bluewave Posted June 13, 2012 Author Share Posted June 13, 2012 Great stats as always Uncle. It's interesting to see how the hottest temperatures arriving in September were more common further back in time. I guess it's the faster increase in August temperatures than September over the years. It was probably just easier in an era of cooler summers for a a hotter temperature to arrive in September. August September Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 Looks like that heat around the solstice is persisting on the models. Also looks like a late month trough cooldown occurred in '06 - perhaps like whats projcted on recent guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 Great stuff bluewave and always accompanied with great maps. As a summer weather enthusiast, I'll gladly take 2006 even though it was quite wet. Jun, Jul and Aug over 6 inches of rail each month. I think the Mid Atlantic had some bad flooding in June as well. But the rain didnt prevent some torching in mid jul - early Aug. How did 2008 compare? 2008 was a lot like 1984. Torching concentrated in early-mid June, almost day for day. Also a lot like 1925. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 2008 was a lot like 1984. Torching concentrated in early-mid June, almost day for day. Also a lot like 1925. Thanks JBG - my question was more about the enso and upper air maps as I have the dailies from then. The solstice heat signal looks good for next wed (6/20) - fri (6/22) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Thanks. We had some very memorable July events that year. It will be interesting to see if Central Park closes out the summer with a 0 to +1 type departure. It would be a step down from the last few summers but still have some heat mixed in. I remember some tornado activity in my neck of the woods, Westchester, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Maybe looking at a version of last year as a type of analog. Strong heat Jun 7 - 10th then no heat till early July. Just some though to add to the discussion as we progress through June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Maybe looking at a version of last year as a type of analog. Strong heat Jun 7 - 10th then no heat till early July. Just some though to add to the discussion as we progress through June. Probably a good analog. Particularly if you believe, as I do, that Niño won't really take hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 16, 2012 Author Share Posted June 16, 2012 Maybe looking at a version of last year as a type of analog. Strong heat Jun 7 - 10th then no heat till early July. Just some though to add to the discussion as we progress through June. The June timing of the hottest temperatures still looks to be similar to 2006 but this heat this week will be more intense. The stats for Newark showed a high for May 2006 of 94 degrees on the 29th and this May 29th 92 degrees. The highest temperature during June 2006 arrived on 6-18 at 95 degrees and will be cooler and a few days earlier than this year. If the timing pattern this July is similar to 2006, then the next day above 95 degrees after this week at Newark will hold off until 7-16. Newark made it back to 96 on 7-16-06. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 16, 2012 Author Share Posted June 16, 2012 I looked up the individual monthly temperatures for NYC and EWR for JJA 2006. http://www7.ncdc.noa...4296729F2A74F40 Jun 06.....NYC...-0.2......EWR....+0.7 Jul 06......NYC...+1.5......EWR....+2.3 Aug 06....NYC...+0.7......EWR....+1.8 NYC JJA....+0.7 EWR JJA....+1.6 If the general theme holds this year, then July will see highest monthly temperature departures of the summer after a cooler June. August would finish above normal but a little lower than July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 I looked up the individual monthly temperatures for NYC and EWR for JJA 2006. http://www7.ncdc.noa...4296729F2A74F40 Jun 06.....NYC...-0.2......EWR....+0.7 Jul 06......NYC...+1.5......EWR....+2.3 Aug 06....NYC...+0.7......EWR....+1.8 NYC JJA....+0.7 EWR JJA....+1.6 If the general theme holds this year, then July will see highest monthly temperature departures of the summer after a cooler June. August would finish above normal but a little lower than July. The opening 3 or 4 days of August really saw temps peak that year. The period Jul 11th - Aug 9th was very warm overall. Looks like the 00z euro swapped with 12z gfs in bringin a much deeper trough through next weekend into the end of June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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