cloneranger Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 http://www.cpc.ncep....ensoyears.shtml I have liked 2006 for quite a while now as an analog year. Note how the ONI values so far this year EXACTLY MATCH those seen in 2006. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 Interesting ob. Yep, the very important Nino 3.4 SST's and OHC are quite similar. What is different are the much warmer Nino 1+2 SST's this time (though this is much more volatile than 3.4) and the May-early June SOI's, which were much more consistently negative in 2006 vs. the current back and forth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 http://www.cpc.ncep....ensoyears.shtml I have liked 2006 for quite a while now as an analog year. Note how the ONI values so far this year EXACTLY MATCH those seen in 2006. You need to be very careful when looking at analog years that have simliar 3.4 anomaly magnitudes!! It is just a box averaged index that does not show the structure of the particular ENSO event. For instance, below are time-longitude plots from November 2005-June 2006 and November 2011 to present. Right off the bat you can notice some differences in magnitude of dynamic tropopause height anomalies (left figure) and SST anomalies over the eastern Pacific (right figure). These differences will cause the atmosphere to respond differently, thus if you try to make some sort of long-range prediction based off of what happened in 2006, you might find yourself in the weeds. I find it is appropriate to apply a low-pass (200 day) filter on an outgoing long wave radiation (OLR) dataset. This will tell you where there are low-frequency (inter-annual) convective signatures, the type of signal that will set up your planetary scale extra-tropical waves. Paul Roundy has this type of stuff in his archived 2006 and present longitude plots, indicated by the bold black contours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 What year did you have in mind that matches the 2012 ENSO event so far Mike? I love your research and I hope you stay on these boards for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 What year did you have in mind that matches the 2012 ENSO event so far Mike? I love your research and I hope you stay on these boards for a while. Thank you for the nice comment. Based off the current state of the MJO, and low-frequency convective signatures, 1975 and 1995 are better fits than 2006. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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