EasternUSWX Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 LOL, actually Thursday looks really good across the board all across PA Not really. Maybe Northern and Western. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormDude81 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Not really. Maybe Northern and Western. Yes Northern and Western looks best for widespread severe weather, but some threat of severe will linger into the Southern Areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Wonder what happened. I don't know but this might be a better option for tracking storms around here Thursday, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 A pretty significant severe threat for a D2 map (high end slight risk for most of PA). Disco also threatens possibility of upgrade to moderate categorical risk for western/nrn PA into central NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 It feels really nice out this morning, almost fall-ish. That'll change in about 14 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 WOW, impressed by 30 percent put up by SPC. However, in the AFD State College basically says MEHHHH about tomorrow lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 WOW, impressed by 30 percent put up by SPC. However, in the AFD State College basically says MEHHHH about tomorrow lol. SPC has been terrible lately. I don't see much for anyone really southeast of state college. Nw of there ya. CTP and LWX have isolated storms. SPC is talking numerous. I don't buy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 anyone think we hit 100 tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 anyone think we hit 100 tomorrow? Seems like a good shot. IDK why CTP always says heat indices around 100, the air temp will be 100, heat indices tomorrow will be like 105-108. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 SPC has been terrible lately. I don't see much for anyone really southeast of state college. Nw of there ya. CTP and LWX have isolated storms. SPC is talking numerous. I don't buy it. it's a running joke with a friend of mine and myself... when SPC goes 30% or higher for us... we get sunny skies some of the good severe storms/confirmed tornadoes we have had around here the past few years have come on days with low to no forecast % for severe... seems like more often than not when we get put into a high % that it ends up a bust. I believe it was back in the spring, for example, we were under 30-45% for hail/severe wind and i think 5% for tornado... well the low tracked further north than was modeled and we barely saw any thunderstorm development with CAPE 3500-4000 and other severe parameters in favorable ranges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I'm terrible at analysis, but my perception is SPC is pretty weak with anything east of the Mississippi. Wset of that however they are usually spot-on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 it's a running joke with a friend of mine and myself... when SPC goes 30% or higher for us... we get sunny skies some of the good severe storms/confirmed tornadoes we have had around here the past few years have come on days with low to no forecast % for severe... seems like more often than not when we get put into a high % that it ends up a bust. I believe it was back in the spring, for example, we were under 30-45% for hail/severe wind and i think 5% for tornado... well the low tracked further north than was modeled and we barely saw any thunderstorm development with CAPE 3500-4000 and other severe parameters in favorable ranges. Ya 12Z has anything N and W of State College. SE of there I am thinking that there won't be much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Seems like a good shot. IDK why CTP always says heat indices around 100, the air temp will be 100, heat indices tomorrow will be like 105-108. Tomorrow might be a good day to stay home, hang by the pool and drink beer. it's a running joke with a friend of mine and myself... when SPC goes 30% or higher for us... we get sunny skies some of the good severe storms/confirmed tornadoes we have had around here the past few years have come on days with low to no forecast % for severe... seems like more often than not when we get put into a high % that it ends up a bust. I believe it was back in the spring, for example, we were under 30-45% for hail/severe wind and i think 5% for tornado... well the low tracked further north than was modeled and we barely saw any thunderstorm development with CAPE 3500-4000 and other severe parameters in favorable ranges. we joke about that too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Tomorrow might be a good day to stay home, hang by the pool and drink beer. That's what i'll be doing. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Anyone in the precip zone is in trouble tomorrow anyone southeast of their should not see much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Looks like we may be free and clear Zac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Looks like we may be free and clear Zac. What else is new. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I can't wait for our typical clap of thunder and 2 minute rainshower tmrw!!!! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I'm terrible at analysis, but my perception is SPC is pretty weak with anything east of the Mississippi. Wset of that however they are usually spot-on. I politely disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 What else is new. lol i actually don't want a storm tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I can't wait for our typical clap of thunder and 2 minute rainshower tmrw!!!! lol I think you are in the rocking zone this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 eastern how high are dews going tmrw? can't believe no heat adv. for southern tier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 eastern how high are dews going tmrw? can't believe no heat adv. for southern tier? 70-74. CTP struggles with heat issuance. I had a heat index of 108 one day and there was no adv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 If SPC puts me in a MDT risk I won't be happy. Should be a see text. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 lol i think they might though. what is main threat cellular or organized line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Here is my thinking on tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 lol i think they might though. what is main threat cellular or organized line? Supercells and multi cell clusters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Here is my thinking on tomorrow. Forgot to add slight over to NYC. My bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 the 09z SREF “Derecho Parameter” is showing fairly large values ( >3 ) over western Pennsylvania tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 wow...what to make of that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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