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NNE Summer 2012


dryslot

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Is there mention of 3/4" hail in the SPS because it was a small possibility, but in general the storm is expected to stay below SVR thresholds?

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME

604 PM EDT SUN AUG 12 2012

NHZ005-006-009-122215-

BELKNAP-SOUTHERN CARROLL-SOUTHERN GRAFTON-

604 PM EDT SUN AUG 12 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT BELKNAP COUNTY...CARROLL COUNTY

AND GRAFTON COUNTY THROUGH 615 PM EDT...

AT 604 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED OVER MEREDITH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20

MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND WEIRS

BEACH...MEREDITH...HOLDERNESS...CENTER HARBOR...ASHLAND...NORTH

SANDWICH...MOUTLONBOROUGH BAY...MELVIN VILLAGE...TUFTONBORO AND

SANDWICH THROUGH 615 PM EDT.

HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...VERY HEAVY

DOWNPOURS...CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55

MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.

Warned now.

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Is there mention of 3/4" hail in the SPS because it was a small possibility, but in general the storm is expected to stay below SVR thresholds?

Mostly because there was a hail signature, but sub-severe. The idea was to get a SPS out there that was more strongly worded than the previous.

Which expired nicely as I needed to issue a severe. I was concerned it was borderline severe, and of course it appears to be on the more severe side now.

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Saw the main slug of precip sliding off to the north, but noticed a curtain of rain rapidly sprout to my west. It quickly grew and near the ground you could see it rapidly spreading out, must have been moving 40-45mph. Very impressive. Gave me a brutal but short lived blast of rain. Any wind spared my immediate backyard... only 28mph.

The lack of lightning is a bummer... only seen 3 distant flashes so far.

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Saw the main slug of precip sliding off to the north, but noticed a curtain of rain rapidly sprout to my west. It quickly grew and near the ground you could see it rapidly spreading out, must have been moving 40-45mph. Very impressive. Gave me a brutal but short lived blast of rain. Any wind spared my immediate backyard... only 28mph.

The lack of lightning is a bummer... only seen 3 distant flashes so far.

Yeah...I was hearing quite a bit of thunder at first, but it's hitting now with none at all. Just some very +RA. I could hear it coming closer through the pine forest in the backyard.
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Can someone kidnap me to your colder world

I recall thinking exactly that during early practices at Hopkins many many years ago. OL/DL always sweated the most.

Only 0.01" yesterday as the rain stayed S & E; even saw a couple of glimpses of sun 5:30-6P. However, the overnight rains of the previous 2 days made for a total of 2.07" since Thurs afternoon. Short of having zero precip with heat and low RH for the next month (forecast strongly says otherwise) the garden has been watered sufficient for the rest of the season. Unfortunately, it never dried out enough so I could prune the leaders off the tomatos as I'd planned. Maybe today.

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8/10" is decent but once again the biggies just missed. The two cocorahs obs from Auburn this morning were 2.00" and 2.40"

.

Its quite amazing to me how many times these cells split right before they reach here, They seem like the follow the the Andosscoggin water shed, I know that the west side of Lewiston prob was close to those numbers as well but i am on the east side and all i could do was watch it miss here again

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Posted this in the banter thread last night, but figured I'd bump this thread with it... we are wayyyyy above normal so far this month thanks to mild overnight lows.

Last night was another good example of a way to start the day with a +5F departure.

Lows...

BTV...63F

MVL...59F

MPV...59F

1V4...60F

If anyone is curious I just looked at the numbers for my area's ASOS departures from normal and so far August has been an all out torch even if daytime highs haven't been that hot. Here are the current departures for this area (remember this area averaged near normal or below for July):

BTV...+4.8F

MVL...+4.8F

MPV...+3.9F

1V4...+2.3F

Average here at Morrisville-Stowe for today is listed as 78/54 at the ASOS (730ft asl). We haven't even been coming close to that low temperature due to the increased humidity. Although we are only 13 days into August, its the overnight lows that are killing us right now and daytime highs haven't been too much above normal. Here's the overnight low temperature distribution between July and August this summer for this area, KMVL:

Month...Lows in the 40s...Lows in the 50s...Lows in the 60s

August...........0........................5.........................8

July................7........................18.......................6

So even less than halfway through this month, we've already had more days with overnight mins in the 60s than the entire month of July. Last month averaged near normal with several stretches of below normal temperatures (and 7 mins in the 40s), whereas this month we have only had 1 below normal day and 12 above normal days.

Its obvious that the humidity that SNE was seeing in July that led to positive departures, has finally moved northward as we were spared that in July with very dry air and large 30-40F+ diurnal temperature swings. Now we are barely seeing 20F diurnal swings with the increased humidity...and likewise we are now seeing similar departures to what SNE had through the first half of July.

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I was just looking at KSLK's overnight lows compared to average. WOW. By this time in a normal (well maybe this is the new normal) KSLK has dropped into the 30s several times and by the end of next week, usually taken a run at 32f. This summer there has been 1 cool night (30s) since July 1and the long range models show no signs of cooling off. The last time I saw a summer like this....summer 2010. Which, if we can repeat winter 2010-2011 I'll be willing to accept.

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Posted this in the banter thread last night, but figured I'd bump this thread with it... we are wayyyyy above normal so far this month thanks to mild overnight lows.

Definitely the warm overnight temps. Out of fourteen high temp obs so far this month, I have five at 80 or above with a max of 85. Also, the high on the 6th and the 10th were both in the low 70s, balancing out that 85. In other words, the daytime highs here haven't been unreasonable.

My low is averaging 58.7 to date for the month. 'Normal' lows in early August here are low/mid 50s....

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Definitely the warm overnight temps. Out of fourteen high temp obs so far this month, I have five at 80 or above with a max of 85. Also, the high on the 6th and the 10th were both in the low 70s, balancing out that 85. In other words, the daytime highs here haven't been unreasonable.

My low is averaging 58.7 to date for the month. 'Normal' lows in early August here are low/mid 50s....

Won't be long we will start to see some cooler temps as we approach late august

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Posted this in the banter thread last night, but figured I'd bump this thread with it... we are wayyyyy above normal so far this month thanks to mild overnight lows.

It sounds like you are 100% thoroughly enjoying this magnificent exceptional warmth.

Only two days so far this month have had lows in the upper 50's. :sizzle:

			 MONTHLY CLIMATOLOGICAL SUMMARY FOR 8/2012
								 HEAT COOL	
 MEAN							 DEG DEG	 WIND SPEED	 DOM MEAN MEAN
DAY TEMP HIGH TIME	 LOW TIME DAYS DAYS RAIN AVG HI TIME DIR BAROM HUM
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 72.3 82.6 3:53pm 66.3 5:54am 0 7 0.00 2 16 9:37am W1009.98 82
2 75.1 88.0 3:11pm 67.8 2:59am 0 10 0.00 1 14 3:00pm W1008.99 81
3 75.4 89.7 4:19pm 66.3 3:12am 0 10 0.02 2 24 7:14pm W1013.01 78
4 75.2 89.5 3:02pm 66.3 5:33am 0 10 0.00 1 18 5:03pm ENE1020.47 80
5 74.9 90.3 3:04pm 65.8 3:54am 0 10 0.43 4 33 4:06pm W1016.16 87
6 71.4 79.4 2:42pm 60.7 11:33pm 0 7 0.01 6 21 12:48pm W1012.43 74
7 68.8 82.8 4:17pm 57.0 5:41am 2 6 0.00 1 15 3:34pm W1013.75 75
8 72.6 87.4 3:52pm 59.2 6:06am 1 9 0.00 1 11 11:40am WSW1013.14 71
9 73.6 86.1 3:07pm 63.5 6:15am 0 9 0.01 1 9 12:22pm NE1011.81 80
10 71.0 77.4 2:42pm 68.3 6:58pm 0 6 1.72 3 13 11:07pm NE1010.71 95
11 70.9 79.0 2:50pm 66.8 5:51am 0 6 0.39 1 13 12:35am E1010.49 94
12 71.3 81.6 3:50pm 66.9 11:28pm 0 6 0.19 1 28 5:55pm NE1011.00 94
13 72.3 83.0 3:19pm 64.7 5:45am 0 7 0.01 3 20 12:57pm WSW1011.37 80
14 65.9 75.6 10:34am 62.9 5:17am 0 1 0.00 1 7 8:45am W1012.17 93
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOT 72.5 90.3 8/5/12 57.0 8/7/12 4 103 2.78 2 30 8/5/12 W1012.55 83

Look how terribly that pasted.

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August 1-15 has averaged 77/58 at my place. The 14-yr avg for the period is 76/54. I did get down to 48 one morning last week.

Mild TS with only light rain 5-5:45 this morning. The heavy rain (50 dbz) came about 6:30, when I left for work. 2 miles south of my place it faded to -RA, which continued until I was ready to exit the pickup at the AUG parking lot, at which time a 40 dbz downpour accompanied the 200-yard stroll to the building. Total qpf (24 hr ending 6:30) was 0.69", 0.18" of which fell late morn yest. Probably close to 1" total by now.

Quite dark and +RA in AUG at the moment.

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Nickel and dimed over here the past few days rainfall wise. 0.07" in the bucket yesterday morning and 0.10" this morning.

Looks pretty nice coming up though, once we sweep out the swamp. Low to mid 70s for highs and 40s and 50s for lows. Sweetness.

I'm in SNE till Sunday morning (in the most humid state in the nation) and this forecast looks great to come back to. Enjoy this up north guys! 70-75F for highs and low 47-53F.

Saturday: Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. Light and variable winds.

Saturday Night And Sunday: Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the mid 70s.

Sunday Night Through Tuesday: Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the lower 70s.

Tuesday Night And Wednesday: Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the mid 70s.

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Nice circulation going on in Maine. Showers in western VT, more streaking through central NH (eek!), nada here for now....

Really collapsing on the mid-coast: Wiscasset-ish.

Speaking of which, the wife and I will be spending a few days/nights on Georgetown Island in Maine the week/weekend after Labor Day. Looking forward to it. I used to work on a boat out of Rockland but haven't spent much time over there since then (mid-90s).

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