Amped Posted June 13, 2012 Share Posted June 13, 2012 There is a nice zonal troff plowing through the west into the plains. As has beern the story most of this year most ingrediants are present for a big outbreak day 7-10 except maybe the dewpoints. The Euro shows more moisture return than the GFS. In the earlier half of the timeframe there are a couple of shortwaves moving into the Dakotas and MN. Dews and LCLs look to supress most of the tornado activity, but some is still possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 13, 2012 Share Posted June 13, 2012 The 00z GFS Op/Ensembles, GGEM OP/Ensembles and Euro OP/Ensembles all look favorable from a general synoptics point of view regarding this time period, as a powerful LLJ surges northward bringing some moisture directly from the Caribbean and Gulf (despite the east coast troughing, the Bermuda High looks strong enough to overcome it, at least in the maps posted above). Certainly a time period to watch, given the strength of the incipient LL cyclogenesis being progged by many of the models. One thing is for certain, with an expansive, low amplitude, broad based trough such as the one being shown, the upper air pattern certainly looks nice...lets hope this isn't another tease like the one a few weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 13, 2012 Author Share Posted June 13, 2012 SPC on board for an outbreak in their discussion. DAY 2 GIVEN THE COMPACT NATURE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...STRONG WIND PROFILES SHOULD REMAIN FROM PARTS OF MN NWD...WITH THE NAM BEING DISPLACED SOMEWHAT S OF THE ECMWF/GFS. OVERLAP OF THE STRONG SHEAR WITH MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY NARROW AND CONDITIONAL ON PLACEMENT OF THE EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT. THIS COULD YIELD A FAVORABLE CORRIDOR FOR SUPERCELLS...BUT IS TOO LOW IN PREDICTABILITY TO WARRANT ENHANCED SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITIES ATTM. ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130840 SPC AC 130840 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0340 AM CDT WED JUN 13 2012 VALID 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN POTENTIAL FOR A HIGHER-END SEVERE THREAT IN PORTIONS OF THE N-CNTRL CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. BUT SPATIOTEMPORAL DIFFERENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO BREED AMPLE UNCERTAINTY TO MITIGATE ENHANCED SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITIES ATTM. CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WITH SUBSTANTIAL AMPLIFICATION OF A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH INTO THE N-CNTRL OR PERHAPS NWRN CONUS. THIS APPEARS TO BE DRIVEN BY AN INTENSE UPPER-LEVEL JET APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW THIS WEEKEND. WHERE EXACTLY THIS TROUGH AMPLIFIES IS MODERATELY UNCERTAIN WITH THE ECMWF REMAINING FARTHER EAST THAN OTHER GUIDANCE...BUT THE GFS/CMC AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION. WHAT IS MORE PROBLEMATIC IS POOR AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE IMPULSES. THESE WILL MODULATE THE OVERLAP OF STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WITH THE NRN EXTENT OF SUFFICIENTLY LARGE BUOYANCY IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES SWWD TO THE CNTRL PLAINS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 4-8 discussion had some interesting wording. Seems quite conditional though. "LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY PLAGUES BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WITH THE HANDLING OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NWRN/N-CNTRL CONUS. ON THE BROADER-SCALE...GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING AN INTENSE UPPER-LEVEL JET REACHING THE PACIFIC NW BY D4. AMPLIFICATION OF ANY ONE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS COULD YIELD HIGHER-END SEVERE POTENTIAL WHEREVER STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OVERSPREADS THE NRN EXTENT OF AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PARTS OF THE N-CNTRL CONUS. BUT GIVEN THE POOR PREDICTABILITY OF THE INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES...ENHANCED SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITIES ARE NOT WARRANTED ATTM." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 4-8 discussion had some interesting wording. Seems quite conditional though. "LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY PLAGUES BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WITH THE HANDLING OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NWRN/N-CNTRL CONUS. ON THE BROADER-SCALE...GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING AN INTENSE UPPER-LEVEL JET REACHING THE PACIFIC NW BY D4. AMPLIFICATION OF ANY ONE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS COULD YIELD HIGHER-END SEVERE POTENTIAL WHEREVER STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OVERSPREADS THE NRN EXTENT OF AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PARTS OF THE N-CNTRL CONUS. BUT GIVEN THE POOR PREDICTABILITY OF THE INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES...ENHANCED SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITIES ARE NOT WARRANTED ATTM." Maybe we'll get lucky in Coloardo and get a good chase day - will be watching this closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 4-8 discussion had some interesting wording. Seems quite conditional though. I think it's more of a question of where and possibly more importantly how one of these amplifications will take place, given a broad upper trough such as this, embedded short wave impulses and vort maxes are going to be a given. The GFS seems to want to go the route of intensifying the lead anomaly while the Euro (and NAM/GGEM) beefs up the one succeeding it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 15, 2012 Author Share Posted June 15, 2012 There are several shortwaves . I'd like to see less shortwaves with stronger height falls. The 00z GFS mini storm Day 7-8 does would be interting. Doubt it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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