Marion_NC_WX Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 With us approaching a change of seasons in the next 2 weeks, I wanna start a thread dedicated to models and what they're showing in the medium to long range. The biggest trend I have noticed this entire week is the development of a tropical system coming from the Western Caribbean and entering the Gulf Of Mexico in the time frame ranging from the 18th to 22nd of June...both the GFS and EURO this afternoon shows it around Day 10. What looks to occur over the next week is that a weak trough will settle over the Southeast US with it not moving much due to blocking in the Atlantic. That weakness will allow any development in the Caribbean to generally move northward. The details in all of this is still way too early to be determined but my general feeling is that we' could see an Eastern GOM threat sometime around the 20th...if I wanted to take an early stab at a target area it would be Tampa to Mobile. Don't see this getting much farther west than Mobile because of the lack of ridge over the Southeast. On the other hand, don't see it making any sharp turn towards South Florida, the weakness is not that pronounced. The next 10 days may be the start of a pretty good wet spell over the Southeast US as the winds begin to veer out of the South starting this upcoming week. That sets the stage for any possible tropical scenario to play out. Given how Beryl quickly spun up a couple weeks ago, I wouldn't rule out the first hurricane of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 Crazy. That would the third TC to affect our region already if that were to pan out. Its only June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 How about this recurrent blocking pattern? Is that something that will likely continue into July? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 How about this recurrent blocking pattern? Is that something that will likely continue into July? I hope it continues well into August......of next year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted June 9, 2012 Author Share Posted June 9, 2012 How about this recurrent blocking pattern? Is that something that will likely continue into July? I really don't have an answer to that right now...It does look like the -NAO will last at least through the next couple weeks. No real sign of a major shift to a +NAO through the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 Looks like the SE is in for a lot of rain and nice temps for this time of year in the next 7 days or so. Also ffrom what i gather is there will not be any major heat waves this month and the NAO looks to stay negative to neutral. This summer maybe very different from the last couple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spidyr2k Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 El Nino might return. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html This would be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 El Nino might return. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html This would be interesting. That would especially be true if it were to be a weak one and accompanied during DJF by both a +pdo and -nao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 That would especially be true if it were to be a weak one and accompanied during DJF by both a +pdo and -nao. Hawt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 I hope maybe the cycles are widening. A brutally hot summer, followed by awfully warm winter should lead to a cooler than normal summer and winter My tell is always the 4th of July, around here any way. If I don't hit 100 around the 4th, then I usually don't get more than one or two for the summer, if at all. Throw in some hurricanes tracking up through here, and it could be downright pleasant for the summer, lol. I remember in 94 it was a typical hot summer here until Alberto came wandering around. After that it was pretty nice the rest of the way by comparison. Or so it seemed. I know I'd welcome 20 inches of rain, crazy as that sounds. It was very cool..one of my favorite extreme weather highlights. A great extreme bookend to the blizzard. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted June 11, 2012 Author Share Posted June 11, 2012 The trend over the weekend on all the global models has been to reduce the activity across the Western Caribbean and Gulf around the 15th-20th. However the -NAO remains with a trough over the Eastern US...probably lending itself to more cooler than normal weather across the Southeast. I'm the type that wants my 3 months of heat and humidity and then move on to fall. I'm not sure what I want an entire summer of days sub 80-85 degrees with NW flow or wedge fronts keeping us well below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 lol 12z Nogaps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 The trend over the weekend on all the global models has been to reduce the activity across the Western Caribbean and Gulf around the 15th-20th. However the -NAO remains with a trough over the Eastern US...probably lending itself to more cooler than normal weather across the Southeast. I'm the type that wants my 3 months of heat and humidity and then move on to fall. I'm not sure what I want an entire summer of days sub 80-85 degrees with NW flow or wedge fronts keeping us well below normal. If I cant get good blocking in winter then I cant think of any other time I would rather have it than summertime. Here we average 12 days over 90 degree in June, so far we have had one and that was a 90. The next 7-10 days dont seem to hold any 90 degree heat and that would make June a pretty darn good month compared to the last two Junes with 20+ days over 90 and most of those were closer to 100. The real trick is getting this pattern to hold till mid Aug then flip to no blocking till mid Dec then have the blocking come back... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 We've had about 4 or 5 really good, distinct blocking events since April. And each has produced some pretty interesting weather nationwide, and I hate to say it, but m.b.y. especially has benefitted. It's too bad this type of upper flow didn't occur in the Winter, as the foothills and western piedmont of NC would have likely surpassed some of the 1960s and late 70's snows and cold with (probably) 2 one footers at back to back intervals. However, there's never any guarantee of course what happens in the future, but I've definitely noticed a trend toward high lat. blocking and a weakeness or lower than normal heights in part of the Southeast several times this Spring. The Winter next year is certainly looking interesting, but you never know where the strongest anomalies will be this far in advance, but can only guess using what the models are hinting at and typical Nino patterns, comined with other indices like PDO. So far, it actually looks like a pretty big Winter in general for the Southeast/Tenn. Valley, but that's a really broad brush. Just like how no one saw the incredible spike of North American warmth coming, anything can happen such as another fluke where one location is anomalous ( like Alaska was). Overall, my thoughts of how the NAO pattern is heading downward fits the models and long range cycles, so if we don't have another unusual spike like last year (remember, it could happen 2 years in a row), then I think the Southeast stretching to Ohio Valley looks pretty cold and stormy next Winter. The cold PDO winters plus a weak nino and likelihood of double blocking repeating at high latitudes so far looks pretty strong. At some point soon, we'll hit the equivalent of the 1960's and 1970's type of patterns, maybe even late 1800's, when it was a solidly different pattern from most our memories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 We've had about 4 or 5 really good, distinct blocking events since April. And each has produced some pretty interesting weather nationwide, and I hate to say it, but m.b.y. especially has benefitted. It's too bad this type of upper flow didn't occur in the Winter, as the foothills and western piedmont of NC would have likely surpassed some of the 1960s and late 70's snows and cold with (probably) 2 one footers at back to back intervals. However, there's never any guarantee of course what happens in the future, but I've definitely noticed a trend toward high lat. blocking and a weakeness or lower than normal heights in part of the Southeast several times this Spring. The Winter next year is certainly looking interesting, but you never know where the strongest anomalies will be this far in advance, but can only guess using what the models are hinting at and typical Nino patterns, comined with other indices like PDO. So far, it actually looks like a pretty big Winter in general for the Southeast/Tenn. Valley, but that's a really broad brush. Just like how no one saw the incredible spike of North American warmth coming, anything can happen such as another fluke where one location is anomalous ( like Alaska was). Overall, my thoughts of how the NAO pattern is heading downward fits the models and long range cycles, so if we don't have another unusual spike like last year (remember, it could happen 2 years in a row), then I think the Southeast stretching to Ohio Valley looks pretty cold and stormy next Winter. The cold PDO winters plus a weak nino and likelihood of double blocking repeating at high latitudes so far looks pretty strong. At some point soon, we'll hit the equivalent of the 1960's and 1970's type of patterns, maybe even late 1800's, when it was a solidly different pattern from most our memories. Great write up Robert. Looking forward to your website this fall/winter. Going to be buzzing. This winter already looks interesting with the whole upper air pattern having change to ridge out west to troughing in the east. Like you said the NAO and AO have calmed down a bit from the the extremes we ahve seen. I like the look of the summer so far. We have seen quite a bit of rain and belowe average temps day and night the past few weeks. So far no big heat wave in sight. Hopefully will will only get one that gets us but at least the next few weeks looks ideal in terms of temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 Any thoughts about the potential subtropical/tropical storm off the North Carolina coast? This looks to be in the short-medium range. Looks to happen in 48 hours. 00z Canadian 00z GFS 00z REG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 Any thoughts about the potential subtropical/tropical storm off the North Carolina coast? This looks to be in the short-medium range. Looks to happen in 48 hours. 00z Canadian 00z GFS 00z REG I guess since it forms over land and goes OTS it's not a concern to anyone. Looks to fizzle out on most models once OTS. WRF has it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted June 13, 2012 Share Posted June 13, 2012 We've had about 4 or 5 really good, distinct blocking events since April. And each has produced some pretty interesting weather nationwide, and I hate to say it, but m.b.y. especially has benefitted. It's too bad this type of upper flow didn't occur in the Winter, as the foothills and western piedmont of NC would have likely surpassed some of the 1960s and late 70's snows and cold with (probably) 2 one footers at back to back intervals. However, there's never any guarantee of course what happens in the future, but I've definitely noticed a trend toward high lat. blocking and a weakeness or lower than normal heights in part of the Southeast several times this Spring. The Winter next year is certainly looking interesting, but you never know where the strongest anomalies will be this far in advance, but can only guess using what the models are hinting at and typical Nino patterns, comined with other indices like PDO. So far, it actually looks like a pretty big Winter in general for the Southeast/Tenn. Valley, but that's a really broad brush. Just like how no one saw the incredible spike of North American warmth coming, anything can happen such as another fluke where one location is anomalous ( like Alaska was). Overall, my thoughts of how the NAO pattern is heading downward fits the models and long range cycles, so if we don't have another unusual spike like last year (remember, it could happen 2 years in a row), then I think the Southeast stretching to Ohio Valley looks pretty cold and stormy next Winter. The cold PDO winters plus a weak nino and likelihood of double blocking repeating at high latitudes so far looks pretty strong. At some point soon, we'll hit the equivalent of the 1960's and 1970's type of patterns, maybe even late 1800's, when it was a solidly different pattern from most our memories. I the bolded, and ignored the reminder of that horrible Alaskan vortex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Southeast Long-Range Spring 2012 Thread Posted by nchighcountrywx on 21 March 2012 - 02:21 PM in Southeastern States Warm April and May....'cool' June July August ? So far this one is panning out. Fortunate to have good sources of guidance that are much better studies of patterns that I am: (Also initial indications of winter look as good as one could expect this far out. One reliable source has said that 'next winter will be as cold to the extreme in the east as last winter was to the extreme with the warmth'. Looking forward to some good Nordic skiing before Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted June 20, 2012 Author Share Posted June 20, 2012 Today's global model runs especially the 12z EURO looking very interesting for the Eastern GOM next week...chances going up for some late month action as I noted at the start of the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 Big storm coming guys, unsure if it is a OTS track, right along the coast, or maybe inland, who knows? But given the period of inactivity, this is it! And it will be a good one, book it!!! Strong TS, maybe a borderline cane coming out of the Gulf, picked up by a <540 SE Ontario cutoff, remains to be seen... Not going to post all the graphics now, just check out the 12z EC ~120... PNA vs NAO, still a great deal of volatility, but one can see which way this is pointing... NAO rising in response to the spike, which is real. Unsure at this point where it is going, prefer a 998 cutting just east of the Apps as it gets lifted north by the sharp trough, regardless, signal is there, just need to work out the timing, and given the sharp response by all the guidance, heads up, game on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Big storm coming guys, unsure if it is a OTS track, right along the coast, or maybe inland, who knows? But given the period of inactivity, this is it! And it will be a good one, book it!!! Strong TS, maybe a borderline cane coming out of the Gulf, picked up by a <540 SE Ontario cutoff, remains to be seen... Not going to post all the graphics now, just check out the 12z EC ~120... PNA vs NAO, still a great deal of volatility, but one can see which way this is pointing... NAO rising in response to the spike, which is real. Unsure at this point where it is going, prefer a 998 cutting just east of the Apps as it gets lifted north by the sharp trough, regardless, signal is there, just need to work out the timing, and given the sharp response by all the guidance, heads up, game on! http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2012 A SHARP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTEND FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS CUBA TO THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH...AND SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BERG NNNN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 I'll be in Orange Beach, AL next week. Looks like I might be too far west, but its still real early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 12z ECMWF went west to Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Indeed. With the consistent -NAO in place, there will be multiple upper-level impulses that will swing southeastward across Canada into the eastern US. If this were a relatively small TC, I would ordinarily say these small impulses wouldn't be enough to pick up the system if it were in the central GOM. However, with a very large broad circulation such as this, it won't take much to steer this system further northward into a weakness. Thus, if the central ridge is just a hair weaker, 96L might move inland across the central Gulf coast rather than make its way further westward as the ECMWF, GGEM, and UKMET show. We saw a very similar synoptic evolution with Lee last year, where the ECMWF incorrectly forecasted the system to move further west and stall, when it made landfall in LA a good deal earlier than it had forecasted in the medium range. This is Phil's post from the 96L thread on the main board. Orange Beach & th N. Central gulf coast seem to be still in play after reading this. Great post btw! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 GFS has dewpoints in the low 40's next week here! wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted June 24, 2012 Author Share Posted June 24, 2012 Big time heat coming next weekend...once we get rid of Debby, that will be the big story here in the Southeast. 0z Numerical Data shows 100, 101 for GSP next Friday/Saturday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 What impacts will TS Debby have on the TN Valley, northern GA, southwest VA, and W NC? Will the heat dome just push out or does it have a chance to move north and bring rain or northwest flow where none was expected for next weekend, ie the heat wave may be blunted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted June 25, 2012 Author Share Posted June 25, 2012 What impacts will TS Debby have on the TN Valley, northern GA, southwest VA, and W NC? Will the heat dome just push out or does it have a chance to move north and bring rain or northwest flow where none was expected for next weekend, ie the heat wave may be blunted? Right now...Debby should have little affect on the interior southeast US including the Southern Appalachians...however, the stall scenario that Debby appears to be doing could make things a little more interesting depending on just how long she stalls and the direction she finally begins to move in a couple days. Could it be possible that Debby hangs around until end of the week and wait for the ridge to break down allowing an opening across the Southeast? You never know... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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