jrodd321 Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 Gfs advertising 3-5" around the area next Wednesday to Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 Gfs advertising 3-5" around the area next Wednesday to Friday. It looks like some type of convective feedback on a vort maxima. Not doubting rainfall, just the totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted June 9, 2012 Author Share Posted June 9, 2012 It looks like some type of convective feedback on a vort maxima. Not doubting rainfall, just the totals. Agreed, only reason I mentioned it was cause I've been seeing it recently and 12z has some big totals for NE PA and N NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 Agreed, only reason I mentioned it was cause I've been seeing it recently and 12z has some big totals for NE PA and N NJ. euro is going with 1.25-1.75 for the region, which is a big bump up from 0z.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 It looks like some type of convective feedback on a vort maxima. Not doubting rainfall, just the totals. im not sure if its convective feedback or just stalling the front. Majority of its ensembles are just as wet or wetter. The 12z euro bumper up its precip totals also. The ggem has also been in the same ball park as the gfs.. so we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 decent model agreement in a swath of heavy rain across the area. localized flooding could be a concern, especially if the rain sets up in bands that keep passing over the same area on a SSW to NNE heading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 its way too early for this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted June 10, 2012 Author Share Posted June 10, 2012 its way too early for this Not really. Like Tom said there is a good amount of model support. Nothing else to really tall about now so why not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 GFS has scaled back a bit on the 0z run -- 1.5-2.5", Euro holds serve. I doubt we'll see 5" out of this on a widespread scale (maybe some spot in the Poconos could squeeze a high total but I doubt it's the norm)...2-3 is a pretty reasonable top end call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 Just what we need. Another rainy pattern... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 Forum-dwellers up north can't get their yards to dry, but down here in Middletown, DE, the lawns are starting to brown. So, the rain's welcome news to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 The pattern is looking much more progressive...1-2" type event at worst...mainly Tuesday night...not really a "rainy" pattern per se but there could be afternoon pop up showers Thursday-Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 Forum-dwellers up north can't get their yards to dry, but down here in Middletown, DE, the lawns are starting to brown. So, the rain's welcome news to me Wouldn't call it dry here in NW Chesco, but gardens could definitely use some rain. We missed the big rains that fell over in Mont. & Bucks counties. 1.13" for the month so far, most of which fell in one storm. Only made it to 88.1 yesterday, while Philly topped out at 94. HX touched 90 briefly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 The pattern is looking much more progressive...1-2" type event at worst...mainly Tuesday night...not really a "rainy" pattern per se but there could be afternoon pop up showers Thursday-Saturday. Yard still needs drying out so I'll take the lowest number, thanks . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 Yard still needs drying out so I'll take the lowest number, thanks . Please send your rain here, we missed out on all of the hit/miss showers the past week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 looks like a widespread 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 I will take all the rain I can get in Wilmington as we didn't get much from that last round. Landscaping needs a good 1-2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 Please send your rain here, we missed out on all of the hit/miss showers the past week. Indeed. I had to give in and turn the sprinklers on this weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 Please send your rain here, we missed out on all of the hit/miss showers the past week. I hope you guys get hit this round. I can only use my weed wacker in places since its way too wet for mower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 Anyone want to make this an OBS thread? Stupid morning rain gonna screw up our rain dated softball tourney from last week... Grrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 Keep an eye on the next round for later on as pw values are increasing up and down I95 to near 2 with a value of 2 just to the south southwest about to move in. Additionally potential Precip placement and moisture convergence is now increasing in the area. Should be some good heavy bands in the next round. Can not rule out pounding on the roadways Especially I76 which has been Gridlock since the am rush hour Avoid it if you can Obama pays a visit later today. Finally the HRRR before it stopped working was putting out a good solid moderate to heavy band of rain this evening. The RPM on it's latest run is putting out a moderate to heavy band for say the Northeast extension/blue route on east with it intensifying for Jersey which seams to be a likely outcome as of now. Currently 68 here in NE Philly with moderate to heavy rain last 10-15 mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 up to .56 for the day here in dhizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 Keep an eye on the next round for later on as pw values are increasing up and down I95 to near 2 with a value of 2 just to the south southwest about to move in. Additionally potential Precip placement and moisture convergence is now increasing in the area. Should be some good heavy bands in the next round. Can not rule out pounding on the roadways Especially I76 which has been Gridlock since the am rush hour Avoid it if you can Obama pays a visit later today. Finally the HRRR before it stopped working was putting out a good solid moderate to heavy band of rain this evening. The RPM on it's latest run is putting out a moderate to heavy band for say the Northeast extension/blue route on east with it intensifying for Jersey which seams to be a likely outcome as of now. Currently 68 here in NE Philly with moderate to heavy rain last 10-15 mins. Good post, and thanks for the heads up about Obama. Definitely escaping the city ahead of that mess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 Thanks ya he is headed to the Franklin institute not sure where else but would be kind of funny to see I76 or i676 flood with Obama on it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 That line put west is doing its best to break apart... Let's see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 That line put west is doing its best to break apart... Let's see what happens. it will continue to croak, bottom images tells the story...good instability out there, while we are stable here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 Tom, I figured as much. It feels like October out there ! Model grade = d. At least on timing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted June 13, 2012 Share Posted June 13, 2012 Looks like the band from Lancaster on east is really starting to blossom from High Pw values along I95 I think some east of pa could squeeze 0.75 to an inch out of this as back building will continue till the pre frontal boundary clears. After that don't expect much if anything with Primary front as tombo said we do not have instability to sustain any thunderstorm convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott W Posted June 13, 2012 Share Posted June 13, 2012 Getting soaked here in West Chester. 1.77" last 24 hours Max rain rate: 3.69"/hr at 9:07pm Starting to let up a little, but could blossom any time again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 13, 2012 Share Posted June 13, 2012 the vineland area is getting owned right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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