dryslot Posted July 16, 2012 Author Share Posted July 16, 2012 Was not the case a bit farther north, as our big June rains came fairly gradually. The 4" event 1st week kicked rivers up near flood stage, but rain never fell heavier than 2-3 tenths/hr at my place. The 4th week rain added 3" more and probably never reached 2 tenths/hr. That's why our rivers and streams are fairly close to median flow for the date. However, the top layers are dusty dry. After 9" in June, I've had 0.27" in July with temps 1.5-2F above my avg and abundant sun. Last 4 days highs 84/86/88/85, very warm for my foliage-shielded instrument, with that 88 tops for the year so far. Some monster rains yest/last night in central Somerset Cty, Moosehead Lake and points west, with doppler estimates 3-5" and GYX noting that any action today for that area needs close watching. I had just got done reading the GYX AFD with that being mentioned before you posted it, See some showers popping up and dropping SSE over some of those area's now on radar, Hopefully a couple hold together and make it here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 I had just got done reading the GYX AFD with that being mentioned before you posted it, See some showers popping up and dropping SSE over some of those area's now on radar, Hopefully a couple hold together and make it here One in central Franklin appears aimed at my place, but I've seen that before.... My guess - it slipslides to the west of my garden. (And to the east of you. The ones popping up in Oxford and adjacent Coos seem better chances for Andro.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 16, 2012 Author Share Posted July 16, 2012 One in central Franklin appears aimed at my place, but I've seen that before.... My guess - it slipslides to the west of my garden. (And to the east of you. The ones popping up in Oxford and adjacent Coos seem better chances for Andro.) Yup, That one will miss here, We have a better shot from the ones coming out of the Bethal/Bryant Pond area if they can sustain themselves, Not very impressive at all though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 Yup, That one will miss here, We have a better shot from the ones coming out of the Bethal/Bryant Pond area if they can sustain themselves, Not very impressive at all though May not be impressive but I can guarantee a direct hit on Limington. I left my windows wide open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 Had a brief pulser go through here with a trace while south of Franklin took the heart of it. It's getting dark again to my NNW, but there's nothing on radar yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 16, 2012 Author Share Posted July 16, 2012 May not be impressive but I can guarantee a direct hit on Limington. I left my windows wide open. That is usually a good recipe for a storm when you end up leaving them open... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 One in central Franklin appears aimed at my place, but I've seen that before.... My guess - it slipslides to the west of my garden. Happened just that way, as the east end of that storm wasted away. Not that I deserve any credit, as I merely guessed that history would repeat itself and watched it do exactly that. Fair amount of popcorn upstream, but they don't appear to be gaining much traction at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 Essentially 0 for 2 on the day with scrapers that hit just west of here, but it appears #3 may provide some measurable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 We had some tropical dews this afternoon from the light showers and sprinkles with mixed sun. I had an hour where it was stable around 76F with a temp in the upper 70s. It's down to a slightly more manageable 75/72 right now. Max/min/precip was 84/66/0.02" today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 17, 2012 Author Share Posted July 17, 2012 Today's action has been a whiff east here .57" for the month of July so far, Not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 I was surprised last evening when I got home to fine my thermo showing me a high of only 81 here. Must've stayed fairly cloudy for a good chuck of the peak heating time. No showers--had a pulser pop up near by but it quicly raced southeastward into NH. Today on the other hand looks interesting. Might be smaht to actually take four wheels to work this morning instead of two....in preperation for this afternoon, that is. Quite a slug of rain coming down/across from Canada this morning. Looks like some of you Maine guys might see some of this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 Could be an interesting weather day for the NNE peeps. INTERESTING DAY SETTING UP AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. GOOD HEATING AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING SHEAR RESULTING IN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SOME OF WHICH WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE. GOOD MID LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF DYNAMICS FOR SUPER CELL DEVELOPMENT. MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS BUT STRONGER CELLS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...EVEN WITH FREEZING LEVELS AT 15K FT. POTENTIAL WILL ALSO EXIST FOR SOME ISOLATED TORNADOES LATER IN THE DAY AS BEST DYNAMICS PUNCH INTO THE AREA AT THE TIME OF MAX HEATING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SPC ISSUING A WATCH AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY. EXPECT CONVECTION TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN ZONES LATE THIS MORNING AND GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL SEND TEMPS ROCKETING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN WARMER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND INTERIOR MAINE. FARTHER NORTH...WILL SEE HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 80S. -- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 Just looking at the weather across the NY, NH, VT areas for next 12-24hours. My model picking up on some pretty good potential for convection across the area. Right now over the Massena, Saranac, and MontPelier areas picking up on thunderstorms. Main threat I think is strong winds with these storms up to around 70mph possible. Looking at stability indices around -5 for LI's, Surface CAPE around 1500 j/kg, and the 0-3KM ML CAPE around 302 j/kg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 Quite a slug of rain coming down/across from Canada this morning. Looks like some of you Maine guys might see some of this? Actually looking like some of that will catch us here. Woot! Just looking at the weather across the NY, NH, VT areas for next 12-24hours. My model picking up on some pretty good potential for convection across the area. Right now over the Massena, Saranac, and MontPelier areas picking up on thunderstorms. Main threat I think is strong winds with these storms up to around 70mph possible. Looking at stability indices around -5 for LI's, Surface CAPE around 1500 j/kg, and the 0-3KM ML CAPE around 302 j/kg. That's what I've been picking up on too. Eyes on the skies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 17, 2012 Author Share Posted July 17, 2012 Could be an interesting weather day for the NNE peeps. INTERESTING DAY SETTING UP AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. GOOD HEATING AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING SHEAR RESULTING IN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SOME OF WHICH WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE. GOOD MID LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF DYNAMICS FOR SUPER CELL DEVELOPMENT. MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS BUT STRONGER CELLS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...EVEN WITH FREEZING LEVELS AT 15K FT. POTENTIAL WILL ALSO EXIST FOR SOME ISOLATED TORNADOES LATER IN THE DAY AS BEST DYNAMICS PUNCH INTO THE AREA AT THE TIME OF MAX HEATING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SPC ISSUING A WATCH AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY. EXPECT CONVECTION TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN ZONES LATE THIS MORNING AND GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL SEND TEMPS ROCKETING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN WARMER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND INTERIOR MAINE. FARTHER NORTH...WILL SEE HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 80S. -- End Changed Discussion -- Pretty good slug of moisture has developed over northern maine and a line of storms behind that moisture starting to develop and move SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 Get your boots on, boys and girls ... ---1300Z UPDATE--- REMNANTS OF MCS MOVEING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL WORK THE AIRMASS OVER A LITTLE BIT...IT WILL NOT CHANGE THINGS TOO MUCH. MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS ROUGHLY 3000J/KG WORTH OF CAPE TO WORK WITH THIS AFTERNOON. AS BOUNDARY GETS NEARER TO CWA...SHEAR WILL INCREASE ALSO. THIS LOOKS TO BE SETTING UP TO BE A BUSY DAY WITH SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY NOW THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND TODAY. ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 17, 2012 Author Share Posted July 17, 2012 Get your boots on, boys and girls ... ---1300Z UPDATE--- REMNANTS OF MCS MOVEING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL WORK THE AIRMASS OVER A LITTLE BIT...IT WILL NOT CHANGE THINGS TOO MUCH. MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS ROUGHLY 3000J/KG WORTH OF CAPE TO WORK WITH THIS AFTERNOON. AS BOUNDARY GETS NEARER TO CWA...SHEAR WILL INCREASE ALSO. THIS LOOKS TO BE SETTING UP TO BE A BUSY DAY WITH SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY NOW THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND TODAY. ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. Been bumped up to 80% chance of severe today and this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 Just starting to rain here in AUG. Had 0.13" last evening at my place, bringing July up to 0.40". However, an hour of 30-40 dbz there (9:10 to 10:10) has probably dumped that much again, and it looks to have another 20-30 minutes of good stuff before it clears MBY - probably will boost my July total up to about 1". Some places near the PQ border got over an inch just from this MCS. Then some more fun this afternoon - my garden says thanks (assuming the "fun" doesn't include large hail.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 Yeah, definitely nice to see these showers this morning. I'm just hoping the clouds (which are nice overhead) and rain don't stabilize things too much for later on. There look to be breaks in the clouds upstream to rev things up for later.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 17, 2012 Author Share Posted July 17, 2012 Yeah, definitely nice to see these showers this morning. I'm just hoping the clouds (which are nice overhead) and rain don't stabilize things too much for later on. There look to be breaks in the clouds upstream to rev things up for later.... It would be good to see if we can heat things up with some clearing to add to the destabilization for this PM's potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 It would be good to see if we can heat things up with some clearing to add to the destabilization for this PM's potential Yup. Webcams in NW VT showing brightening. Sat looks good too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 17, 2012 Author Share Posted July 17, 2012 Yup. Webcams in NW VT showing brightening. Sat looks good too. Looks like there is some clearing over in Northern NH into the Western Maine mtns, Also looks like more convection firing over extreme Northern VT and NH moving east into Maine on enhanced water vapor imagery Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 17, 2012 Author Share Posted July 17, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1480 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1102 AM CDT TUE JUL 17 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...UPSTATE NY...NRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 171602Z - 171700Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EXPECTED N OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY 17-18Z. THE W-E ORIENTED LINE OF STORMS WILL THEN PROGRESS SWD INTO UPSTATE NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND...WITH A PREDOMINANT THREAT OF DMGG WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES. HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY INITIALLY DISCRETE STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP. A WW APPEARS LIKELY BY 17-18Z. DISCUSSION...INITIAL STRATUS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION IS QUICKLY PROGRESSING EWD...WITH CLEARING AND AMPLE SURFACE HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOCATIONS ACROSS CNTRL AND UPSTATE NY THAT HAVE CLEARED HAVE ALREADY ACHIEVED FORECAST HIGHS APPROXIMATELY FOUR HOURS EARLIER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS FORECAST. AS SUCH...MODERATE SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION IS RAPIDLY OCCURRING...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS ACROSS MI SUGGEST STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ADVECT EWD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...WHILE A DEEP LAYER STRENGTHENING OF WINDS OCCURS AROUND THE BASE OF A HUDSON BAY TROUGH. ATTM...IT APPEARS CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL OCCUR ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN REINFORCED BY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING RESIDING ACROSS NRN ME...SRN QC AND ON. A LINE OF BOWING SEGMENTS AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS SHOULD THEN PROGRESS SWD...FAVORABLY TIMED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES/INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ..HURLBUT/MEAD.. 07/17/2012 ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... LAT...LON 44327600 44987497 45037189 45267119 45187053 44677033 44087067 43707163 43547355 43467544 43617618 44107640 44327600 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 Brightening up in AUG tho no sun yet. However, that patch of colorful echoes in Oxford Cty is going to hit here within the next hour - probably stay north of LEW and south of MBY. The MCS was dying by the time it got to AUG. I doubt this place got much over a tenth or so, maybe 1/4 of what fell on my garden, so this next bunch will offer some catch-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 Looking across the area, showing a bit of higher spike in possible tornadic storm across the NY into VT areas. Showing from 20Z to 01Z over 40% chance of Tornado probability based on my output. Around the area from Fort Drum to Syracuse up to Montpelier, VT areas. Think we will see some strong straight line winds up to around 70mph with some of the storms. Indices I am tracking are LI's around -5, SFC CAPE around 1400 J/KG, 0-3KM SRH is around 165 m/s, LCL Heights around 812 meters. Nice moisture tongue running up into NY/VT area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 We had some tropical dews this afternoon from the light showers and sprinkles with mixed sun. I had an hour where it was stable around 76F with a temp in the upper 70s. It's down to a slightly more manageable 75/72 right now. Max/min/precip was 84/66/0.02" today. Backyard sensor. It was wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 17, 2012 Author Share Posted July 17, 2012 Backyard sensor. It was wrong Vegetation induced readings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 17, 2012 Author Share Posted July 17, 2012 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 489 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 125 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINE NEW HAMPSHIRE NORTHERN NEW YORK VERMONT EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 125 PM UNTIL 900 PM EDT. HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WATERTOWN NEW YORK TO 40 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF BERLIN NEW HAMPSHIRE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 488... DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ADVANCING SEWD INTO THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM THE W AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL YIELD MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. WHEN COUPLED WITH A STEADILY STRENGTHENING WLY...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD...SETUP WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 32030. ...MEAD Franklin and Oxford county here could be staring down the gun barrel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 Starting to pop along the NY/Quebec border. Odd orientation to the line too--not what we normally see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 Good ... seems hail is off the menu .. .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS APPROACH THE AREA WE WILL START TO SEE A MUCH BETTER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. WITH CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 3000J/KG AND DECENT HELICITY ...THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE BEST SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL BE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN SLIDE SOUTH OVER THE NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS. WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL OVER 15K FEET AND A WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT OF 13.5K FEET...LARGE HAIL SHOULD NOT BE A MAJOR THREAT. EXPECT BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND DAMAGING WINDS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE UP AROUND 1.8 INCHES...SO VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A PLAYER. BECAUSE OF THE WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION OF THE BOUNDARY...WE COULD SEE SOME TRAINING STORMS THAT DUMP A LARGE AMOUNT OF WATER IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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