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Central PA Thread - Summer 2012


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I can't wait to see how tomorrow unfolds too. We always get burned when "significant" severe is forecasted. These derecho situations are very difficult to pin down...look back to the June derecho when the area destroyed was only in a "see text" region at 0600z that day!

I am willing to bet someone in the Moderate area will get rocked...but we won't know exactly where until after noon tomorrow.

I just hope CTP radar is up and running by then!

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I can't wait to see how tomorrow unfolds too. We always get burned when "significant" severe is forecasted. These derecho situations are very difficult to pin down...look back to the June derecho when the area destroyed was only in a "see text" region at 0600z that day!

I am willing to bet someone in the Moderate area will get rocked...but we won't know exactly where until after noon tomorrow.

I just hope CTP radar is up and running by then!

Probably not. And if it is it will get blown over tomorrow anyways. lol

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Welp...

SPC HAS RECENTLY UPGRADED THE PREVIOUS SLIGHT RISK...TO A MDT RISK

OF SVR TSRA VERY LATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

CLUSTERS OF DISCRETE...SUPERCELL STRUCTURES OVER THE NW MTNS DURING

THE PREDAWN HOURS THURSDAY...MAY EVOLVE INTO A LARGER MCS/MCC ACROSS

CENTRAL PENN WITH SWATHS OF WIND DAMAGE /AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING/

BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT ACROSS CENTRAL PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY

DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS. 09Z SREF AND 12 GEFS BOTH HIGHLIGHT

THE EXTREMELY STRONG FORCING TRIGGERING THIS INITIAL ROUND OF

TSRA...AS A +3-5 ST DEVIATION WESTERLY 850 MB JET PUSHES ACROSS PENN

AND NEW YORK BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z THURSDAY.

IN ADDITION...THE SREF/S 850 MB MOISTURE FLUX IS SO TO SAY..OFF THE

CHARTS DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED PERIOD OF INTEREST THURSDAY

MORNING...6 OR MORE STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

A BRIEF...FEW HOUR PERIOD OF MINIMAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR

BETWEEN 14-17Z AS COMPENSATING SUBSIDENCE OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE

MCS...BEFORE AREAS OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSRA FIRE DURING THE MID TO

LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

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More like quiet all day. :P

Whaaa?? I'd say that is pretty accurate/responsible wording for the threat tomorrow. The morning will have ongoing clusters of storms...then a break in the early afternoon, and finally "severe storms firing" in the afternoon. Its not an apocalyptic forecast (and it should not be) but its definitely not quiet all day. Even your area could get in on the goods.

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I can't wait to see how tomorrow unfolds too. We always get burned when "significant" severe is forecasted. These derecho situations are very difficult to pin down...look back to the June derecho when the area destroyed was only in a "see text" region at 0600z that day!

I am willing to bet someone in the Moderate area will get rocked...but we won't know exactly where until after noon tomorrow.

I just hope CTP radar is up and running by then!

Saw a discussion yesterday that it seems as if they are over forecasting derecho potential now since they missed on the big one that did occur...

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Welp...

SPC HAS RECENTLY UPGRADED THE PREVIOUS SLIGHT RISK...TO A MDT RISK

OF SVR TSRA VERY LATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

CLUSTERS OF DISCRETE...SUPERCELL STRUCTURES OVER THE NW MTNS DURING

THE PREDAWN HOURS THURSDAY...MAY EVOLVE INTO A LARGER MCS/MCC ACROSS

CENTRAL PENN WITH SWATHS OF WIND DAMAGE /AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING/

BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT ACROSS CENTRAL PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY

DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS. 09Z SREF AND 12 GEFS BOTH HIGHLIGHT

THE EXTREMELY STRONG FORCING TRIGGERING THIS INITIAL ROUND OF

TSRA...AS A +3-5 ST DEVIATION WESTERLY 850 MB JET PUSHES ACROSS PENN

AND NEW YORK BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z THURSDAY.

IN ADDITION...THE SREF/S 850 MB MOISTURE FLUX IS SO TO SAY..OFF THE

CHARTS DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED PERIOD OF INTEREST THURSDAY

MORNING...6 OR MORE STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

A BRIEF...FEW HOUR PERIOD OF MINIMAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR

BETWEEN 14-17Z AS COMPENSATING SUBSIDENCE OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE

MCS...BEFORE AREAS OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSRA FIRE DURING THE MID TO

LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

Not every day you see two ensembles packages (SREFs & GEFS) with highly anomalous readings. I took a quick look at the proposed evolution of the event as it relates to local terrain and it appears as though the low and mid level wind field are aligned quite nicely to enhance and maintain robust updrafts across the Allegheny Plateau and western Appalachian Mts. Would not be surprised to see some large hail reports (AOA 1.5") in western NY & PA, especially if the storms stay discrete for the first 1 - 2 hours.

As for the derecho potential, we're going to have to wait for that to unfold, but it stands to reason that such a robust jet stream at 850mb is a plus for those who are rooting for such a complex to develop. Enjoy kids, I'm in Cali for the next few days so stay safe and take plenty of pictures!

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