Santa Clause Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Well guys, looks like MCS over Michigan stays well north of PA(was forecasted to anyway). We'll see what happens tmrw!! Could be interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 On a serious note, NWS isn't really talking in specifics about tomorrow. Guess I can't blame them though, it's tough forecasting severe weather. Yea, they did update the near term recently to talk about the first chance of storms in the early dawn/daylight hours. Earlier today some models had suggested a severe line coming through western and central PA during that time, but the new NAM and HRRR runs has suggested that the convection stays mainly north but still suggests some scattered thunderstorms trying to form. This is with the initial surge of the warm front. Per mesoanalysis the major influx of CAPE and moisture is just starting to reach western PA. Pretty likely the next short term update will include some detail on trying to hash out the plethora of threats we have later tomorrow... most likely coming after SPC updates their D1 map soon, and I'm really curious to see it. I personally think it is a tough forecast just from the aspect of that pretty much all severe options are on the table tomorrow so to speak... from discrete supercells that could produce some very large hail and tornadoes, to clusters/bows, and of course the threat of an organized MCS/full blown derecho. Regardless of storm type, the enhanced high wind threat is pretty real. I'm not sure what to think about any tornado threat quite yet. The NAM moves a core of decent EHI values (at least 2-3) from western PA thru northern PA as the afternoon wears on. Those are pretty high values, and coupled with the other parameters in place I would be wary of discrete cells, as they could drop a tornado. SPC might paint western/northern PA in as much as a 10% risk IMO, which is pretty decent for our area but technically a high end slight risk in regards to that particular threat. Otherwise, I expect SPC to maintain their overall moderate risk as well as their hatched area for enhanced threats, specifically for wind... but I don't think damaging hail should be forgotten about either and i just covered how I felt about the tornado threat. Don't think we'll see the rare high risk unless we get something organized rolling towards us tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Ya I did say it was a joke in the next part. I see now, I just don't want to see the day it's spread around the weenies and other wxboards/twitter/fb go into a feeding frenzy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I see now, I just don't want to see the day it's spread around the weenies and other wxboards/twitter/fb go into a feeding frenzy. They get enough of that from henry margusity lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Yea, they did update the near term recently to talk about the first chance of storms in the early dawn/daylight hours. Earlier today some models had suggested a severe line coming through western and central PA during that time, but the new NAM and HRRR runs has suggested that the convection stays mainly north but still suggests some scattered thunderstorms trying to form. This is with the initial surge of the warm front. Per mesoanalysis the major influx of CAPE and moisture is just starting to reach western PA. Pretty likely the next short term update will include some detail on trying to hash out the plethora of threats we have later tomorrow... most likely coming after SPC updates their D1 map soon, and I'm really curious to see it. I personally think it is a tough forecast just from the aspect of that pretty much all severe options are on the table tomorrow so to speak... from discrete supercells that could produce some very large hail and tornadoes, to clusters/bows, and of course the threat of an organized MCS/full blown derecho. Regardless of storm type, the enhanced high wind threat is pretty real. I'm not sure what to think about any tornado threat quite yet. The NAM moves a core of decent EHI values (at least 2-3) from western PA thru northern PA as the afternoon wears on. Those are pretty high values, and coupled with the other parameters in place I would be wary of discrete cells, as they could drop a tornado. SPC might paint western/northern PA in as much as a 10% risk IMO, which is pretty decent for our area but technically a high end slight risk in regards to that particular threat. Otherwise, I expect SPC to maintain their overall moderate risk as well as their hatched area for enhanced threats, specifically for wind... but I don't think damaging hail should be forgotten about either and i just covered how I felt about the tornado threat. Don't think we'll see the rare high risk unless we get something organized rolling towards us tomorrow. I think 10% tornado, 30% hatched hail and 45% hatched winds in 130 update. As max values. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1597 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1215 AM CDT THU JUL 26 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NORTHERN OH/NORTHWEST PA/WESTERN NY CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 260515Z - 260715Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...AT LEAST ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND/SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP INTO PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHERN OH AND /MORE SO/ NORTHWEST PA AND WESTERN NY OVERNIGHT. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. DISCUSSION...A QUASI-LINEAR MCS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP/EXPAND AND GRADUALLY ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS LOWER MI/SOUTHERN ONTARIO AS OF 05Z. THIS ACTIVITY SEEMS LIKELY TO PERSIST EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT WITHIN A BELT OF MODERATELY STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW...POTENTIALLY INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN OH/NORTHWEST PA/WESTERN NY...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS 07Z-08Z NEAR THE LOWER LAKES. PRECEDING THE MCS...IT IS YET RELATIVELY DRY/STABLE AS PER THE 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM BUFFALO/PITTSBURGH. HOWEVER...A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO STEADILY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST WITH AID OF A 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET PER REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS ACROSS INDIANA/OH/MI...WITH THE CONTINUED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ADVECTION OF A POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AS SAMPLED BY THE 00Z WILMINGTON OH OBSERVED RAOB /5000+ J PER KG MLCAPE/. WITH GREATER ACCESS TO WARM/MOIST ADVECTION JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...AT LEAST THE WEST-SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE APPROACHING MCS MAY POSE A DAMAGING WIND/PERHAPS SEVERE HAIL RISK OVERNIGHT INTO PORTIONS OF OH/PA/NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Look out Erie! When do you think nws will update? I should probably go to bed lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Look out Erie! When do you think nws will update? I should probably go to bed lol. The complex is right on track to hit us if it can stay together. ARW shows it well. Then round two dear lord Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Wow...good grief. Could be a long day tmrw. Especially if round one knocks some customer's power out with the heat expected! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 That line is diving SE. South be to western pa around 4 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Yeah it's moving pretty good. Big question if it holds together though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Yeah it's moving pretty good. Big question if it holds together though. If not severe at least should have good lightning. Last frames was like SSE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 New day one real soon. I am freaking out lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Probably another mod. risk with 5% tor.....25 hail 35 wind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Probably another mod. risk with 5% tor.....25 hail 35 wind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Probably another mod. risk with 5% tor.....25 hail 35 wind? No such numbers as 25% or 35% lol. Likely 10%/30%/45% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Lol....Wmsptwx strikes again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Wow, Eastern you we're right on! Guessing TOR is either 5 or 10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Wow, Eastern you we're right on! Guessing TOR is either 5 or 10? 5% and it it more for NY with the warm front. Damaging winds are are main issue tomorrow. I bet we get a watch for Winds in excess of 70 mph maybe 80 and 2" hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Wow, Eastern you we're right on! Guessing TOR is either 5 or 10? 2... unless you were in NE PA up towards NY, where it was 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Meh...5 isn't too impressive either. Wind should be impressive though as Eastern said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Update generally was what I was expecting from categorical and specific threats. Whiffed a bit on my expectation with tornado threat, with a 2% in western/north central and a 5% in northeastern PA/NY southern tier. Ultimately any enhanced tornado threat will likely evolve where we can get some separate supercells cranked with a combo of the max helicity and daytime heating. But yea, any way you slice it, we're looking at a pretty busy day tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Looking at my model, pretty consistent with the strong potential for significant winds possible across the OH-PA-NY regions. Anywhere from 70-85mph convective gusts possible. I am tracking highest potential based on indices for any type of tornadoes around the Jamestown,NY area. Seeing values around 17-18Z of LI's around -7, SFC CAPE aroudn 2,700 J/KG, 0-3KM ML CAPE around 164 J/KG, and EHI's right around 2. Posted matrix on update.htm link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 There are some random cells about to enter western pa from OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Some of those cells up to like 60-65 DBZ nearing PITT. Lots of lightning. Warm front action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Warning on the cell now nearing pitt. Golf ball sized hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 247 AM EDT THU JUL 26 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OHIO... HARRISON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OHIO... JEFFERSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OHIO... NORTH CENTRAL OHIO COUNTY IN NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA... HANCOCK COUNTY IN NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA... BROOKE COUNTY IN NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA... * UNTIL 330 AM EDT * AT 244 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM KILGORE TO FREEPORT...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 PA is going to get clubbed in the next few hours. Be on the look out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Some of those cells up to like 60-65 DBZ nearing PITT. Lots of lightning. Warm front action. Yea these storms were predicted pretty well by the HRRR and in most of the recent runs they were the main action that tried to cross central PA. Still see hints of the mcs dropping se in the latest run as well but largely dissipated as it drops into the area. We'll have to see what we have left once it crosses the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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