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June 2012 Severe Weather/Convection Discussion


earthlight

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New SPC Day 1 outlook shuts out the entire NYC metro area in regards to severe weather. The fact that there have been over 500 reports of severe storm reports over the Mid-Atlantic and that they are primed for more severe storms tomorrow reminds me of the February 6, 2010 mega blizzard that clobbered the Mid-Atlantic while leaving us hanging dry.

I'll never forget 27" in Philly and nothing in Manhattan

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looks like that next MCS right now is a bit further north than the one that just went through the mid atlantic yesterday. proabably splitting hairs but i thought it was worth noting, looks like they'll be in the crosshairs again today :facepalm:

I think it's still destined to dive SE. But if development remains slow, it might at least clip us.

Edit: Actually, I'm starting wonder if this complex will really get going, at all. The derecho last night, left so much subsidence behind it, that it might not become so severe.

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Phail? Fail? Anyway yea your right today just doesnt look too promising at all. Who knows maybe we'll get some rogue storms later. After today looks like wednesday-thursday time period will be the time to watch for more severe potential, lets hope mother nature shows us some love this time

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That is insane for anywhere outside of the plains.

Too bad today looks like a phail. Oh well.

Yeah, very extreme pattern.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

IAD 00Z SNDG SHOWS AN 850 MB TEMP OF +24. OUR SCIENCE OFFICER DID

A STUDY OF 52 YRS OF DC AREA SNDGS - A TEMP THIS WARM AT 850 HAS

ONLY OCCURRED 6 OTHER TIMES. OBVIOUSLY W/ APRCHG LN...DAMAGE REPORTS

COMING OUT OF W.V. ...AND AMT OF CAPE IN THE MID ATLC WE ARE

CONCERNED W/ THIS LN.

SVR TSTM WTCH ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA DUE TO APRCHG LN NEAR

THE OH/WV BORDER.

DCA BROKE THEIR ALL-TIME JUN TEMP RECORD THIS AFTN...REACHING

104. THE PRVS RECORD WAS 102 SET LAST YR ON 6/9. OBVIOUSLY THIS

ALSO BROKE THE DAILY RECORD...WHICH WAS 101 SET IN 1934. IAD ALSO

BROKE DAILY AND MONTHLY RECORDS W/ A READING OF 102. BWI DID NOT

BREAK A RECORD...6/29/34 REACHED 105. INNER HARBOR REACHED

106..BUT RECORDS ARE NOT KEPT FOR THAT SITE.

DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE U60S/L70S OVERNIGHT...KEEPING THE

HIGH HUMIDITY IN PLACE AS TEMPS DECREASE ONLY INTO THE U70S-L80S.

SOME OF THE METRO AREAS AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE INNER/MIDDLE OF

DC-BALT - THE HEAT INDICIES WILL NOT DROP MUCH BELOW 90S EVEN

OVERNIGHT. IF THE MCS AND ACCOMPANYING TSTM ACTIVITY MOVE

THROUGH...IT MAY SERVE TO DROP TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES BUT THE

DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN THE SAME...POTENTIALLY HIGHER AFTER PERIODS

OF RAIN.

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after seeing all the people without power in 110 degree heat, I think I am with you now, pass.

Didn't realize how much damage there was. DO NOT WANT.

Finally some sense of reason...maybe the 15 yr old posters on here who do not own homes or do things would want that damage, but adults realize it is just disastrous.

Beach day today, hoping for clear skies...seems like dewpoints are lower than progged yesterday, so might be comfortable out there.

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Friend down in southern NJ says the damage is incredible, hundreds of trees down and no power anywhere.

2 fatalities in NJ at a campground. 2 boys, ages 2 & 7 killed when a tree fell on them. Sad to hear.

Smokeeater from out forum has been up since the storm cutting trees and running fire calls. He said its surreal.

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looks like that next MCS right now is a bit further north than the one that just went through the mid atlantic yesterday. proabably splitting hairs but i thought it was worth noting, looks like they'll be in the crosshairs again today :facepalm:

Feel bad for these people man, 2 nights in a row of that?? Ugh. I would just go to downtown DC and get a hotel for the next few nights so that I would have AC and fresh food.

This system looks to go further south than last night's storm i think, going down to NC

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2 fatalities in NJ at a campground. 2 boys, ages 2 & 7 killed when a tree fell on them. Sad to hear.

Smokeeater from out forum has been up since the storm cutting trees and running fire calls. He said its surreal.

Ah man, that really sucks. That is why i was scared ****less when that MCS tore through upstate NY last summer while i was camping out in the woods, should have gone into my car during the storm, but 2 and 7 yr olds, that is heartbreaking.

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Grabbed this from my area, just wanted to share! ( 1st time getting a good shot with a more advanced SLR camera.)

DSC01612.jpg

Looks like there was alot of cloud to cloud lightning, as people said alot of lightning, not much thunder...as this shot shows...beautiful display.

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Sounds like the worst storms since June 2008 for the MA. I'm a T-storm fan, but I think we should be happy that derecho didn't affect our area, as it causes more headache than enjoyment. Between the day after clean-up process, no power, damage, etc, although admittedly part of me would like to experience something like that. Highest winds I've witnessed are about 55-60mph. Must have looked like a weak hurricane for a short time; the aftermath certainly is similar.

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Sounds like the worst storms since June 2008 for the MA. I'm a T-storm fan, but I think we should be happy that derecho didn't affect our area, as it causes more headache than enjoyment. Between the day after clean-up process, no power, damage, etc, although admittedly part of me would like to experience something like that. Highest winds I've witnessed are about 55-60mph. Must have looked like a weak hurricane for a short time; the aftermath certainly is similar.

having been through the march 2010 noreaster, irene, then the october snow bomb, Im set on any more destruction around these parts.

Yesterday morning's storms were perfect, great lightnining, booming thunder, quick down pour and then over for golf time, lol.

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I was in an 80 mph wind gust back in 95 from a strong cold front but to be without power with temperatures this hot would just be unbearable. At least after Irene temps were comfortable for the most part which made having no AC at least tolerable.

Sounds like the worst storms since June 2008 for the MA. I'm a T-storm fan, but I think we should be happy that derecho didn't affect our area, as it causes more headache than enjoyment. Between the day after clean-up process, no power, damage, etc, although admittedly part of me would like to experience something like that. Highest winds I've witnessed are about 55-60mph. Must have looked like a weak hurricane for a short time; the aftermath certainly is similar.

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I was in the philly thread talking....and it just seem this was poorly forcast...models did not have a good handel on it and nws did not seem to.bite on it until late...

I was kind of shock to see it made it up to snj....facebook friends on lbi said worse they ever seen.

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That was almost like a separate complex that seemed to intensify as it moved east from PA. But yeah no watches up and it was after midnight at that point so certainly few would have been expecting it. It's a shame 2 children died when a tree fell on their tent.

I was in the philly thread talking....and it just seem this was poorly forcast...models did not have a good handel on it and nws did not seem to.bite on it until late...

I was kind of shock to see it made it up to snj....facebook friends on lbi said worse they ever seen.

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I was in the philly thread talking....and it just seem this was poorly forcast...models did not have a good handel on it and nws did not seem to.bite on it until late...

I was kind of shock to see it made it up to snj....facebook friends on lbi said worse they ever seen.

I was not following the individual forecasts down there, so I am not sure how much warning they had etc.

It was clearly a very potent system coming out of the midwest. The soundings were outrageous, as posted above.

I am sure there is always the "if we say armagedon is coming and it doesnt, no one will listen to us" factor when the NWS is putting out forecasts warnings etc. I feel very badly for all affected by this.

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Here is the initial Day 1 Outlook from yesterday overlayed with the severe weather reports. It is important to note that any area east of West Virginia was not included in 5% wind or hail probabilities either. Later outlooks extended the slight risk east, but still nowhere near as close as necessary to cover what would eventually be a tremendous coverage of wind damage. The 20z outlook upgraded to Moderate Risk.

day1otlk_v_20120629_1200.gif

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