forkyfork Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Monday looks better ~35 kts of shear, good cape, good low level moisture, and a strong upper system digging in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 It seems as if we do not generally receive severe storms when we are coming out of a heat wave. Instead, we fare way better when the temperatures are in the 80s or 70s. Also, whenever the area is expecting more than a half-inch of rain during the expected "severe" weather day, it dooms our chances of getting organized severe storms. The heavy rain probably creates too much convective debris in the afternoon with those unimpressive cirrostratus clouds instead of explosive cumulus clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 Clouds this morning in E PA & NJ may get in the way of much heating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 Clouds this morning in E PA & NJ may get in the way of much heating. I think we see breaks and it's still unstable. No.organized storm.activity this morning should help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 The steep low level lapse rates should help out for the severe wind gust potential in the strongest cells today. Another threat is going to be flash flooding with PW's topping 1.8 inches under the areas of strongest convection. We may also see a very high total of lightning strikes per hour under this type of set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 The steep low level lapse rates should help out for the severe wind gust potential in the strongest cells today. Another threat is going to be flash flooding with PW's topping 1.8 inches under the areas of strongest convection. We may also see a very high total of lightning strikes per hour under this type of set up. About what time this afternoon should we expect storms to be in and about the NYC area? Is this an early afternoon or evening thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 About what time this afternoon should we expect storms to be in and about the NYC area? Is this an early afternoon or evening thing? 18z give or tale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 About what time this afternoon should we expect storms to be in and about the NYC area? Is this an early afternoon or evening thing? 18z give or take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 About what time this afternoon should we expect storms to be in and about the NYC area? Is this an early afternoon or evening thing? The cap is weak. Convection could get on by early this afternoon and become widespread into this evening. With low shear, high PWATS and low mid-level instability, I think main threats are torrential rains and some wet microbursts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 18z give or take If that's the case I can't see how the park gets to the mid 90s. They were able to barely pull off a 94 when they had two days of wall to wall sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 The cap is weak. Convection could get on by early this afternoon and become widespread into this evening. With low shear, high PWATS and low mid-level instability, I think main threats are torrential rains and some wet microbursts. You're thinking slow moving storms then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 The cap is weak. Convection could get on by early this afternoon and become widespread into this evening. With low shear, high PWATS and low mid-level instability, I think main threats are torrential rains and some wet microbursts. Winds are a legit threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 35k+ effective bulk shear is moving into the area, SBCAPE is already surging over 1500 J/KG, mid-level lapse rates are improving and low level lapse rates are high. Overall I think a fairly good setup for us. Skies have cleared here in Ramsey and we have hazy sunshine. Not a single cloud in the sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 22, 2012 Author Share Posted June 22, 2012 You would usually want these clouds out of the way to get some sun before the weak forcing arrives..but we're plenty unstable and especially with such a weak cap, we should be ok. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_PA/anim8vis.html The SPC WRF didn't have the storms getting going until 20z and impacting the area until 21-22z anyway, so we still have plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 You would usually want these clouds out of the way to get some sun before the weak forcing arrives..but we're plenty unstable and especially with such a weak cap, we should be ok. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_PA/anim8vis.html The SPC WRF didn't have the storms getting going until 20z and impacting the area until 21-22z anyway, so we still have plenty of time. Sun is out and has been for a while for many espeixally nj and ct where threat is greatest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 It's pretty overcast at the moment, but I agree won't matter much with temps already near or above 90 Sun is out and has been for a while for many espeixally nj and ct where threat is greatest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 You would usually want these clouds out of the way to get some sun before the weak forcing arrives..but we're plenty unstable and especially with such a weak cap, we should be ok. http://www.meteo.psu...A/anim8vis.html The SPC WRF didn't have the storms getting going until 20z and impacting the area until 21-22z anyway, so we still have plenty of time. The 12Z HRRR has coverage in NE PA really exploding the next 2 hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 You would usually want these clouds out of the way to get some sun before the weak forcing arrives..but we're plenty unstable and especially with such a weak cap, we should be ok. http://www.meteo.psu...A/anim8vis.html The SPC WRF didn't have the storms getting going until 20z and impacting the area until 21-22z anyway, so we still have plenty of time. youre not thinking anything earlier than that? im thinking pre-frontal stuff where those clouds are at..already a few shwsr have popped up along it...and agree with the weak forcing doing the job, we already saw a t-storm pop up along the jersey shore from a sea breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 It's pretty overcast at the moment, but I agree won't matter much with temps already near or above 90 Full Sun ct coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 Think we'll see a watch box go up? I'm not sure I want one. They seem to be the kiss of death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1239 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1118 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN/ERN VA...CENTRAL/ERN PA...SWRN NEW ENGLAND...SRN NY...DE...MD...NJ...DC. CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 221618Z - 221845Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...SVR THREAT FCST TO INCREASE FROM MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION...OF DISCRETE...CLUSTERED AND QUASI-LINEAR CHARACTER...DEVELOPING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON AND MOVING OVER THIS AREA. MAIN CONCERN IS DAMAGING GUSTS. DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE FCST TO DEVELOP IN AT LEAST TWO PRIMARY SWATHS OR BANDS... 1. NEAR AND E OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE...ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD BAND NOW EVIDENT ON VIS IMAGERY FROM ERN PA SWWD ACROSS VA/WV BORDER REGION. ANY SUCH TSTMS WILL POSE EARLIEST SVR RISK FROM TIDEWATER AREA NEWD OVER COASTAL MID-ATLC AND SRN NEW ENGLAND. 2. ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT...INITIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL PA INTO NRN WV. FRONT PRECEDES POSITIVELY TILTED MID-UPPER TROUGH BY ABOUT 100-150 NM USING MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY...BUT WITH SOME LARGE-SCALE ASCENT EVIDENT OVER FRONTAL ZONE. THESE FEATURES WILL SHIFT EWD OVER MID-ATLC REGION THIS AFTERNOON. 16Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED COLD FRONT FROM NRN NY SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SWRN PA AND WRN WV. SFC TROUGH WITH WEAK EMBEDDED LOWS WAS EVIDENT PARALLEL TO COLD FRONT AND FARTHER E...EXTENDING FROM SERN VA NNEWD OVER SRN CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ERN NJ TO RI AND ERN MA...INTERSECTING WARM FRONT JUST OFFSHORE NH. WARM FRONT EXTENDED NNEWD FROM THERE OVER MAINE. TROUGH APPEARS COLLOCATED WITH SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY OVER ERN NJ...AND A COUPLE OF TSTMS ALREADY HAVE DEVELOPED THERE. MODIFIED IAD/APG/WAL/OKX RAOBS SUGGEST PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD MIX VIGOROUSLY ACROSS MUCH OF NEAR-COASTAL CORRIDOR IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED STG SFC DIABATIC HEATING. SIMILAR PROCESS SHOULD OCCUR BEHIND AFOREMENTIONED PREFRONTAL CLOUD BAND. RESULT WOULD BE POCKETS OF REDUCED SFC DEW POINTS...AT BASE OF INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FEATURING NEARLY DRY-ADIABATIC LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. YET MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT EVEN IN THOSE RELATIVELY DRY AREAS TO OFFSET MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND KEEP AT LEAST MRGL BUOYANCY OVER REGION. GIVEN HORIZONTALLY INHOMOGENEOUS NATURE OF EXPECTED MIXING/MOISTURE FIELDS...MLCAPE WILL VARY GREATLY WITH VALUES RANGING FROM 500-2500 J/KG...TRENDING INVERSELY WITH STRENGTH OF VERTICAL MIXING. 30-35 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZATION TO MULTICELL MODES...AND POTENTIAL FOR SMALL BOWS WITH LOCALLY ENHANCED COLD-POOL FORCING. ..EDWARDS/WEISS.. 06/22/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 22, 2012 Author Share Posted June 22, 2012 Might be some re-generation going on near the Delaware River...it looks like some of those updrafts might get going again. The boundary near the GSP is dominating right now though, beautiful outflow on the high-resolution KDIX radar from the storm near Toms River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 22, 2012 Author Share Posted June 22, 2012 I'd definitely watch that batch carefully, just west of Flemington. If some new updrafts can get going just east of the light rain over Allentown, they could hold together and progress eastward towards Northeast NJ and NYC. 30-40kts of 0-6km/effective bulk shear in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 I'd definitely watch that batch carefully, just west of Flemington. If some new updrafts can get going just east of the light rain over Allentown, they could hold together and progress eastward towards Northeast NJ and NYC. 30-40kts of 0-6km/effective bulk shear in place. Where? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 22, 2012 Author Share Posted June 22, 2012 Where? Oops-- my cache must have not been cleared. Those storms were on the leading edge of 35 kts of effective shear. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s16/eshr/eshr_12062214.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 Oops-- my cache must have not been cleared. Those storms were on the leading edge of 35 kts of effective shear. http://www.spc.noaa....hr_12062214.gif I was gonna say, lol. You got my hopes up for a minute! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 22, 2012 Author Share Posted June 22, 2012 I was gonna say, lol. You got my hopes up for a minute! Mine were too -- the SREF mean had been lagging the best shear behind the forcing for a few days, so I was surprised to see that earlier this morning. But it seems to have come back down to earth a bit now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 22, 2012 Author Share Posted June 22, 2012 TEWR showing the strong storm west of Flemington now, clear as day heading northeastward through Hunterdon Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 22, 2012 Author Share Posted June 22, 2012 Boundaries gone wild on KDIX radar too, from the storms west of LBI. That cluster really went to town just east of the Garden State Pkwy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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