Brian5671 Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 earthlight promised us a TOR for tomorrow, so I am pumped. Steve D. already printing "I survived the 2012 NYC Metro Tornado" as we speak. lol. I'm rooting for no rain tomorrow-wife's reunion picnic at Fairfield U and then 10 kids plus parents back here in the evening....going to be interesting if they are all inside.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 Upton noting that best convection tomorrow near and south of the front...key is where does it stall? - .SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL NEAR THE CWA ON SATURDAY AND WILL SERVE AS THE UPSTREAM FOCUS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT. INCREASING CLOUDINESS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE STALLED FRONT. WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF CWA...CONFIDENCE IS THAT THESE AREAS WILL SEE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH WIND DAMAGE. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 Upton noting that best convection tomorrow near and south of the front...key is where does it stall? - .SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL NEAR THE CWA ON SATURDAY AND WILL SERVE AS THE UPSTREAM FOCUS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT. INCREASING CLOUDINESS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE STALLED FRONT. WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF CWA...CONFIDENCE IS THAT THESE AREAS WILL SEE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH WIND DAMAGE. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. i dunno sounds like much better chances inland with us along the coast maybe seeing some scattered stuff. we gotta have alot to go right for us to get severe storms NYC east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 3rd series of storms looks the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 3rd series of storms looks the best. trials, whats your take on the storm threat tommorow for the tristate area? im thinking isolated severe storms away from the coast with some rotating storms, maybe some garden variety storms for long island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 trials, whats your take on the storm threat tommorow for the tristate area? im thinking isolated severe storms away from the coast with some rotating storms, maybe some garden variety storms for long island. you're asking the wrong guy my friend, earthlight, isotherm, and weathergun are the severe junkies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 The following locations reported nickle-sized hail with that cell: 2:30 p.m. at Fahnestock State Park 2:45 p.m. at Mahopac, NY 3:00 p.m. at Yorktown, NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 Dark clouds to my south as a weakening storm moved through Hudson county and Manhattan. Regarding tomorrow's activity, the SPC WRF has mostly light-moderate rain, but it does show an individual strong cell over central NJ. There's certainly the potential for strong/severe storm activity especially with the decent shear combined with some instability, but the axis of severe weather should be narrow. Perhaps a narrow slight risk zone could be added tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 Dark clouds to my south as a weakening storm moved through Hudson county and Manhattan. Regarding tomorrow's activity, the SPC WRF has mostly light-moderate rain, but it does show an individual strong cell over central NJ. There's certainly the potential for strong/severe storm activity especially with the decent shear combined with some instability, but the axis of severe weather should be narrow. Perhaps a narrow slight risk zone could be added tomorrow? based upon what John said I was expecting more to be progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 based upon what John said I was expecting more to be progged. Like yesterday guess we'll have to wait to see what transpires today as far as severe weather developing in our area. The SPC WRF has been very good lately so its hard to go against, but by early afternoon we should have a good idea of whats gonna happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 earthlight promised us a TOR for tomorrow, so I am pumped. Steve D. already printing "I survived the 2012 NYC Metro Tornado" as we speak. Doubtful steve d makes those shirts....he is very successful with private forcasts for the public now.....own personal weatheman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 sight, ugly day, on a weekend. Good thing the tee time is Monday A.M. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 Potential instability today looks best from the Hudson westward. SPC WRF has a few storms moving just SW across Northern and Central Jersey later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 So bluewave looks like anothe missed opportunity for nyc and points east i suppose? From what you just explained and maps you posted not a very good setup for us as of right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 Latest visible loop shows, clouds are beginning to break over Western NJ. But I agree, that the best instability today will be west of the Hudson River. http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/1km.php?loop=1&type=vis®ion=LongIsland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 So bluewave looks like anothe missed opportunity for nyc and points east i suppose? From what you just explained and maps you posted not a very good setup for us as of right now. I just saw the new GFS and it has the instability reaching a little further east now so we will have to watch the radar trends to see how far east the storms extend later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 I just saw the new GFS and it has the instability reaching a little further east now so we will have to watch the radar trends to see how far east the storms extend later. That's pretty good, but we need sun and heating, and fast. Its already noon and clouds are not breaking up that fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 9, 2012 Author Share Posted June 9, 2012 We need to get some instability building south of the frontal zone. So far, the low level moisture was also overdone from the last look I got at the models yesterday morning to what is verifying today. Regardless, we'll have to see if the models elevated cape and surface cape axis can build as forecast. Additionally...the low level helicity forecasts have backed off dramatically. But we could still see a damaging wind and hail threat if we can get enough instability building just south of the front. The visible satellite isn't overly discouraging, with some breaks south of the front. But nothing dramatically great, either. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_PA/anim8vis.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 Went from OVC and 70 to mostly sunny and 77 here in CNJ. Looks like I'm in a decent spot for convection later. Can't say the same for others, but as long as I get storms, that's all that really matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 9, 2012 Author Share Posted June 9, 2012 Went from OVC and 70 to mostly sunny and 77 here in CNJ. Looks like I'm in a decent spot for convection later. Can't say the same for others, but as long as I get storms, that's all that really matters. You're definitely in a good spot. Looking through the visible loop a few times, it's hard to say whether or not the clouds are going to break a little farther north. Either way..we should get some instability building over the next few hours. Here's the SPC SREF MUCAPE forecast at 00z Sunday. That seems to line up well with some of the breaks in the clouds south of the frontal zone and also with a small area of potential for severe weather from Northeast PA arcing southeast into Central NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 You're definitely in a good spot. Looking through the visible loop a few times, it's hard to say whether or not the clouds are going to break a little farther north. Either way..we should get some instability building over the next few hours. Here's the SPC SREF MUCAPE forecast at 00z Sunday. That seems to line up well with some of the breaks in the clouds south of the frontal zone and also with a small area of potential for severe weather from Northeast PA arcing southeast into Central Looking at visible, there will be a short period of breaks of sun and then clouds look to dominate again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 Some sun and clouds with temps near 80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 I'm getting sunshine through the window but it's still overcast-ish. Hopefully it breaks up. Temp is 78. Edit: it appears to be clearing out a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 Look at the visible satellite. The sun breaks looks temporary. There is a solid cloud deck approaching and unless it breaks up, most of our area should be solidly clouded in the rest of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 9, 2012 Author Share Posted June 9, 2012 Clouds are trying to thin out pretty fast over Central/Northeast PA. We'll have to see if this can work southeast. The forecast models don't have the MU/MLCAPE axis building until 18-00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 Clouds are trying to thin out pretty fast over Central/Northeast PA. We'll have to see if this can work southeast. The forecast models don't have the MU/MLCAPE axis building until 18-00z. Current visible satellite to me is showing clouds are gonna have a very hard time breaking up around the next several hours around the NYC area. Points west look good but not east. Not too enthusiastic right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 9, 2012 Author Share Posted June 9, 2012 Current visible satellite to me is showing clouds are gonna have a very hard time breaking up around the next several hours around the NYC area. Points west look good but not east. Not too enthusiastic right now This threat was focused on areas west and southwest of NYC to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 ehh the dynamics stink anyway maybe areas of sun get a weak storm big deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 This threat was focused on areas west and southwest of NYC to begin with. I know that lol. Was just saying that regarding how the clouds break up and warming can take place we could maybe atleast see some action later in the form of some marginal strong storms. I mean not to the degree that west of us may experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 ehh the dynamics stink anyway maybe areas of sun get a weak storm big deal The dynamics for our area, yes not the best. West of us do have a decent shot of getting some severe storms that may produce some hail and damaging winds. Not a bad setup just not the best over the entire area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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