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Central PA Thread - Summer 2012


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This is looking like a complete bust, i think they will take us out of the slight risk, unless if the storms fire up in the evening, when the dynamics will be best, even if the storms fire up between 9PM and Midnight, they could be severe

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Tonight's threat seems to be a bust a bit of a cap still in place, today's had some positives, but also negatives, tonight might have some isolated supercells form during the overnight hours, still a Slight Risk out for all of PA, with 15% Hail/Wind and 2% Tornado, and tomorrow appears to be a threat of a large MCS/ potentially a derecho to effect southern areas of Pennsylvania, but on Thursday seems to be a bit of a more dangerous situation setting up, the 18z GFS is scary for NY/PA areas, 993mb low over Toronto during the afternoon moving into NY State, decent low level shear of 30 to 50kts, we need to pan out details, but this set up on Thursday is more interesting then today's

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Appears to be some storms forming in NW PA/ and Western NY, these things will drop in Pennsylvania with additional development possible in NW PA/E OH, if any these storms tap some ridiculous vales of 12 to 28 supercell composite and significant tornado effective layer has values of 1 to 2, with values of 3 to 6 in SW PA, if anything fires in this area, it will likely spin despite being late at night

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Whatever happened to the CCX radar certainly must've been pretty significant given the length of time it's been out.

.EQUIPMENT...

-- Changed Discussion --

KCCX RADAR IS STILL OFFLINE AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH THE NIGHT AND PERHAPS MUCH OF THE DAY. RESTORATION TIME IS UNKNOWN. ELECTRONIC ENGINEERS ARE BEING CONSULTED AND LOCAL STAFF ARE WORKING WITH THEM TO FIND A RESOLUTION AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.

-- End Changed Discussion --

Some of the severe parameters are certainly quite elevated tonight, 0-1km EHI values of 2-3+ in western PA are pretty high for around here thanks to decent helicity and some CAPE. They'd be off the charts if it were the afternoon hours. I've also noted that it has become quite breezy here. If anything actually managed to pop up in western/central PA the rest of the overnight into this morning i'd def be watching for rotation. Fortunately the time of the day is a major factor against notable storm initiation. There is pretty decent capping with CIN values ranging from -100 in the west to less than -400 in the lower Sus Valley. So obviously the best chance for something (if anything) early this morning is going to be in the west, and it would be very isolated. Which is likely a good thing for the central folks, The State College area and surrounding counties wouldn't get good looks from PBZ or LWX radars if we were to be having significant storm development.

The severe thunderstorm threat shifts to the far south and largely south of PA later this morning as the front pushes south. Thursday could be intriguing, new SPC day 3 already has most of PA in a slight risk.

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Whatever happened to the CCX radar certainly must've been pretty significant given the length of time it's been out.

Some of the severe parameters are certainly quite elevated tonight, 0-1km EHI values of 2-3+ in western PA are pretty high for around here thanks to decent helicity and some CAPE. They'd be off the charts if it were the afternoon hours. I've also noted that it has become quite breezy here. If anything actually managed to pop up in western/central PA the rest of the overnight into this morning i'd def be watching for rotation. Fortunately the time of the day is a major factor against notable storm initiation. There is pretty decent capping with CIN values ranging from -100 in the west to less than -400 in the lower Sus Valley. So obviously the best chance for something (if anything) early this morning is going to be in the west, and it would be very isolated. Which is likely a good thing for the central folks, The State College area and surrounding counties wouldn't get good looks from PBZ or LWX radars if we were to be having significant storm development.

The severe thunderstorm threat shifts to the far south and largely south of PA later this morning as the front pushes south. Thursday could be intriguing, new SPC day 3 already has most of PA in a slight risk.

I highly doubt anything Thursday except near the NY boarder.

Edit, nevermind, I seen the 12Z and change my mind. Now down to maybe State college area will get smacked and over to pitt. Could be a moderate risk somewhere in NY to northern pa.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1565

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1048 AM CDT TUE JUL 24 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OH...WRN AND SRN PA...NRN VA...MD...ERN WV

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 241548Z - 241715Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY

AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SOON.

DISCUSSION...DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH

POCKETS OF HEATING AND MIXING. EARLY CELLS CROSSING FROM SWRN PA

INTO MD DID NOT PERSIST...BUT CIN WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE...AND

DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS TO FORM WHICH COULD

TRACK FOR LONG DISTANCES ONCE DEVELOPED. THE CELL OVER FAR WRN MD

APPEARS TO BE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH A HAIL THREAT.

OTHER CU OF INTEREST WERE ACROSS NERN OH NEAR THE COLD FRONT.

ADDITIONAL CELLS MAY FORM HERE AND TRACK SEWD WITH A HAIL AND WIND

THREAT.

..JEWELL/HART.. 07/24/2012

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i'm not sure exactly what we got yesterday afternoon rainfall total, but the softball field we went to hit at yesterday, looked like Erie and it wasn't that way the night before.

I measured just over .5" at my house from yesterday's storm... over 3" of rain measured in past week so far after almost a quarter of an inch the previous month!!

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Some storms starting to fire up around my area, just got a couple brief downpours. Best bet for folks in the watch area today is to use PBZ (Pittsburgh) and LWX (Sterling, VA) radars. PBZ is catching the start of the storms pretty good in the central counties and LWX will pick up on them as they move south and east as well as other developments. The downside of course is that either adjacent radar is only seeing 6-10k feet and up at best The WGAL radar should be a good one too for the Sus valley gang..

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