djr5001 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Some watches later maybe near PDS material. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Sun is out here fwiw..burning clouds off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Sun is out here fwiw..burning clouds off. Same here. Satellite shows that trend continuing. That's the main thing I thought might cause this to bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 CTP's MDT forecast is nothing more than a typical summer afternoon writeup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Sun is out here fwiw..burning clouds off. Sun is starting to break through here as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 nws afd update doesn't seem so impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 nws afd update doesn't seem so impressed. They wont jump the gun until more certain that things will come together. No sense in causing alarm by discussing severe potential before certainty over what will actually occur. I am sure they will update often over the course of the afternoon as things develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 nws afd update doesn't seem so impressed. This is what they changed. It's hard to tell if they are less impressed. -- Changed Discussion -- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AS A WARM FRONT SURGES JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE COMMONWEALTH THIS AFTERNOON. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH INSTABILITY...RICH LEVEL MOISTURE... AND MODERATELY STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS TO PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. -- End Changed Discussion -- && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion -- REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS DYING QUASI-MCS QUICKLY EXITING OUR EASTERN ZONES...ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONG 925-850 MB MOISTURE FLUX. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RE-ADJUST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND DEEPENING MIXING WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT A GUSTY WEST SOUTHWEST WIND OF 15-25 KTS DOWN TO THE SFC AS CLEARING SPREADS EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA FOR THE LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HOURS. NEAR TERM MODELS INDICATE THE BRUNT OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSRA SPREADING SE ACROSS THE REGION /IN ONE OR MORE BROKEN LINES/ LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SFC COLD FRONT EDGES SLOWLY SERWD FROM THE GLAKES. STRONGEST...WSWRLY 0-1KM SHEAR OF 20-25 KTS BECOMES FOCUSED ACROSS THE NW MTNS BETWEEN 19-22Z...AND THEN JUMPS TO OUR EASTERN ZONES EARLY THIS EVENING. IT/S THESE AREAS THAT WILL LIKELY SEE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS /WITH EITHER PREVIOUS CONVECTION OR THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LAKE ERIE BREEZE/...AND SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF THE MORE INTENSE...POSSIBLY ROTATING/DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 CTP's MDT forecast is nothing more than a typical summer afternoon writeup. ? This Afternoon: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some storms could be severe, with large hail, damaging winds, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. Partly sunny and hot, with a high near 99. Heat index values as high as 103. Southwest wind 9 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 3am. Some storms could be severe, with large hail and damaging winds. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 77. West wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 This is what wunderground is pulling. ThursdayPartly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm and a chance of rain. High of 95F with a heat index of 102F. Winds from the SW at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50%. Thursday Night Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm and a chance of rain. Low of 77F. Winds from the West at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 This is what wunderground is pulling. You probably have the "Best Forecast" feature on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Latest PBZ AFD text: && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... THE MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF A SQUALL LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND, HAIL, HEAVY RAIN, AND LOTS OF LIGHTNING. SPC CONTINUES TO PROJECT A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE UPPER OHIO VALLEY, WITH WIDESPREAD DAMAGING THUNDERSTORMS THE MOST PROBABLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HAZARD. HPC HAS JOINED IN WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. RAIN AMOUNTS OF MORE THAN 1.5 INCHES IN LESS THAN 3 HOURS CAN CAUSE FLASH FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS AND WHERE DRAINAGE IS POOR. CONCUR WITH THESE FORECASTS BASED ON RECENT SREF INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES. RECENT SATELLITE DATA SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF THICKER CLOUDS FROM KMFD TO KCVG. ALSO A BAND OF CUMULUS IS DEVELOPING FROM KHLG TO KLEX. THE FORMER IS MORE LIKELY WHERE THE SQUALL LINE WILL FORM, BUT THE LATTER HAS TO BE MONITORED ALSO. RECENT HRRR MODEL OUTPUT, ALONG WITH 00Z WRF-NMM MODEL OUTPUT, SHOWS THE FOLLOWING TIMING OF SQUALL LINE ONSET. FRANKLIN PA TO ZANESVILLE OH/ KFKL-KZZV/: 2-4PM. DUBOIS-PITTSBURGH PA-WHEELING WV/ KDUJ-KPIT-KHLG/: 3-5PM. INDIANA-MORGANTOWN WV/ KIDI-KMGW/: 4-6PM. OAKLAND MD/ K2G4/: 6 PM. CONTINUE TO EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 You probably have the "Best Forecast" feature on Wow. I didn't even know that was a feature now ... thanks. N/M, then! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Can you guys settle down. NWS CTP has strong wording and were in the world does it say threat is lessing? Here is my new map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Full sun out now..very few clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 just throwing this out there... since we are starting to get up there in # of posts on this thread... would it be worth it to start fresh for the events later? This is the most active we have been here in quite some time and if things do pan out it would be nice to have everything together and not split by needed to start new later on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 just throwing this out there... since we are starting to get up there in # of posts on this thread... would it be worth it to start fresh for the events later? This is the most active we have been here in quite some time and if things do pan out it would be nice to have everything together and not split by needed to start new later on... We should be alright...still almost 300 posts until we hit 1,000, and we can always continue past that in this thread until the event is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Still socked in...beginning to doubt any threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 This is the video of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1600 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 AM CDT THU JUL 26 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN INDIANA...OH...NRN KY...NRN PANHANDLE OF WV...WRN/NRN PA...WRN NY. CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 261626Z - 261830Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...RAPID DEVELOPMENT...INTENSIFICATION AND UPSCALE GROWTH OF TSTMS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 20Z OVER WRN/NRN PARTS OF THIS DISCUSSION AREA...INVOF ANY OF SEVERAL BOUNDARIES DESCRIBED BELOW. DAMAGING GUSTS ARE PRIMARY THREAT...THOUGH OTHER SVR MODES ARE POSSIBLE. DISCUSSION...15Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THERMAL GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...AND CORRESPONDING TO DIFFUSE ERN FRINGE OF THICKER CLOUD COVER ON VIS IMAGERY. THIS ZONE WAS LOCATED FROM SRN IL AND SWRN INDIANA NEWD OVER W-CENTRAL/NRN OH...THEN ENEWD OVER NWRN PA...WHERE IT INTERSECTED WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD OVER S-CENTRAL PA. WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN PA THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING ZONE WILL MOVE LITTLE AS CLOUDS ERODE WITH EWD EXTENT BUT CONTINUE TO ADVECT OVER AREA FROM W. VIS IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS MCV MOVING ENEWD ABOUT 35 KT OVER W-CENTRAL IL...ON TRACK TO REACH NRN INDIANA AROUND 22Z...AND PRECEDED BY MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENTS TO DEEP-LAYER FLOW AND MIDLEVEL ASCENT. GRAVITY WAVE WAS EVIDENT MOVING SEWD OVER SWRN PA...OH/WV BORDER AND CENTRAL KY...BEHIND WHICH STRONGEST SFC HEATING IS OCCURRING FROM NERN OH TO WRN KY. IN LOW LEVELS...CINH EVIDENT IN 12Z PBZ/ILN RAOBS IS BEING REMOVED QUICKLY BY STG DIABATIC HEATING AND BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING...BELOW PLUME OF ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER AIR THAT CONTRIBUTES STEEP LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WITH SFC DEW POINTS COMMONLY 70S F...NET RESULT WILL BE PRECONVECTIVE MLCAPE STRENGTHENING TO 3500-5000 J/KG RANGE OVER BROAD SWATH OF WARM SECTOR...BETWEEN WARM FRONT AND DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING ZONE. SUCH STG-EXTREME BUOYANCY ATOP WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS...AMIDST NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL/WLY-WSWLY DEEP-LAYER WINDS...SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR MORE FORWARD-PROPAGATIONAL TSTM CLUSTERS WITH ORGANIZED/AGGREGATE COLD POOLS ENHANCING SVR WIND RISK. THIS MAY OCCUR WITH DEVELOPMENT NOW OVER LE AS IT ENCOUNTERS DESTABILIZING AIR MASS NEAR WARM FRONT AND SRN-SHORE LAKE BREEZE...AS WELL AS SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT INVOF DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING ZONE AND AHEAD OF MCV OVER PORTIONS INDIANA/OH. EFFECTIVE SHEAR INCREASES WITH NEWD EXTENT TOWARD AND OVER WARM FRONT...VALUES REACHING 40-50 KT IN NWRN PA WHERE EFFECTIVE SRH ALSO IS MAXIMIZED. THIS SUGGESTS RELATIVE MAX IN SUPERCELL/TORNADO RISK ALSO MAY EXIST INVOF WARM FRONT...SHIFTING EWD/NEWD WITH THAT BOUNDARY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Our chase team meeting in Pittston township. We will be joined by my colleague Michelle Rotella from wnep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 DISCUSSION...15Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THERMAL GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...AND CORRESPONDING TO DIFFUSE ERN FRINGE OF THICKER CLOUD COVER ON VIS IMAGERY. THIS ZONE WAS LOCATED FROM SRN IL AND SWRN INDIANA NEWD OVER W-CENTRAL/NRN OH...THEN ENEWD OVER NWRN PA...WHERE IT INTERSECTED WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD OVER S-CENTRAL PA. WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN PA THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING ZONE WILL MOVE LITTLE AS CLOUDS ERODE WITH EWD EXTENT BUT CONTINUE TO ADVECT OVER AREA FROM W. VIS IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS MCV MOVING ENEWD ABOUT 35 KT OVER W-CENTRAL IL...ON TRACK TO REACH NRN INDIANA AROUND 22Z...AND PRECEDED BY MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENTS TO DEEP-LAYER FLOW AND MIDLEVEL ASCENT. GRAVITY WAVE WAS EVIDENT MOVING SEWD OVER SWRN PA...OH/WV BORDER AND CENTRAL KY...BEHIND WHICH STRONGEST SFC HEATING IS OCCURRING FROM NERN OH TO WRN KY. gravity waves are one of those phenomenons that are really cool to see show up on satellite... look interesting and good to see when looking for severe weather :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Temp. is shooting up...and very humid! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Been completely cloud-free in HBG now for a good hour. Gravity waves are indeed really awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 78F with a DP of 71. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST...WHILE A COLD FRONT TRAILS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW NUMEROUS CLUSTERS AND BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS TO ERUPT BY MID AFTERNOON FROM INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND FARTHER SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM...THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT WILL BE FOUND FROM INDIANA AND OHIO ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHERN NEW YORK...AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND CONNECTICUT. A MODERATE RISK AREA COVERS THESE REGIONS...WHERE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED. A THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANTLY SEVERE WINDS WILL ALSO EXIST. ADDITIONALLY...ONE OR TWO TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO SOUTHWESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...CONNECTICUT...AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. Also 88 here dew point 77 Heat index 99 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 CTP's new HWO THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL REACH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY THIS EVENING. ONE OR MORE...FAST MOVING LINES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL...SUPER-CELL THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...PRECEDING THE MORE EXTENSIVE LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Full sunshine humid at the Pocono rest area on the turnpike. Psu needs to chill!!!! Strong wsw winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Line erupting in Ohio watch for western pa real soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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