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE AND WITHIN ZONE OF HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH PROGRESSIVE VORT MAX LOCATED OVER EXTREME SRN ALBERTA. VERTICAL SHEAR OF 40+ KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. TORNADO THREAT WILL BE GREATEST FROM NERN SD INTO SWRN MN ALONG NOSE OF LLJ AND WHERE SLIGHTLY LOWER LCLS EXIST ALONG MOIST AXIS AND WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS COOLER. STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO CLUSTERS AND LINES WITH A CONTINUING THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ..DIAL/HART.. 06/17/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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