Record Low Arctic Sea Ice May Help Winter Remember October Pattern

[bluewave]

Since around the winter of 2002-2003, we started seeing a tight correlation between high latitude 500 mb

height anomalies during October and the winter. This relationship didn't exist before the record

low Arctic sea ice levels during the fall. My theory is that the reduced Arctic sea ice during the fall

is somehow related to the October pattern carrying over into the winter. While I don't have the ability to

run models and prove this in a formal paper, I do find the topic worthy of further study.

The implications of this would be improved winter forecasts after the October pattern has been revealed.

I created several 500 mb height anomaly maps to show the relationship that started showing up after October 2002.

So this past winter was not much of a surprise given what the October pattern was.

2011-2012

2007-2008

2009-2010

2002-2003

I also prepared 10 year composites to show the difference between the the last 10 years

and earlier intervals. You can also see that there was no October to winter relationship

during another strong blocking decade from 1961-1970.

[bluewave]

[nzucker]

It broke down a bit in October 2010 because we had a large ULL/vortex over AK and then saw a very amplified Aleutian ridge during Winter 10-11 that kept North America cold. Many scientists have proposed however that lack of arctic sea ice is leading to changes in the 500mb heights over the area.

This paper speculates that "Negative phases of the NAO/AO frequently correlate with reduced ice conditions in the Atlantic" as well as making other comments that reductions in Arctic sea ice may affect pressures over Europe...

https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&q=cache:EppWU0SMG7sJ:www.arctic.noaa.gov/future/docs/ArcticAND_Globe.pdf+&hl=en&gl=us&pid=bl&srcid=ADGEESg64mbP0c-LSn5U_pMdQzke0EJw66JdHNE740Z3wtX22P-AFG9oGg17Xj_FvLJNFLJZmC9X280yhmOmTEXPuNtQEoeYzEizro2rKq0wv-bV4SraiAqRQnamTQbg2dxhD3Tt73Az&sig=AHIEtbSeJ7AJRzZ1cVrFTiGjTXZDYfTxwQ&pli=1

[TheTrials]

GREAT STUFF BLUEWAVE!!!

[bluewave]

It broke down a bit in October 2010 because we had a large ULL/vortex over AK and then saw a very amplified Aleutian ridge during Winter 10-11 that kept North America cold. Many scientists have proposed however that lack of arctic sea ice is leading to changes in the 500mb heights over the area.

This paper speculates that "Negative phases of the NAO/AO frequently correlate with reduced ice conditions in the Atlantic" as well as making other comments that reductions in Arctic sea ice may affect pressures over Europe...

https://docs.google....XZDYfTxwQ&pli=1

Thanks for that link. Dr.Francis from Rutgers recently had a great presentation on the topic.

Researchers from Cornell also have a study that was just published along with several others

during recent years.

http://www.news.corn...icWildcard.html

http://www.aer.com/news-events/resource-library/impact-sea-ice-cover-changes-northern-hemisphere-atmospheric-winter-cir

http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2012/02/17/1114910109.abstract

http://www.geomar.de/en/service/kommunikation/singlepm/article/erwaermung-der-arktis-beguenstigt-wetterextreme/

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1398

GREAT STUFF BLUEWAVE!!!

Thanks.

[Snow_Miser]

If the GFS or ECMWF came true, this would definitely be good news for the sea ice on a short term scale outlook: