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Central PA Thread - Summer 2012


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WOW

PAC005-007-019-031-063-065-262015-

/O.CON.KPBZ.SV.W.0148.000000T0000Z-120726T2015Z/

ARMSTRONG PA-BEAVER PA-BUTLER PA-CLARION PA-INDIANA PA-JEFFERSON PA-

346 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM EDT

FOR JEFFERSON...INDIANA...CLARION...BUTLER AND ARMSTRONG COUNTIES IN

WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...AND BEAVER COUNTY IN WESTERN

PENNSYLVANIA...

AT 341 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO

INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING

DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH. THESE STORMS

WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF

BROCKWAY TO SAXONBURG...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

ZELIENOPLE... SUMMERVILLE... SAXONBURG...

SARVER... RIMERSBURG... REYNOLDSVILLE...

NEW BETHLEHEM... MUFF... LIMESTONE...

LERNERVILLE... KITTANNING... EVANS CITY...

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...

I-79 IN PENNSYLVANIA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 83 AND 90.

I-80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 73 AND 96.

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM. SEVERE

THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES. IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...MOVE

QUICKLY TO A PLACE OF SAFETY...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR

ROOM.

THIS STORM HAS PRODUCED WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE. SEEK SHELTER NOW

INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS!

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mesoscale analysis through spc is showing some interesting values right now for susq valley area... high for almost every condition... i dont believe it to be completely true but interesting nonetheless

The following image and discussion is based on this link: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17#

Today could be the day for S-Central PA to get rocked for one important reason...surface convergence. We all know that impressive severe weather parameters (CAPE, Lapse Rates, LI, etc.) mean nothing if you cannot get the parcels started upward. Below is a graphic from the EC Mesoanalysis sector (To access go Basic Sfc -> Moisture Convergence) which shows impressive surface moisture convergence (ie: areas favorable for lift). Values of 5 are rather common, even 10 if you have say a robust sea breeze front. But seeing the 15's pop up and especially when they coincide with terrain...that's special. Add to that the values have been centered over the same areas all day, someone could get rocked.

post-1389-0-51155900-1343332828_thumb.gi

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It's true, they don't just make up numbers. lol

lol I didnt mean the numbers were made up just phrased what I meant completely wrong... I meant them being this high right now doesnt guarantee 100% that is what will happen... other factors need to come into play as well

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Holy crap..

ADJUSTED MODERATE RISK TO ALONG AND AHEAD OF INITIAL QLCS IN SWRN NY

TO ERN OH AND UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING BACK IN WRN OH.

ALTHOUGH SEVERE WIND GUSTS HAVE YET TO BE MEASURED BY ANY ASOS/AWOS

OBSERVATIONS...50-55 KT EWD MOVEMENT HAS BEEN NOTED WITH THIS

INITIAL LINE AND 18Z PIT/OKX RAOBS ARE CERTAINLY SUPPORTIVE OF FAST

ELY PROPAGATION. CONSIDERED UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK BUT RELATIVELY

MODEST MID/HIGH-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SAMPLED IN REGIONAL 18Z RAOBS

SUGGEST MODERATE RISK APPEARS MOST APPROPRIATE ATTM.

NEVERTHELESS...NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF DAMAGING WINDS IS

LIKELY AS THE NUMBER OF BOWING SEGMENTS INCREASE WITH AN ASSOCIATED

THREAT OF ISOLATED INTENSE WIND DAMAGE AND BRIEF TORNADOES.

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The Elmira storm has had it TOR warning extended.

TORNADO WARNING

NYC015-107-PAC015-262045-

/O.NEW.KBGM.TO.W.0003.120726T2000Z-120726T2045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY

400 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHEASTERN CHEMUNG COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...

SOUTHERN TIOGA COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...

NORTHEASTERN BRADFORD COUNTY IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 445 PM EDT.

* AT 356 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 8 MILES

NORTHWEST OF CHEMUNG...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

* THE STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

CHEMUNG AND LOCKWOOD BY 405 PM EDT...

LITCHFIELD...WAVERLY AND BARTON BY 410 PM EDT...

NICHOLS AND LITCHFIELD BY 415 PM EDT...

WINDHAM...TIOGA CENTER AND LOUNSBERRY BY 420 PM EDT...

APALACHIN BY 425 PM EDT...

TIOGA TERRACE BY 430 PM EDT...

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY

411 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

0358 PM TORNADO ELMIRA 42.09N 76.81W

07/26/2012 CHEMUNG NY EMERGENCY MNGR

NUMEROUS TREES DOWN... NUMEROUS ROOFS OFF BUILDINGS...

PEOPLE TRAPPED IN VEHICLES

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