StormDude81 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Not every day you see two ensembles packages (SREFs & GEFS) with highly anomalous readings. I took a quick look at the proposed evolution of the event as it relates to local terrain and it appears as though the low and mid level wind field are aligned quite nicely to enhance and maintain robust updrafts across the Allegheny Plateau and western Appalachian Mts. Would not be surprised to see some large hail reports (AOA 1.5") in western NY & PA, especially if the storms stay discrete for the first 1 - 2 hours. As for the derecho potential, we're going to have to wait for that to unfold, but it stands to reason that such a robust jet stream at 850mb is a plus for those who are rooting for such a complex to develop. Enjoy kids, I'm in Cali for the next few days so stay safe and take plenty of pictures! Yep i agree, two rounds of severe with some supercells over East OH, West PA/NY during the late evening and overnight period, then a break during the morning into afternoon then a 2nd more intense round is likely Tonight i see large hail (1.00 to 1.75 inch, perhaps some larger hail stones in better organized storms), and perhaps a few tornadoes overnight along the warm front over Western PA due to localized shear enhanced due to the terrain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Saw a discussion yesterday that it seems as if they are over forecasting derecho potential now since they missed on the big one that did occur... Derecho has definitely been the buzz word of choice this summer when it comes to severe weather. We'll see what happens tomorrow but all the pieces will be in place for one to develop, among other storm types. It appears we have a dual threat tomorrow, the chance of a cluster/line of storms in the early-mid morning hours Thursday followed by the later afternoon/evening severe threat. The latter threat is likely to be the much bigger deal. The reasoning for a few hours of inactivity is because of the subsidence and/or cloud debris behind whatever forms and move through overnight. But once it clears out, assuming its cloudy anywhere to begin with... we are going to have a very hot day and will have more than sufficient dynamics (shear, forcing, moisture influx) to take advantage of what will be big time CAPEs and easily develop severe weather. This is a pretty big deal as it stands right now, SPCs D2 moderate risk includes most of us not only in a probalistic 45% chance of severe weather, but also the black hatched zone (>10% of significant severe weather with 25 miles of a point). And by sig severe weather we're talking the enhanced threats of >65knot winds, >2" hail, and >F2 tornado. SPC has likely placed the hatched zone in anticipation of a possible MCS/derecho development, and thus the sig severe threat that is most possible is the winds in excess of 65 knots (75mph). However, the other storm modes such as discrete supercells are more likely to develop tomorrow derecho or not and with the big time CAPEs and decent shear/helicity to work with I could see a few of the very large hail reports happening somewhere as well in addition to the wind threat. Tornadoes are not off the table either but the specific zone where we might have an enhanced threat of those is going to be dependent on the placement of the warm frontal boundary and the placement of that could be determined by the possible initial overnight development of storms. That also could affect placement of any organized severe lines, etc. So still some uncertainty of exactly where things could setup, and obviously MCS and derecho events are very hard to pinpoint/predict in advance... but I'd certainly suggest keeping a close eye on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 "I gotz some good news, boss. I think I gots that there radar fixed. It's supposed to be spinnin' around like a top, right?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Not every day you see two ensembles packages (SREFs & GEFS) with highly anomalous readings. I took a quick look at the proposed evolution of the event as it relates to local terrain and it appears as though the low and mid level wind field are aligned quite nicely to enhance and maintain robust updrafts across the Allegheny Plateau and western Appalachian Mts. Would not be surprised to see some large hail reports (AOA 1.5") in western NY & PA, especially if the storms stay discrete for the first 1 - 2 hours. As for the derecho potential, we're going to have to wait for that to unfold, but it stands to reason that such a robust jet stream at 850mb is a plus for those who are rooting for such a complex to develop. Enjoy kids, I'm in Cali for the next few days so stay safe and take plenty of pictures! ArcGIS conference? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Whaaa?? I'd say that is pretty accurate/responsible wording for the threat tomorrow. The morning will have ongoing clusters of storms...then a break in the early afternoon, and finally "severe storms firing" in the afternoon. Its not an apocalyptic forecast (and it should not be) but its definitely not quiet all day. Even your area could get in on the goods. I highly doubt it down here. Northern and western I hold firm on right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 The area from Huntington and north and west are the real ones to be on guard. NAM really ripping that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 If only long ranges were set in stone. Massive 1024 high of cP air comes blasting into the NE and Mid Atlantic on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Anyone else not feeling these events where there's more hype than models support?? I think we get some T-Storms and heavy rain, but not seeing a big deal through much of PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 ArcGIS conference? Yes, are you out here as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormDude81 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 HRRR Model has a decent line of storms moving through NE OH/ W PA during the overnight hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Anyone else not feeling these events where there's more hype than models support?? I think we get some T-Storms and heavy rain, but not seeing a big deal through much of PA. Why do you think that? Models are supporting them, been talked about in this thread and in the NWS discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Anyone else not feeling these events where there's more hype than models support?? I think we get some T-Storms and heavy rain, but not seeing a big deal through much of PA. It's going to be a big deal and there is model support. Just depends where you are located. SC/SE PA not much everywhere else look out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Anyone else not feeling these events where there's more hype than models support?? I think we get some T-Storms and heavy rain, but not seeing a big deal through much of PA. It's going to be a big deal and there is model support. Just depends where you are located. SC/SE PA not much everywhere else look out. I thought maybe they backed off or something on the 18Z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I thought maybe they backed off or something on the 18Z runs. No lol you know he is always like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Folks to our north in NY near Buffalo SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 815 PM EDT WED JUL 25 2012 NYZ001>004-010>014-019>021-085-260715- NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING- LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER... NEWARK...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA... JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 815 PM EDT WED JUL 25 2012 ...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT... A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND PUSH ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF NEW YORK AFTER 2 AM. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PART OF AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE...MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS THAT WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...LEADING TO A HEIGHTENED THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...ALONG WITH VERY FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. THERE IS EVEN THE RISK OF AN ACTUAL DERECHO MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...WHICH COULD EASILY PRODUCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS... WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...PARTICULARLY IN URBAN AREAS. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR THE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES BETWEEN 2 AM AND 5 AM EDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Wow...holy derecho. Does this have any model back up??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Wow...holy derecho. Does this have any model back up??? Yes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Yes, are you out here as well? Nah, I just have a registered student version of ArcGIS on my computer and got some occasional emails about it. Probably should've gotten out a little and went though. I have a GIS minor and in the two summers since i've graduated the only job lead i've had that led to an actual interview was actually a GIS job. I'm running about 1/40 in NWS referrals and 0/3 in Accuwx openings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T9uuPza41Uw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Dear GOD! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Well...I'm afraid to ask how does the NAM looks guys?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormDude81 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Well...I'm afraid to ask how does the NAM looks guys?? It actually appears more impressive then previous runs for most of the moderate risk area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Well...I'm afraid to ask how does the NAM looks guys?? Why do you keep asking? It is bad as in you will be wiped out. Hunker down. Enjoy SKT_NAM__KIPT.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I depend on interpretations by pretty much you and Mag Eastern..lol. I look at it, but only precip. and temps mean anything to me. Just seeing if there were any differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I depend on interpretations by pretty much you and Mag Eastern..lol. I look at it, but only precip. and temps mean anything to me. Just seeing if there were any differences. Look at the link I posted in my previous post. You have insane numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I depend on interpretations by pretty much you and Mag Eastern..lol. I look at it, but only precip. and temps mean anything to me. Just seeing if there were any differences. Same...I don't want to read into too much. One thing, the HRRR radar is kind of annoying in that it can be way wrong but I keep going to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 CCX is putting out Level 2 products, time will only tell if it stays up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 CCX is putting out Level 2 products, time will only tell if it stays up. I bet they had like 100 people working on it today to make sure it is ready for tomorrow lol. Hopefully a 30 mph gust doesn't blow it over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 CCX is putting out Level 2 products, time will only tell if it stays up. Hopefully haha, cuz if there was ever a day we needed it... it'd be tomorrow. If it was out the north central would be in a pretty big hole between pit and bgm radars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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