hckyplayer8 Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Ah the worse of it has drifted just a mile or two South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Looks like some CB, are trying to get going in Eastern Ohio, looks like show might be ready to start up for E OH/ West Central PA Pretty sure we are SOL. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Long range continues to look great for more average to below average temps. Both the GFS and the Euro now show a HBPV with trough extending through the NE and occasionally dipping into the MidAtl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Wow...mega fail today lol. Nothing even close to developing!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Must've had some wind in midtown Harrisburg, my gutter extenders were blown several feet away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormDude81 Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 This is looking like a complete bust, i think they will take us out of the slight risk, unless if the storms fire up in the evening, when the dynamics will be best, even if the storms fire up between 9PM and Midnight, they could be severe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormDude81 Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Tonight's threat seems to be a bust a bit of a cap still in place, today's had some positives, but also negatives, tonight might have some isolated supercells form during the overnight hours, still a Slight Risk out for all of PA, with 15% Hail/Wind and 2% Tornado, and tomorrow appears to be a threat of a large MCS/ potentially a derecho to effect southern areas of Pennsylvania, but on Thursday seems to be a bit of a more dangerous situation setting up, the 18z GFS is scary for NY/PA areas, 993mb low over Toronto during the afternoon moving into NY State, decent low level shear of 30 to 50kts, we need to pan out details, but this set up on Thursday is more interesting then today's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormDude81 Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Appears to be some storms forming in NW PA/ and Western NY, these things will drop in Pennsylvania with additional development possible in NW PA/E OH, if any these storms tap some ridiculous vales of 12 to 28 supercell composite and significant tornado effective layer has values of 1 to 2, with values of 3 to 6 in SW PA, if anything fires in this area, it will likely spin despite being late at night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Wow..it really is firing. Do you think NPA has a shot at some rumbles of thunder and lightning? You're pretty good at this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormDude81 Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Wow..it really is firing. Do you think NPA has a shot at some rumbles of thunder and lightning? You're pretty good at this! Yes, pretty good at being sarcastic, jk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Whatever happened to the CCX radar certainly must've been pretty significant given the length of time it's been out. .EQUIPMENT... -- Changed Discussion -- KCCX RADAR IS STILL OFFLINE AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH THE NIGHT AND PERHAPS MUCH OF THE DAY. RESTORATION TIME IS UNKNOWN. ELECTRONIC ENGINEERS ARE BEING CONSULTED AND LOCAL STAFF ARE WORKING WITH THEM TO FIND A RESOLUTION AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. -- End Changed Discussion -- Some of the severe parameters are certainly quite elevated tonight, 0-1km EHI values of 2-3+ in western PA are pretty high for around here thanks to decent helicity and some CAPE. They'd be off the charts if it were the afternoon hours. I've also noted that it has become quite breezy here. If anything actually managed to pop up in western/central PA the rest of the overnight into this morning i'd def be watching for rotation. Fortunately the time of the day is a major factor against notable storm initiation. There is pretty decent capping with CIN values ranging from -100 in the west to less than -400 in the lower Sus Valley. So obviously the best chance for something (if anything) early this morning is going to be in the west, and it would be very isolated. Which is likely a good thing for the central folks, The State College area and surrounding counties wouldn't get good looks from PBZ or LWX radars if we were to be having significant storm development. The severe thunderstorm threat shifts to the far south and largely south of PA later this morning as the front pushes south. Thursday could be intriguing, new SPC day 3 already has most of PA in a slight risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Living in south central PA makes me sick. lol. I can't wait to move either to western or eastern pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Whatever happened to the CCX radar certainly must've been pretty significant given the length of time it's been out. Some of the severe parameters are certainly quite elevated tonight, 0-1km EHI values of 2-3+ in western PA are pretty high for around here thanks to decent helicity and some CAPE. They'd be off the charts if it were the afternoon hours. I've also noted that it has become quite breezy here. If anything actually managed to pop up in western/central PA the rest of the overnight into this morning i'd def be watching for rotation. Fortunately the time of the day is a major factor against notable storm initiation. There is pretty decent capping with CIN values ranging from -100 in the west to less than -400 in the lower Sus Valley. So obviously the best chance for something (if anything) early this morning is going to be in the west, and it would be very isolated. Which is likely a good thing for the central folks, The State College area and surrounding counties wouldn't get good looks from PBZ or LWX radars if we were to be having significant storm development. The severe thunderstorm threat shifts to the far south and largely south of PA later this morning as the front pushes south. Thursday could be intriguing, new SPC day 3 already has most of PA in a slight risk. I highly doubt anything Thursday except near the NY boarder. Edit, nevermind, I seen the 12Z and change my mind. Now down to maybe State college area will get smacked and over to pitt. Could be a moderate risk somewhere in NY to northern pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 i'm not sure exactly what we got yesterday afternoon rainfall total, but the softball field we went to hit at yesterday, looked like Erie and it wasn't that way the night before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1565 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1048 AM CDT TUE JUL 24 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OH...WRN AND SRN PA...NRN VA...MD...ERN WV CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 241548Z - 241715Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SOON. DISCUSSION...DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH POCKETS OF HEATING AND MIXING. EARLY CELLS CROSSING FROM SWRN PA INTO MD DID NOT PERSIST...BUT CIN WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS TO FORM WHICH COULD TRACK FOR LONG DISTANCES ONCE DEVELOPED. THE CELL OVER FAR WRN MD APPEARS TO BE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH A HAIL THREAT. OTHER CU OF INTEREST WERE ACROSS NERN OH NEAR THE COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL CELLS MAY FORM HERE AND TRACK SEWD WITH A HAIL AND WIND THREAT. ..JEWELL/HART.. 07/24/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 i'm not sure exactly what we got yesterday afternoon rainfall total, but the softball field we went to hit at yesterday, looked like Erie and it wasn't that way the night before. I measured just over .5" at my house from yesterday's storm... over 3" of rain measured in past week so far after almost a quarter of an inch the previous month!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 If we do get storms today, god help us with no KCCX again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Watch is up. Radar is out. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 That cluster swinginy through the OV looks nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Some storms starting to fire up around my area, just got a couple brief downpours. Best bet for folks in the watch area today is to use PBZ (Pittsburgh) and LWX (Sterling, VA) radars. PBZ is catching the start of the storms pretty good in the central counties and LWX will pick up on them as they move south and east as well as other developments. The downside of course is that either adjacent radar is only seeing 6-10k feet and up at best The WGAL radar should be a good one too for the Sus valley gang.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Suns out bright and raining! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Another 90+ day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Another bust for severe. Unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormDude81 Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Late Tomorrow into Overnight looks interesting for W PA/OH, Thursday looks interesting for most of the Mid Atlantic, seems like tornado threat looks possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 LOL...Thursday will probably be a bust. Hearing NY State has best shot at anything....NWS is saying just a few Scatt'd T-Storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 CFS continues to broadcast below to well below average temps for the second half of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 .EQUIPMENT... KCCX RADAR WILL BE OFFLINE UFN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormDude81 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 LOL...Thursday will probably be a bust. Hearing NY State has best shot at anything....NWS is saying just a few Scatt'd T-Storms. LOL, actually Thursday looks really good across the board all across PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Wonder what happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 That is nice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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