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Central PA Thread - Summer 2012


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Ended up with a pretty decent downpour here. CTP has the portion of the line that went through Clearfield warned for now through at least Mifflin and Snyder Counties. Looks like our folks from H-burg and the Chicken Capital might get a piece of this after all. Also some storms trying to sneak towards PSUHazelton.

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I don't recall ever seeing such continuous lightning here as I did with the thunderstorm complex last night. Yet, none of it ever got that close so it made for a terrific light show!

Another interesting thunderstorm possibility seems to be shaping up for tomorrow and of course I'll be out camping in Bald Eagle...

As per the SPC:

post-1406-0-85442700-1340970194_thumb.pn

...OH VALLEY THROUGH MID ATLANTIC...

MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MEAN

UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY AREA WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE

GREAT LAKES AND NERN STATES SATURDAY. QUASISTATIONARY FRONT SHOULD

EXTEND FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. RICHER LOW

LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S WILL PERSIST IN

VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY. EXPANSIVE EML PLUME HAS ALREADY ADVECTED

THROUGH MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND

RESERVOIR OF STRONG INSTABILITY /3000+ MLCAPE/ WILL LIKELY EXIST

WHERE THE NRN FRINGE OF EML OVERLAPS THE MOIST AXIS. A FEW STORMS

MAY BE ONGOING EARLY SATURDAY WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG

BAROCLINIC ZONE. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS POTENTIAL WILL EXIST

FOR STORMS TO REDEVELOP ALONG RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...IN

VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND POSSIBLY LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND

INTENSIFY AS THEY ADVANCE SEWD. BELT OF STRONGER FLOW ASSOCIATED

WITH AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 40+ KT EFFECTIVE

SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING

SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WIND AND VERY LARGE HAIL. SOME

UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING STORM COVERAGE DUE TO POTENTIAL CAPPING

ISSUES ASSOCIATED WITH EML. AN UPGRADE TO HIGHER PROBABILITIES MAY

BE NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS ONCE THESE CONCERNS HAVE BEEN MITIGATED.

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Yea they actually are not dropping south as sharply as I thought they were going to but the cluster of storms is not overly big. They've occasionally had some nice hail signatures and echo tops have been 50k feet+ as well. The one cells trying to make a run at Potter but otherwise it looks like the best candidates for this so far are 2001kx, Jamie and PennMan.

One very strong gust of wind and lots of lightning. Although only .18 of rain.

Rather interested in tomorrow.

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One very strong gust of wind and lots of lightning. Although only .18 of rain.

Rather interested in tomorrow.

My gauge is broke so i'm not sure total rain, but huge puddles in the firehouse house parking lot. I actually said to my wife that i thought they had a fire or something and had washed the hose and gear. she lol'd and said i guess you didn't hear the storm?

Tomorroww afternoon could be interesting

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I don't recall ever seeing such continuous lightning here as I did with the thunderstorm complex last night. Yet, none of it ever got that close so it made for a terrific light show!

Another interesting thunderstorm possibility seems to be shaping up for tomorrow and of course I'll be out camping in Bald Eagle...

As per the SPC:

post-1406-0-85442700-1340970194_thumb.pn

...OH VALLEY THROUGH MID ATLANTIC...

MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MEAN

UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY AREA WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE

GREAT LAKES AND NERN STATES SATURDAY. QUASISTATIONARY FRONT SHOULD

EXTEND FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. RICHER LOW

LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S WILL PERSIST IN

VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY. EXPANSIVE EML PLUME HAS ALREADY ADVECTED

THROUGH MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND

RESERVOIR OF STRONG INSTABILITY /3000+ MLCAPE/ WILL LIKELY EXIST

WHERE THE NRN FRINGE OF EML OVERLAPS THE MOIST AXIS. A FEW STORMS

MAY BE ONGOING EARLY SATURDAY WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG

BAROCLINIC ZONE. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS POTENTIAL WILL EXIST

FOR STORMS TO REDEVELOP ALONG RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...IN

VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND POSSIBLY LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND

INTENSIFY AS THEY ADVANCE SEWD. BELT OF STRONGER FLOW ASSOCIATED

WITH AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 40+ KT EFFECTIVE

SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING

SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WIND AND VERY LARGE HAIL. SOME

UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING STORM COVERAGE DUE TO POTENTIAL CAPPING

ISSUES ASSOCIATED WITH EML. AN UPGRADE TO HIGHER PROBABILITIES MAY

BE NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS ONCE THESE CONCERNS HAVE BEEN MITIGATED.

CTP's response:

kristin-stewart-whatevs.jpg

SLAB OF VERY WARM AIR ALOFT WILL TEND TO CAP THINGS OFF...AND

WHILE THE MOST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LIKELY BE TO THE SOUTH AND

WEST OF CENTRAL PA FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THERE MAY BE TIMES

LIKE LATE SATURDAY WHERE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD FORM.

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CTP's response:

kristin-stewart-whatevs.jpg

SLAB OF VERY WARM AIR ALOFT WILL TEND TO CAP THINGS OFF...AND

WHILE THE MOST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LIKELY BE TO THE SOUTH AND

WEST OF CENTRAL PA FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THERE MAY BE TIMES

LIKE LATE SATURDAY WHERE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD FORM.

Lol, Martins long term from yesterday. Def could be an interesting day.. there's gonna be a ton of energy available with the heat and humidity. Add a bit of a cap to build all that up and you got the recipe for some big time storms.

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Lol, Martins long term from yesterday. Def could be an interesting day.. there's gonna be a ton of energy available with the heat and humidity. Add a bit of a cap to build all that up and you got the recipe for some big time storms.

They leave them up sometimes without updating, I've noticed.

Sort of interested in that MCS out in northern IN but I guess it's going to take a slight right turn and miss us.

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Woah.

That ended up being quite the line of thunderstorms the other night, I figured that by the time things got southeast that there'd be few or no severe issues. Straight line winds of 95mph is insane. The storms must've taken advantage of the really high downdraft CAPEs that were present. I figured they'd maintain well, but

http://www.fox43.com...0,7358644.story

well since i can see now we do have 2 trees down and a bunch of branches.

Yea when that line pushed through you and later got warned (and was the section eventually responsible for the estimated 95mph wind) base velocities were quite high.. on the order of 55-60kts.

We all really dodged a bullet last night with that line of thunderstorms since it made that bit of an arc southeast into WVA, MD, DC and VA. It was a classic derecho event. It would've been a major mess. The severe threat for the most part appears to be suppressed south of the region today, at least the threat of a repeat of the last couple evenings with organized MCS/derecho type systems. I wouldn't rule out scattered severe storms in PA though, especially in the far south.

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- 6-8F is not?

A 6-8° departure in either direction during the summer is impressive.

How are conditions in the chicken capital, besides feathery? My parents north of Myerstown said some of the corn was beginning to curl from lack of rain.

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A 6-8° departure in either direction during the summer is impressive.

How are conditions in the chicken capital, besides feathery? My parents north of Myerstown said some of the corn was beginning to curl from lack of rain.

Lets just say the heat hasn't helped with the smell.

We are getting a bit dry now. Nothing major...yet.

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