2012 Hottest Spring Ever in US

[PhillipS]

NOAA has announced that MAM 2012 was the hottest Spring ever recorded. From the announcement:

The nationally-averaged spring temperature of 57.1°F was 5.2°F above the long-term average. With the warmest March, third warmest April and second warmest May, Spring 2012 marked the

largest temperature departure from average of any season on record

for the contiguous United States

Record and near-record warmth dominated the eastern two-thirds of the nation during spring. Thirty-one states were record warm for the season and 11 additional states had spring temperatures ranking among their ten warmest. Only Oregon and Washington had spring temperatures near normal.

It will be interesting to see how the pseudo-skeptics and denialists try to spin this.

[WeatherRusty]

NOAA has announced that MAM 2012 was the hottest Spring ever recorded. From the announcement:

The nationally-averaged spring temperature of 57.1°F was 5.2°F above the long-term average. With the warmest March, third warmest April and second warmest May, Spring 2012 marked the

largest temperature departure from average of any season on record

for the contiguous United States

Record and near-record warmth dominated the eastern two-thirds of the nation during spring. Thirty-one states were record warm for the season and 11 additional states had spring temperatures ranking among their ten warmest. Only Oregon and Washington had spring temperatures near normal.

It will be interesting to see how the pseudo-skeptics and denialists try to spin this.

Two points which come immediately to mind.

This was more likely to occur at some point in recent time than 40 or 80 years ago when the global climate was cooler.

This could be further indication of average jet stream position migrating northward as is expected to happen in a warming world.

[FloridaJohn]

I thought this was an interesting graph:

[bluewave]

Dust Bowl Era heat records fall.

Statement as of 7:18 PM MDT on June 26, 2012

Records broken across the tri state area...

A record high temperature of 110 degrees was set at Goodland Kansas

today. This breaks the old record of 107 degrees set in 1971. This

is also the highest temperature ever recorded in the month of June,

breaking the old record of 109 degrees set June 18, 1936 and tied

June 24, 2012.

A record high temperature of 115 degrees was set at Hill City Kansas

today. This breaks the old record of 110 degrees set in 1980. This

is also the highest temperature ever recorded in the month of June,

breaking the old record of 114 degrees set June 30, 1933 and tied

June 24, 2012.

A record high temperature of 106 degrees was set at Burlington

Colorado today. This breaks the old record of 102 degrees set in

1990.

A record high temperature of 115 degrees was set at McCook Nebraska

today. This breaks the old record of 103 degrees set in 1998. This

is also the highest temperature ever recorded in the month of June,

breaking the old record of 112 degrees set June 5, 1933. In

addition this is the highest temperature ever recorded at this

station. The old record was 114 degrees set July 20, 1932.

An unofficial record high temperature of 109 degrees was set at Yuma

Colorado today. This breaks the old record of 103 degrees set in

1971. This is also the highest temperature ever recorded in the

month of June, breaking the old record of 108 degrees set June 19,

2012. This reading is from an unofficial weather station. Official

data are reported by National Weather Service cooperative observers

at the end of the month.

An unofficial record high temperature of 109 degrees was set at

Tribune Kansas today. This breaks the old record of 105 degrees set

in 1936. This reading is from an unofficial weather station.

Official data are reported by National Weather Service cooperative

observers at the end of the month.

An unofficial record high temperature of 112 degrees was set at

Colby Kansas today. This breaks the old record of 108 degrees set

in 1936. This is also the highest temperature ever recorded in the

month of June, breaking the old record of 111 degrees set June 24,

2012. This reading is from an unofficial weather station. Official

data are reported by National Weather Service cooperative observers

at the end of the month.

[PhillipS]

This heat is having consequences on agriculture. This is from the Associated Press yesterday:

Corn prices rise as Midwestern crops wilt in heat

By SANDY SHORE, AP Business Writer if (gbar.lPWF) { gbar.lPWF(function() { gapi.plusone.render('plusone-div', { "size" : "small", "count" : "true", "href" : "http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5g_DPb36et8r07WZp_bCh2egyywoQ?docId\x3db3672c8033264a0c94943da98456902c" }); }); } sandbarSharebox.registerMicrodataParser( window.top, document.getElementById('hostednews-article'));

The price of corn is climbing as a blistering heat wave wilts crops in parts of the Midwest.

Corn for December delivery rose 30 cents, or 5.1 percent, to finish at $6.24 per bushel. The price has jumped about 22 percent since the first of the month on speculation that the dry spell could lead to a smaller harvest.

Farmers got an early start on planting corn this year because of a mild winter. Hopes were high that the crop — forecast to be the most acreage since 1937 — would build up critically low supplies and satisfy strong export demand.

But above-normal temperatures, with little to no rainfall, have stressed the pollinating crops in recent days. Mike Zuzolo, president of Global Commodity Analytics & Consulting LLC, predicted that the yield will fall short of forecasts and supplies will remain tight heading into next summer if the heat continues without adequate rain. Traders have responded by driving up the price of corn this month. It's still more than a dollar less than the all-time high of $7.87 per bushel set in June 2011, when crops were threatened by heavy rains.

The difference this year is the concern about prospects for future demand given the European debt crisis and slowing economies in the U.S. and China, Zuzolo said. There also are fewer government programs around the world to stimulate growth than were a year ago. Many traders are waiting for a U.S. Agriculture Department report due Friday that will provide updated amounts of how many acres of crops have been planted.

Any pseudo-skeptic who claims that agriculture will thrive in under our changing global climate has never had to earn a living with his hands. Farming and ranching is iffy under ideal weather - throw in floods, hail, tornados, droughts and heat waves and agriculture loses its glamour pretty quickly.

[SVT450R]

So since warm records are being posted are cold records allowed also or will we be thrown to the curb and banished from the forum.

[PhillipS]

So since warm records are being posted are cold records allowed also or will we be thrown to the curb and banished from the forum.

Please, by all means tell us about any locale having record cold weather. It might provide a bit of psychic relief from the heat most of us are experiencing. Your best bet for finding record cold is probably the southern hemisphere - I think Brisbane, Australia is having a cold spell but don't know if they are breaking records.

[SVT450R]

Please, by all means tell us about any locale having record cold weather. It might provide a bit of psychic relief from the heat most of us are experiencing. Your best bet for finding record cold is probably the southern hemisphere - I think Brisbane, Australia is having a cold spell but don't know if they are breaking records.

Yea Australia has definitely been cool from what Ive noticed ill look into it. As for the homeland no doubt we are torching but in the end this warm streak will eventually come to an end sooner or later. Here on the east we are close to ending the month at average or possibly a slight below for first time in awhile depending on the next heat push in the next few days.

[cyclonebuster]

The Red Dots have it.............

[cyclonebuster]

The Red Dots have it for April also..

[cyclonebuster]

Lets not forget March either. Red Dots have it again and OFF the scale.....

[cyclonebuster]

Red Dots have it for Feb.. Also off the scale....

[Sundog]

I'd like people to find equally impressive cold records being broken and as numerous for every heat record broken. I'll let you guys go back a full ten years to search, that way one single year can't skew your findings.

[bluewave]

Statement as of 3:09 PM EDT on June 28, 2012

... Updated - record high temperatures set at Indianapolis...

The temperature has risen to 104 degrees at the Indianapolis

International Airport as of 301 PM EDT. This breaks the record high

temperature for the date as well as the record high temperature for

the month of June.

The previous record for June 28 was 101... set in 1934. The previous

record for the month of June was 102... last set June 25 1988.

In addition to setting records for the day and month... the 104

degrees is the warmest so early in the season for the Indianapolis

area.

The 104 degrees is also the warmest in nearly 58 years... since it

was last 104 degrees on July 14 1954.

With plenty of sunshine left in the day... the temperature may

continue to rise and push the records even higher. The all-time high

temperature record for the Indianapolis area is 106 degrees... last

set July 14 1936.

Weather records began in Indianapolis in 1871.

RECORD EVENT REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO

0428 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2012

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT ST. LOUIS...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 108 DEGREES HAS BEEN REACHED AT

ST. LOUIS TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 104 SET IN 1952.

THIS IS ALSO A NEW ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH

OF JUNE FOR ST. LOUIS...BREAKING THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 105 DEGREES

ON JUNE 25 1952 AND JUNE 19 1936.

IT IS POSSIBLE FOR THIS RECORD TO CHANGE THIS AFTERNOON...AS

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE.

[WeatherRusty]

So since warm records are being posted are cold records allowed also or will we be thrown to the curb and banished from the forum.

You will find plenty of cold records being made because of the relatively short period of instrumental recording. However, you will find that warm records are outpacing cold records two to one over the past decade. A clear sign of general warming.

[ben4vols]

You will find plenty of cold records being made because of the relatively short period of instrumental recording. However, you will find that warm records are outpacing cold records two to one over the past decade. A clear sign of general warming.

Once again, the same thing could have been said in and around 1940.

[WeatherRusty]

Once again, the same thing could have been said in and around 1940.

And the point is?

It was warming then and it is still warming with no scientifically valid reason to expect the warming to stop, except for temporary slow downs due to natural variability.

[ben4vols]

And the point is?

It was warming then and it is still warming with no scientifically valid reason to expect the warming to stop, except for temporary slow downs due to natural variability.

So the cool downs are natural variability and the warm-ups are GHG induced? Riiiiight. What was the forcing like in the 1910-1940 range?

[WeatherRusty]

So the cool downs are natural variability and the warm-ups are GHG induced? Riiiiight. What was the forcing like in the 1910-1940 range?

There has been no long term cool down over the past century. The net of all the ups and downs is a +0.8C warming.

Greenhouse warming has been taking place since CO2 was last at it's interglacial concentration of 280ppm sometime in the 1800s. Also the early part of the 20th century warming was aided by a slightly more active Sun. Also, the logarithmic temperature response to increasing CO2 ensures that for the same quantitative increase in content, forcing was increasing faster at near 300ppm than it is today near 400ppm.

[ORH_wxman]

There has been no long term cool down over the past century. The net of all the ups and downs is a +0.8C warming.

Greenhouse warming has been taking place since CO2 was last at it's interglacial concentration of 280ppm sometime in the 1800s. Also the early part of the 20th century warming was aided by a slightly more active Sun. Also, the logarithmic temperature response to increasing CO2 ensures that for the same quantitative increase in content, forcing was increasing faster at near 300ppm than it is today near 400ppm.

The mid/late 20th century sun was more active than the early 20th century.

[Snow_Miser]

Yes, there are numerous indicators that the activity of the sun has increased during the late 20th century, with one being a record low amount of GCRs in 1992 leading to a cumulative record low of gcr counts.

[donsutherland1]

FWIW, Dr. Jeff Masters of Wunderground.com had the following to say about a possible link to climate change for the excessive warmth:

Each of the 12 months from June 2011 through May 2012 ranked among the warmest third of their historical distribution for the first time in the 1895-present record. According to NCDC, the odds of this occurring randomly during any particular month are 1 in 531,441. Thus, we should only see one more 12-month period so warm between now and 46,298 AD--assuming the climate is staying the same as during the past 118 years. The unusual warmth was due, in part, to a La Niña event in the Pacific that altered jet stream patterns, keeping the polar jet stream much farther to the north than usual. However, it is highly unlikely that the extremity of the heat during the past 12 months could have occurred without a warming climate. Some critics have claimed that recent record warm temperatures measured in the U.S. are due to poor siting of a number of measurement stations. Even if true (and the best science we have says that these stations were actually reporting temperatures that were too cool), there is no way that measurement errors can account for the huge margin by which U.S. temperature records have been crushed during the past 12-month, 5-month, and 3-month periods.

[ORH_wxman]

Dr. Masters is definitely correct...the climate is warmer now than it was at the beginning of the U.S. Climate record.

Unfortunately much of the climate change debate is deeper than the actual temperatures being warmer now than 100+ years ago.

[SVT450R]

I'd like people to find equally impressive cold records being broken and as numerous for every heat record broken. I'll let you guys go back a full ten years to search, that way one single year can't skew your findings.

Did you already forget about this. ''Alaska had its coldest January on record, with a temperature 14.0°F (7.8°C) below the 1971–2000 average.'' Which ranks the coldest in 94 years of records. I would have to say that is impressive.

[Sundog]

Did you already forget about this. ''Alaska had its coldest January on record, with a temperature 14.0°F (7.8°C) below the 1971–2000 average.'' Which ranks the coldest in 94 years of records. I would have to say that is impressive.

I said for every heat record broken find me a cold record, and they would have to be equally impressive. You found one. Go back 30 years even and count which records get smashed time and time again. I think I already know what your findings will be.

[bluewave]

http://sciences.blogs.liberation.fr/files/10-ans-dextremes-climatiques.pdf

Monthly heat extremes document the most persistent and thus destructive39–41 heatwaves. Their number increases faster with cli- mate change than do daily extremes, because more-aggregated data has smaller variance and the number increases in proportion to the ratio of warming trend to variance9,36. The number of observed local monthly heat records around the globe is now more than three times as high as expected in a stationary climate13 (Fig. 2). This observed increase is consistent with that expected from a simple stochastic model including the warming trend9.

https://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/news/1036/record-high-temperatures-far-outpace-record-lows-across-us

BOULDER—Spurred by a warming climate, daily record high temperatures occurred twice as often as record lows over the last decade across the continental United States, new research shows. The ratio of record highs to lows is likely to increase dramatically in coming decades if emissions of greenhouse gases continue to climb.

[WeatherRusty]

The mid/late 20th century sun was more active than the early 20th century.

The change in radiative forcing involving solar variation occurred during the first half of the 20th century.

[Snow_Miser]

The change in radiative forcing involving solar variation occurred during the first half of the 20th century.

The sunspot number is a poor indicator of solar activity. When you account for all of the sun's geomagnetic activity (with the AA Index) the temperature is highly correlated to solar activity in all periods during the last 150 years.

Georgieva et. al 2005,

"We show that the index commonly used for quantifying long-term changes

in solar activity, the sunspot number, accounts for only one part of solar activity and using

this index leads to the underestimation of the role of solar activity in the global warming

in the recent decades. A more suitable index is the geomagnetic activity which reflects all

solar activity, and it is highly correlated to global temperature variations in the whole period

for which we have data.

[bluewave]

The sunspot number is a poor indicator of solar activity. When you account for all of the sun's geomagnetic activity (with the AA Index) the temperature is highly correlated to solar activity in all periods during the last 150 years.

Georgieva et. al 2005,

"We show that the index commonly used for quantifying long-term changes

in solar activity, the sunspot number, accounts for only one part of solar activity and using

this index leads to the underestimation of the role of solar activity in the global warming

in the recent decades. A more suitable index is the geomagnetic activity which reflects all

solar activity, and it is highly correlated to global temperature variations in the whole period

for which we have data.

The sun isn't responsible for the warming that we have been seeing.

http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/6/4/044022/fulltext/

This analysis confirms the strong influence of known factors on short-term variations in global temperature, including ENSO, volcanic aerosols and to a lesser degree solar variation. It also emphasizes that LT temperature is affected by these factors much more strongly than surface temperature.

Perhaps most important, it enables us to remove an estimate of their influence, thereby isolating the global warming signal. The resultant adjusted data show clearly, both visually and when subjected to statistical analysis, that the rate of global warming due to other factors (most likely these are exclusively anthropogenic) has been remarkably steady during the 32 years from 1979 through 2010. There is no indication of any slowdown or acceleration of global warming, beyond the variability induced by these known natural factors. Because the effects of volcanic eruptions and of ENSO are very short-term and that of solar variability very small (figure 7), none of these factors can be expected to exert a significant influence on the continuation of global warming over the coming decades. The close agreement between all five adjusted data sets suggests that it is meaningful to average them in order to produce a composite record of planetary warming. Annual averages of the result are shown in figure 8. This is the true global warming signal.

[Snow_Miser]

The sun isn't responsible for the warming that we have been seeing.

!

http://iopscience.io...44022/fulltext/

This analysis confirms the strong influence of known factors on short-term variations in global temperature, including ENSO, volcanic aerosols and to a lesser degree solar variation. It also emphasizes that LT temperature is affected by these factors much more strongly than surface temperature.

Perhaps most important, it enables us to remove an estimate of their influence, thereby isolating the global warming signal. The resultant adjusted data show clearly, both visually and when subjected to statistical analysis, that the rate of global warming due to other factors (most likely these are exclusively anthropogenic) has been remarkably steady during the 32 years from 1979 through 2010. There is no indication of any slowdown or acceleration of global warming, beyond the variability induced by these known natural factors. Because the effects of volcanic eruptions and of ENSO are very short-term and that of solar variability very small (figure 7), none of these factors can be expected to exert a significant influence on the continuation of global warming over the coming decades. The close agreement between all five adjusted data sets suggests that it is meaningful to average them in order to produce a composite record of planetary warming. Annual averages of the result are shown in figure 8. This is the true global warming signal.

That doesn't confirm anything about a lesser degree in solar variation. They assumed a lesser degree in solar variation by only including TSI when they took the solar forcing out of the Global temperature record.