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Central PA Thread - Summer 2012


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...VT/NY/ERN AND CENTRAL PA...

THE FIRST AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS PARTS OF VT/NY/ERN AND

CENTRAL PA WHERE FULL SUNSHINE IS RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING THE AIR

MASS. DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F WILL HELP YIELD EARLY AFTERNOON MLCAPE

VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG WITH LITTLE CAP. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM

BY 18Z OVER THIS REGION AND SPREAD SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD. A

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ONTARIO WILL APPROACH THE REGION THROUGH THE

AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN LOW/MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND

INCREASE THE RISK OF A FEW SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE

HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

A SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS MAY AFFECT THIS AREA AFTER DARK...AS

THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH OVERSPREADS THE REGION. PRESENCE OF NORTHWEST

FLOW ALOFT AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES COULD RESULT IN REPEAT

DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE REGION WELL INTO THE

EVENING/NIGHT.

:o

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Today could be fun.

THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE S/W ZONES MAY DELAY ONSET OF TSTM

DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTN...BUT THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS

SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BTWN 18-20Z. VISIBLE SATL IMAGERY SHOWS CLR

SKIES AND STRONG SFC HEATING TAKING PLACE OVER THE NE 1/2 OF THE

CWA WHERE CUMULUS ARE STARTING TO POP-UP AS BLYR RAPIDLY

DESTABILIZES. THE SHORT RANGE MESO MDL DATA INITIATES SCT TO NMRS

TSTMS WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT /PERHAPS ALONG

DIFFUSE PRE-FRONTAL OR LEE TROF/ BY 18-19Z WITH INC CVRG INTO THE

LATE AFTN. MODERATE INSTABILITY...65-70F DEWPOINTS AND

STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS SHOULD PROMOTE ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL

CLUSTERS OR EVEN A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH THE PRIMARY SVR THREATS

BEING DMGG WINDS AND LG HAIL.

BLYR HELICITY AND 0-3KM EHI`S INCREASE THIS EVE INTO TNT ACRS WRN

PA AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE LWR LKS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR

PROFILES ARE MOST FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS OVER THIS AREA AND MAY

SUPPORT THE THREAT OF AN ISOLD TORNADO. A SECOND ROUND OF STORMS

MAY AFFECT THE AREA AFTER DARK AS THE MAIN UPPER TROF OVERSPREADS

THE REGION. STEEPENING MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND FAIRLY STRONG NW

FLOW ALOFT MAY KEEP THE SVR STORM THREAT GOING WELL INTO THE

NIGHTTIME HOURS.

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they are issuing a severe thunderstorm watch that will include these counties in PA until 11pm:

BRADFORD CARBON COLUMBIA

LACKAWANNA LEHIGH LUZERNE

LYCOMING MONROE MONTOUR

NORTHAMPTON NORTHUMBERLAND PIKE

POTTER SCHUYLKILL SULLIVAN

SUSQUEHANNA TIOGA UNION

WAYNE WYOMING

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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0256 PM CDT MON JUL 23 2012

VALID 232000Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE

MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINA COAST...

...VT/NY/ERN AND CENTRAL PA...

INCLUDED SMALL 30 PERCENT SEVERE HAIL AREAS FOR ONGOING TSTMS. MCS

ALONG THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER SHOULD DEVELOP SWD INTO NY AND MAY

END UP CONGEALING WITH SOME OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY IN SRN/ERN NY

AND NERN PA. WITH PROBABLE UPSCALE GROWTH AMIDST A STRENGTHENING

KINEMATIC PROFILE...DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BECOME THE PREDOMINANT

THREAT THIS EVENING.

...OH/WRN PA/WV/ERN KY...

HOW FAR N/W ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF

APPALACHIANS TSTM ACTIVITY IS RATHER UNCERTAIN. GIVEN THE

CONDITIONAL SETUP DISCUSSED IN THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK...MAINTAINED

SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITIES FOR ALL SEVERE TYPES.

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