Where The Summer Temperature Pattern May Be Headed

[bluewave]

So far the temperature pattern is starting off similar to 2006. May 2006 ended with a couple of warm days in NYC

with a high of 88 on the 29th and 30th. NYC made it to 89 on the 28th and 29th of May this year.

Just like 2006, this June is starting out cool. The warmest temperatures of June 2006 held off until

around the summer solstice. The models are currently suggesting that the warmest temperatures

of the month will arrive around the time of the summer solstice this June. I made a few charts

comparing the pattern this June so far to 2006.

Warm up forecast compared to 2006

Current forecast brings a trough into the East near the month of June similar to 2006.

We'll have to wait and see if July and August work out along the same lines that 2006 did.

The heat during July and August of 2006 was focused between July 16th and August 5th.

NYC finished the summer back in 2006 with a temperature departure +0.6.

There were (8) 90 degree days that summer in Central Park and ( 5) 89 degree days.

The interesting thing is that we have still not seen a 90 degree day at Central Park

so far this year through the 12th like 2006.

[psv88]

Interesting that in october we had winter weather that for some was the heaviest snow of the winter, and in march/april we had weather which for some may turn out to be the hottest of the summer...

[forkyfork]

2006 had a major heat wave in early august. there was also a -nao

[forkyfork]

as well as several svr events for the nyc area

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20060704

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20060712

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20060718

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20060721

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20060728

[icebreaker5221]

Nice work bluewave. I agree that 2006 is a very good analogue for the pattern we're in right now, and also a good ENSO match. The main difference is that those cool anomalies over the Pac NW into N California this June are consistent with a -PDO, which was positive at this time in 06. PDO has been stubbornly negative since June 2010. Whether or not it will go + later in the summer remains to be seen, but we appear to be approaching a 30-year minima, so overall I would expect it to remain negative for a while longer.

Implications? Continued cool weather along the Pac NW coast, warm anomalies over the Great Basin. Any correlations east of there I don't believe are robust.

[SACRUS]

"NYC finished the summer back in 2006 with a temperature departure +0.6.

There were (8) 90 degree days that summer in Central Park and ( 5) 89 degree days.

The interesting thing is that we have still not seen a 90 degree day at Central Park

so far this year through the 12th like 2006."

2006

EWR: (90+)

May : 1

Jun: 5

Jul: 11

Aug: 9

Sep:

tot: 26

I'll post some other nearby stations in a bit. The park featured many less 90 + days than surrounding sites that year.

[SACRUS]

LGA in 2006 . 90 (+)

MAy: 0

June: 4

Jul: 12

Aug: 6

Tot: 22

[Isotherm]

Good stuff Chris. I agree about 2006, and envision temp departures finishing similarly, in the 0 to +1 for NYC. Would be nice to follow that summer T-storm wise. Had some awesome events in July IIRC.

[uncle W]

2006 had only eight days 90 or better...well below average...It had 41 days with a minimum 70 or higher...well above average...it had 15 consecutive at one point...

the records since 1930...

Total days with a minimum of 70+ and consecutive days min 70+...

year total min 70+ consecutive 70+

1930..........26............8

1931..........34............7

1932..........25............6

1933..........33............6

1934..........26............4

1935..........29..........11

1936..........20............4

1937..........28............6

1938..........34..........12

1939..........44..........13

1940..........24............8

1941..........27............6

1942..........20............4

1943..........30............4

1944..........41..........14

1945..........29............4

1946..........11............3

1947..........30............5

1948..........29............6

1949..........43..........10

1950..........13............5

1951..........23............7

1952..........38..........12

1953..........34..........10

1954..........18............5

1955..........45..........13

1956..........20............5

1957..........31............5

1958..........26............4

1959..........46..........10

1960..........20............5

1961..........42............9

1962............8............2

1963..........14............5

1964..........19............4

1965..........17............4

1966..........40..........11

1967..........17............5

1968..........29............6

1969..........33............6

1970..........37..........10

1971..........45............9

1972..........30..........15

1973..........37..........11

1974..........26............3

1975..........23..........12

1976..........24............4

1977..........37............9

1978..........31..........13

1979..........42..........17

1980..........52..........22

1981..........39............8

1982..........30..........12

1983..........45..........13

1984..........40..........16

1985..........34............6

1986..........31............4

1987..........32............7

1988..........42..........21

1989..........28............5

1990..........32............8

1991..........31............7

1992..........14............4

1993..........35..........10

1994..........35............9

1995..........39..........18

1996..........22............5

1997..........27............8

1998..........39..........11

1999..........45..........13

2000..........22............4

2001..........30............9

2002..........43............9

2003..........33..........15

2004..........28............6

2005..........60..........14

2006..........41..........15

2007..........35............8

2008..........35............8

2009..........18............5

2010..........54..........22

2011..........40...........9

1876..........46..........14

1906..........61..........17

1908..........54..........16

[bluewave]

as well as several svr events for the nyc area

http://www.spc.noaa....p?date=20060704

http://www.spc.noaa....p?date=20060712

http://www.spc.noaa....p?date=20060718

http://www.spc.noaa....p?date=20060721

http://www.spc.noaa....p?date=20060728

One of those evening events had really weak shear but extreme instability and an outflow boundary that ran

far out ahead of the convection with very gusty winds and plenty of blowing dust and sand.

[SACRUS]

2006 had only eight days 90 or better...well below average...It had 41 days with a minimum 70 or higher...well above average...it had 15 consecutive at one point...

the records since 1930...

Great stats unc. This is my and some others point about using NYC as a reference for the area. The perception here is 2006 was a fairly avg summer with much below normal 90 degree days in the entire NYC area. Meanwhile most other stations had double or 3 times as many 90 degree days that year and a very hot period the end of July to early August with several 100 degree days.

EWR: 26

LGA: 22

JFK: 13

[bluewave]

Nice work bluewave. I agree that 2006 is a very good analogue for the pattern we're in right now, and also a good ENSO match. The main difference is that those cool anomalies over the Pac NW into N California this June are consistent with a -PDO, which was positive at this time in 06. PDO has been stubbornly negative since June 2010. Whether or not it will go + later in the summer remains to be seen, but we appear to be approaching a 30-year minima, so overall I would expect it to remain negative for a while longer.

Implications? Continued cool weather along the Pac NW coast, warm anomalies over the Great Basin. Any correlations east of there I don't believe are robust.

Thanks. I agree with you about the different PDO this year. You guys out in Colorado are also experiencing drought

conditions now like 2006. It will be interesting to see how the timing and placement of the heat ridge works out this

July. If the 2006 timing analog holds, then watch for a big amplification over perhaps the Rockies and Plains states with

a piece of the heat eventually working toward the East later. I think the PAC NW will be cooler this time around

due to the persistent -PDO.

[SACRUS]

Thanks. I agree with you about the different PDO this year. You guys out in Colorado are also experiencing drought

conditions now like 2006. It will be interesting to see how the timing and placement of the heat ridge works out this

July. If the 2006 timing analog holds, then watch for a big amplification over perhaps the Rockies and Plains states with

a piece of the heat eventually working toward the East later. I think the PAC NW will be cooler this time around

due to the persistent -PDO.

Great stuff bluewave and always accompanied with great maps. As a summer weather enthusiast, I'll gladly take 2006 even though it was quite wet. Jun, Jul and Aug over 6 inches of rail each month. I think the Mid Atlantic had some bad flooding in June as well. But the rain didnt prevent some torching in mid jul - early Aug.

How did 2008 compare?

[SACRUS]

Yep DC and others had over 14 inches of rain in June much of it during the 25/26th deluge.

[bluewave]

Great stats unc. This is my and some others point about using NYC as a reference for the area. The perception here is 2006 was a fairly avg summer with much below normal 90 degree days in the entire NYC area. Meanwhile most other stations had double or 3 times as many 90 degree days that year and a very hot period the end of July to early August with several 100 degree days.

EWR: 26

LGA: 22

JFK: 13

Yeah, great job with the stats as usual Uncle.

SACRUS, thanks for adding the temperature stats for the other stations. That was one of those years that really underperformed at Central Park relative to the others. The main reason the June 2006 analog jumps out

is the warmth near the end of May followed by a cool start June. In recent years we have seen impressive

heat arrive early in June like during 2008, 2010, and 2011. This year is different and closer to 2006 in that

the warmest June temperatures arrived around the summer solstice like the current forecast is showing.

I also noticed that June 2006 ended with a trough working into the Lakes region like the models are hinting

at this time around. So I am just using the NYC data as a rough guide as guessing the correct number of

90 degree days is pretty tough.

[bluewave]

Good stuff Chris. I agree about 2006, and envision temp departures finishing similarly, in the 0 to +1 for NYC. Would be nice to follow that summer T-storm wise. Had some awesome events in July IIRC.

Thanks. We had some very memorable July events that year. It will be interesting to see if Central Park closes out the summer with a 0 to +1 type departure. It would be a step down from the last few summers but still have some heat mixed in.

[bluewave]

Great stuff bluewave and always accompanied with great maps. As a summer weather enthusiast, I'll gladly take 2006 even though it was quite wet. Jun, Jul and Aug over 6 inches of rail each month. I think the Mid Atlantic had some bad flooding in June as well. But the rain didnt prevent some torching in mid jul - early Aug.

How did 2008 compare?

Thanks. Yeah, This June is not as wet as 2006 was so far. 2008 averaged above normal at the Central Park

with heat during the first part of June and the second half of July.

[SACRUS]

Thanks. Yeah, This June is not as wet as 2006 was so far. 2008 averaged above normal at the Central Park

with heat during the first part of June and the second half of July.

I think we are wetter than normal but not to the 2006 levels. I meant the upper air in 2008 but I see now its not as good as 2006. Another year that pops up is 1996 should the park not reach 90 in June. That summer featured virtually no heat, similar to 04/09. Enso different then though, so hopefully nothing to even consider.

[uncle W]

in 2006 NYC was quite wet in June with temperatures slightly below average...that summer was very wet...

[TheTrials]

the preceding winter however looks totally different, so that should be taken into account no? nyc broke 40 inches that winter, yes?

[Isotherm]

the preceding winter however looks totally different, so that should be taken into account no? nyc broke 40 inches that winter, yes?

Looks like an OK match to me. 2011-12 certanly stronger with the torch in the East; the La Nina was also a bit stronger.

[Isotherm]

June and July were near normal; August was the warmest month in 2006. I can definitely see that happening this summer.

Overall summer very warm for the US, coolest on the East Coast. I think this could be a very good analog. (not sure how I missed it researching for my summer cal, but this is almost exactly what I have)

Same with precip, I like the very wet East. Let's hope we don't go into a 2006-07 type winter though...

[TheTrials]

Looks like an OK match to me. 2011-12 certanly stronger with the torch in the East; the La Nina was also a bit stronger.

snow fall totals dont match at all

[Isotherm]

snow fall totals dont match at all

You know as well as I do that its very difficult to a get a match on all variables. Snowfall in particular is so dependent on individual storm tracks, and often not as representative of the overall pattern, in comparison to temperature departures.

[TheTrials]

You know as well as I do that its very difficult to a get a match on all variables. Snowfall in particular is so dependent on individual storm tracks, and often not as representative of the overall pattern, in comparison to temperature departures.

i think last years lack of snow was absolutely representative of the pattern.

[NYCSuburbs]

the preceding winter however looks totally different, so that should be taken into account no? nyc broke 40 inches that winter, yes?

It was definitely snowier than 11-12 but still didn't live up to the previous winters. The February 06 blizzard and a small early December event made up a large amount of that total. Other than these two storms there wasn't a whole lot of snow that winter.

[pazzo83]

Yep DC and others had over 14 inches of rain in June much of it during the 25/26th deluge.

I remember that vividly. That summer I lived right off the Rock Creek Pkwy in Georgetown, and during that deluge the entire freaking thing (i.e. the Rock Creek) turned into a raging river, flooding out the entire roadway. Also parts of downtown DC by the gov't bldgs and the Mall lost power, which is basically unheard of as all the power lines are underground. Some of the tunnels on Mass Ave under the traffic circles got completely flooded out. Crazy stuff.

[winterwarlock]

keep 2004 and 2009 away from me and I will end up being okay

[bluewave]

keep 2004 and 2009 away from me and I will end up being okay

Those were much different years with a cold winter and spring for North America.

This year we have seen record warmth over the same time period.

[uncle W]

2006 had it's hottest temperature come in August...So far this years hottest temp is 89...When will the hottest temperature come?...probably July or August...Some years had their hottest temperature in September...That happened more often in the past......I'll guess August will see the hottest temperature like 2002 and 2006...even 2009 had it's warmest temperature in August(tie with April)...

NYC's highest temperature and month.

2011...........104...............July

2010...........103...............July

2009...........92.................April/Aug.

2008...........96.................June/July

2007...........92.................July/August

2006...........97.................August

2005...........99.................August

2004...........91.................June

2003...........94.................July

2002...........98.................August

2001...........103...............August

2000...........93.................May

1999...........101...............July

1998...........93.................July

1997...........97.................July

1996...........96.................May

1995...........102...............July

1994...........98.................June

1993...........102...............July

1992...........93.................May/July

1991...........102...............July

1990...........95.................July

1989...........96.................July

1988...........99.................July/Aug.

1987...........97.................May

1986...........98.................July

1985...........95.................August

1984...........96.................June

1983...........99.................September

1982...........98.................July

1981...........96.................July

1980...........102...............July

1979...........95.................July/Aug.

1978...........95.................July

1977...........104...............July

1976...........96.................April

1975...........98.................August

1974...........95.................July

1973...........98.................August

1972...........94.................July/Aug.

1971...........96.................July

1970...........94.................July/Aug/Sept.

1969...........97.................May

1968...........98.................July

1967...........96.................June

1966...........103...............July

1965...........95.................June

1964...........99.................June/July

1963...........98.................July

1962...........99.................May.

1961...........97.................July

1960...........91.................July/Aug.

1959...........97.................June

1958...........93.................July

..

Some other years...

1881...........101...............September

1895...........97.................September

1898...........100...............July

1901...........100...............July

1902...........90.................July

1911...........100...............July

1914...........95.................September

1915...........94.................September

1918...........104...............August

1921...........96.................September

1925...........99.................June

1926...........100...............July

1930...........102...............July

1931...........99.................September

1932...........96.................September

1933...........102...............July

1934...........101...............June

1936...........106...............July

1937...........102...............July

1944...........102...............August

1948...........103...............August

1949...........102...............July

1950...........95.................June

1952...........100...............June

1953...........102...............September

1954...........100...............July

1955...........100...............July/Aug.

1957...........101...............July

The latest date for the hottest annual temperature is 97 on 9/23/1895...

95 on 9/22/1914 99 9/11/1983...The earliest date is 96 on 4/18/1976...