EasternUSWX Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 wow...what to make of that? Means western pa tomorrow is going to get crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Man, I'd be making a road trip if I didn't work tmrw. Does derecho dissolve or go north of true CPA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Man, I'd be making a road trip if I didn't work tmrw. Does derecho dissolve or go north of true CPA? Heat ADV is up now. Also the man part will swipe northern pa. Another region may form somewhere else with all the cells that form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 OH WTF SPC DAM IT!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Well you essentially nailed that forecast...other than the MDT risk being shifted slightly further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Wow All I can do is shake my head.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 sorry..on my phone can't read it...is it a big development? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Well you nailed that forecast... Is it storming yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 sorry..on my phone can't read it...is it a big development? Large D2 MDT risk... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Is it storming yet? I mean your outline for the MDT risk/etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I mean your outline for the MDT risk/etc. I see. I just don't understand why the MDT is so far SE. I just don't buy it yet. Maybe later runs will come around but all guidance shows storms falling part around Huntington pa overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 wow...idk about this though. major fail ahead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Will make a new map tonight after 0Z data is in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 So CTP has 0% chance of storms for me tomorrow and SPC has me in 45% severe. hmmm. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 lol ctp hasn't been so hot this year either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 lol ctp hasn't been so hot this year either. I've noticed. haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I can't wait to see how tomorrow unfolds too. We always get burned when "significant" severe is forecasted. These derecho situations are very difficult to pin down...look back to the June derecho when the area destroyed was only in a "see text" region at 0600z that day! I am willing to bet someone in the Moderate area will get rocked...but we won't know exactly where until after noon tomorrow. I just hope CTP radar is up and running by then! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Think we at least have a shot at a thunderstorm?? lol. I miss a good boomer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 If this Derecho forms this could be a high risk day. Second only to May 31,1998 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I can't wait to see how tomorrow unfolds too. We always get burned when "significant" severe is forecasted. These derecho situations are very difficult to pin down...look back to the June derecho when the area destroyed was only in a "see text" region at 0600z that day! I am willing to bet someone in the Moderate area will get rocked...but we won't know exactly where until after noon tomorrow. I just hope CTP radar is up and running by then! Probably not. And if it is it will get blown over tomorrow anyways. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Welp... SPC HAS RECENTLY UPGRADED THE PREVIOUS SLIGHT RISK...TO A MDT RISK OF SVR TSRA VERY LATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY. CLUSTERS OF DISCRETE...SUPERCELL STRUCTURES OVER THE NW MTNS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS THURSDAY...MAY EVOLVE INTO A LARGER MCS/MCC ACROSS CENTRAL PENN WITH SWATHS OF WIND DAMAGE /AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING/ BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT ACROSS CENTRAL PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS. 09Z SREF AND 12 GEFS BOTH HIGHLIGHT THE EXTREMELY STRONG FORCING TRIGGERING THIS INITIAL ROUND OF TSRA...AS A +3-5 ST DEVIATION WESTERLY 850 MB JET PUSHES ACROSS PENN AND NEW YORK BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...THE SREF/S 850 MB MOISTURE FLUX IS SO TO SAY..OFF THE CHARTS DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED PERIOD OF INTEREST THURSDAY MORNING...6 OR MORE STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. A BRIEF...FEW HOUR PERIOD OF MINIMAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR BETWEEN 14-17Z AS COMPENSATING SUBSIDENCE OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS...BEFORE AREAS OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSRA FIRE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Looks like morn and aftn showers/storms and a quiet midday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Looks like morn and aftn showers/storms and a quiet midday? More like quiet all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 lol really? this whole thing has me confused...Ill just stay skeptical haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 More like quiet all day. Whaaa?? I'd say that is pretty accurate/responsible wording for the threat tomorrow. The morning will have ongoing clusters of storms...then a break in the early afternoon, and finally "severe storms firing" in the afternoon. Its not an apocalyptic forecast (and it should not be) but its definitely not quiet all day. Even your area could get in on the goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I can't wait to see how tomorrow unfolds too. We always get burned when "significant" severe is forecasted. These derecho situations are very difficult to pin down...look back to the June derecho when the area destroyed was only in a "see text" region at 0600z that day! I am willing to bet someone in the Moderate area will get rocked...but we won't know exactly where until after noon tomorrow. I just hope CTP radar is up and running by then! Saw a discussion yesterday that it seems as if they are over forecasting derecho potential now since they missed on the big one that did occur... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormDude81 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Well, the HRRR model has a cluster of supercells forming in Ohio and moving into Western PA during the overnight hours, i think an overnight tornado threat could exist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I doubt we deal with tornadic stuff...maybe small hail/gusty winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Welp... SPC HAS RECENTLY UPGRADED THE PREVIOUS SLIGHT RISK...TO A MDT RISK OF SVR TSRA VERY LATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY. CLUSTERS OF DISCRETE...SUPERCELL STRUCTURES OVER THE NW MTNS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS THURSDAY...MAY EVOLVE INTO A LARGER MCS/MCC ACROSS CENTRAL PENN WITH SWATHS OF WIND DAMAGE /AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING/ BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT ACROSS CENTRAL PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS. 09Z SREF AND 12 GEFS BOTH HIGHLIGHT THE EXTREMELY STRONG FORCING TRIGGERING THIS INITIAL ROUND OF TSRA...AS A +3-5 ST DEVIATION WESTERLY 850 MB JET PUSHES ACROSS PENN AND NEW YORK BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...THE SREF/S 850 MB MOISTURE FLUX IS SO TO SAY..OFF THE CHARTS DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED PERIOD OF INTEREST THURSDAY MORNING...6 OR MORE STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. A BRIEF...FEW HOUR PERIOD OF MINIMAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR BETWEEN 14-17Z AS COMPENSATING SUBSIDENCE OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS...BEFORE AREAS OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSRA FIRE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. Not every day you see two ensembles packages (SREFs & GEFS) with highly anomalous readings. I took a quick look at the proposed evolution of the event as it relates to local terrain and it appears as though the low and mid level wind field are aligned quite nicely to enhance and maintain robust updrafts across the Allegheny Plateau and western Appalachian Mts. Would not be surprised to see some large hail reports (AOA 1.5") in western NY & PA, especially if the storms stay discrete for the first 1 - 2 hours. As for the derecho potential, we're going to have to wait for that to unfold, but it stands to reason that such a robust jet stream at 850mb is a plus for those who are rooting for such a complex to develop. Enjoy kids, I'm in Cali for the next few days so stay safe and take plenty of pictures! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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