forkyfork Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 not excited until i see better shear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Strongest rotation I have seen on a storm in about 4 years, and there have been many tor warnings before that. I could tell you why it's not warned, but I can't post that on a public message board. Please, do share. Sad I missed that storm (though it sounds like it weakened before getting to New Brunswick). I was ironically out chasing in the Plains seeing nothing that day while John was texting Dsnowx53- and I pictures of that storm over central NJ. Go figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Once it crossed into Somerset county from Morris it weakened considerably. Most of the wind and hail was gone though we did get an inch of rain and some good thunder and lightning. Please, do share. Sad I missed that storm (though it sounds like it weakened before getting to New Brunswick). I was ironically out chasing in the Plains seeing nothing that day while John was texting Dsnowx53- and I pictures of that storm over central NJ. Go figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 not excited until i see better shear nope, you like the 10 day threat as per your words in the SNE thread. I'll remember that when you complain people talking about a 10 day snow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Please, do share. Sad I missed that storm (though it sounds like it weakened before getting to New Brunswick). I was ironically out chasing in the Plains seeing nothing that day while John was texting Dsnowx53- and I pictures of that storm over central NJ. Go figure. meh, that was all handled last week, no reason to go through that again. You got any pics of your plains chase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 meh, that was all handled last week, no reason to go through that again. You got any pics of your plains chase? Yep. Actually still going through them - taking forever, it seems. The pattern was ultimately crap but we made the best of it and wound up seeing 3 supercells and a tornado (albeit hardly textbook as the pictures will show ). I should be making a thread in the Photo section soon that I'll link to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Yep. Actually still going through them - taking forever, it seems. The pattern was ultimately crap but we made the best of it and wound up seeing 3 supercells and a tornado (albeit hardly textbook as the pictures will show ). I should be making a thread in the Photo section soon that I'll link to. great looking forward to seeing it, I am sure even the crappy outbreaks make anything we see out here look pathetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 can some "iso severe" clusters form this eve along the sfc trof that sets up along the coast and just inland? We'll see. It has ridging aloft going against it pretty hard. Oh hell, lets let some folks cool off with a tstorm chance. Why not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 can some "iso severe" clusters form this eve along the sfc trof that sets up along the coast and just inland? We'll see. It has ridging aloft going against it pretty hard. Oh hell, lets let some folks cool off with a tstorm chance. Why not? The 0z SPC WRF does show some t-storms this evening: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Yea, SPC likes FRI for SVR. Shear is just enough and instability is fine. Wish the shortwave was a bit closer but still should provide enough forcing to ignite some good storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Yea, SPC likes FRI for SVR. Shear is just enough and instability is fine. Wish the shortwave was a bit closer but still should provide enough forcing to ignite some good storms. yup, saw the setup several days ago, sheer was an issue, but it has improved to the point as you say that it's just there. Plenty of instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 cape stays under 1000 on friday according to nam bufkit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 cape stays under 1000 on friday according to nam bufkit Thats blows....storms have been as scarse as hens teeth lately lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 cape stays under 1000 on friday according to nam bufkit Thats blows....storms have been as scarse as hens teeth lately lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 The 0z SPC WRF does show some t-storms this evening: wow was this thing wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 cape stays under 1000 on friday according to nam bufkit its about 1300 at 8am on the EWR sounding, but then it goes below 1000 as things start popping up. The timing of this potential morning convection well ahead of the front is going to be the death of me the next 2 days. Euro has been saying no, gfs has been saying big time yes...nam/sref are kind of right in the middle, showing the slower front but also picking up some scattered stuff in the AM still for the DC-NYC corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 its about 1300 at 8am on the EWR sounding, but then it goes below 1000 as things start popping up. The timing of this potential morning convection well ahead of the front is going to be the death of me the next 2 days. Euro has been saying no, gfs has been saying big time yes...nam is kind of right in the middle, showing the slower front but also picking up some scattered stuff in the AM still for the DC-NYC corridor. 12z NAM looks very aggresive with the line of storms tomorrow afternoon. Looks like some training as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 12z NAM looks very aggresive with the line of storms tomorrow afternoon. Looks like some training as well. I have and still do like this threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 meh, that was all handled last week, no reason to go through that again. You got any pics of your plains chase? Still working on digging through the pictures, but here's a timelapse a friend of mine posted of our best supercell in Pine Bluffs, Wyoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 its about 1300 at 8am on the EWR sounding, but then it goes below 1000 as things start popping up. The timing of this potential morning convection well ahead of the front is going to be the death of me the next 2 days. Euro has been saying no, gfs has been saying big time yes...nam/sref are kind of right in the middle, showing the slower front but also picking up some scattered stuff in the AM still for the DC-NYC corridor. i've noticed the gfs and nam tend to show development too early. climo says ~18z onward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Still working on digging through the pictures, but here's a timelapse a friend of mine posted of our best supercell in Pine Bluffs, Wyoming. awesome did it ever go tornadic? doesnt appear that it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 i've noticed the gfs and nam tend to show development too early. climo says ~18z onward well that is good to know forky. I was largely discounting the gfs for the most part. It seems to be showing way too much precip/convection ever since the upgrade...the nam/sref is what had my attention. sref probs are still pretty low until 18z onward like you said, but a few members have the morning stuff. barring no convection through midday, temps should shoot up like a carbon copy of today looking at 925 temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 awesome did it ever go tornadic? doesnt appear that it did. It actually produced a funnel and brief landspout/tornado when we first got there, but the time lapse was taken after that. It kept trying but couldn't produce more than the initial tornado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 21, 2012 Author Share Posted June 21, 2012 Not overly impressed... the best shear is lacking behind the surface front..at the time of the heaviest precip on the SREF mean our 0-6km bulk shear is less than 30 kts...but i'm sure we'll get some heavy rain and thunderstorms due to the widespread instability and moist airmass with the front approaching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 I have and still do like this threat. With the kind of instability we'll have all the way to the coastal areas, storms that do form should have no problem even staying strong as they approach the NYC metro/east. We'll see though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 I have and still do like this threat. never a good sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 never a good sign A few weeks ago people were calling for isolated TOR's and it didn't even rain, it is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Not overly impressed... the best shear is lacking behind the surface front..at the time of the heaviest precip on the SREF mean our 0-6km bulk shear is less than 30 kts...but i'm sure we'll get some heavy rain and thunderstorms due to the widespread instability and moist airmass with the front approaching. Yeah heavy rain will be the biggest story in my opinion. Solid instability in a moist atmosphere (pwats approaching 2") along with weak winds along a slow moving front.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Monday looks better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Tomorrow might not produce severe but heavy rain looks likely. When you see models printing 1"-2" of rain, it's usually a good sign of organized convection and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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