psv88 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Tomorrows event has virtually no similarities to what happened this morning, completely different synoptic setup. But you can see the SPC SREF trying to pin an area of probabilities for severe weather -- agreeing with the synoptic discussion we had earlier regarding the mid level height field -- and targeting the Northern Mid-Atlantic near the M/D Line including Southern PA and extending down towards the DC Metro. looks we are are in the 2.5%-5% severe risk box, but judging from the Plains today, seems like these bad boys have a mind of their own this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Even if tomorrow night's event fails to deliver, looks like we have more chances next week, as per Upton. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...THIS APPEARS TO BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WEST AND NW WIND FLOW ALOFT CONTS AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE MOVES EAST TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A SERIES OF MCS MOVING SE DOWN THE RIDGE. IN A MOIST MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS...HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE. BECAUSE OF HIGH FCST UNCERTAINTY...ONLY 20 PCT POPS ARE IN THE FCST FOR NOW. STAY TUNED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 18z NAM way south for tomorrow While the Euro is north . Interesting differences . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 this is a more favorable pattern for us than the one this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 okx: WEST AND NW WIND FLOW ALOFT CONTS AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE MOVES EAST TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A SERIES OF MCS MOVING SE DOWN THE RIDGE. IN A MOIST MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS...HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE. BECAUSE OF HIGH FCST UNCERTAINTY...ONLY 20 PCT POPS ARE IN THE FCST FOR NOW. STAY TUNED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 This is one of the most intense derechos that we have seen in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 this is a more favorable pattern for us than the one this week Agree, and I think July could be (potentially) active for us given the mean ridge placement in the central US, with a ring of fire set up from the northern Lakes into the Northeast. Taken verbatim, I'd say the above map is more favorable for SNE and NY state. Let's just hope we don't miss to the south and north of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 30, 2012 Author Share Posted June 30, 2012 Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted June 30, 2012 Share Posted June 30, 2012 Wow lets hope we can get some of that action towards our area earthlight, or this will be an utter waste of an absolutely great setup right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 30, 2012 Share Posted June 30, 2012 that MCS is taking shape across the midwest for tomorrow. Boy did that one that started chicago today haul as s. And check out those cells in southern PA ahead of the main complex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted June 30, 2012 Share Posted June 30, 2012 Wow I'd sacrifice any snowfall that we get during the next winter in order to be in the focal point of those dots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted June 30, 2012 Share Posted June 30, 2012 I'd sacrifice any snowfall that we get during the next winter in order to be in the focal point of those dots. minus the tornadic activity tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted June 30, 2012 Share Posted June 30, 2012 grlevel3 showing that a tornado warning is in effect for sublette, west of chicago for a storm capable of producing a tornado. also numerous reports of hail 1 inch or larger so far edit: 1 1/2 inch hail reported by trained spotter in new bedford, illinois Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted June 30, 2012 Share Posted June 30, 2012 So what does the 12z and 18z NOGAPS, UK and GFS models depict for this MCS? Does it place it further north than the 18z NAM like the 12z Euro? I can't access them since my Pentium II processor is not capable of running them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted June 30, 2012 Share Posted June 30, 2012 PAGE,VA....trees down, possible roof blown off structure. confirmed by trained spotter. grlevel3 scan also showing a wind gust to 70 mph in albemarle,va Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted June 30, 2012 Share Posted June 30, 2012 direct hit on the radar site... wow that is a nasty tstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 30, 2012 Share Posted June 30, 2012 My buddy called me from Virgina, he was driving back to WV where he lives in the panhandle...said he had never seen a storm like that, trees down everywhere, roads closed, passed a shed on fire from a direct lightning strike. He works for the FAA as an ATC so he knows bad weather when he sees it. Folks, i just dont get how anyone can want this type of weather. Destruction and injury. stay away please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 30, 2012 Share Posted June 30, 2012 Man this is one monster derecho -- severe warnings stretching from sern PA down to Raleigh NC. It looks like I might even get clipped with some non severe T-storms here in CNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 30, 2012 Share Posted June 30, 2012 Yeah this one rivals and might even surpass the September 98 event...just further south Man this is one monster derecho -- severe warnings stretching from sern PA down to Raleigh NC. It looks like I might even get clipped with some non severe T-storms here in CNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted June 30, 2012 Share Posted June 30, 2012 If this one is clipping C NJ with non severe, perhaps this bodes well for us on the northern fringe tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted June 30, 2012 Share Posted June 30, 2012 People from MD/VA are having a conniption on my twitter timeline. The weather fan in me is secretly jealous. I've never seen a storm move so fast, it's surreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 30, 2012 Share Posted June 30, 2012 If this one is clipping C NJ with non severe, perhaps this bodes well for us on the northern fringe tomorrow? SREFS, which supposedly nailed the precip this morning, keep the majority of the rain south, and highlight maybe .1 in our area, so maybe... http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=06%2F29%2F2012+21UTC&rname=PRECIP+MEANSPRD&pname=precip_p06&pdesc=&model=SREF&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=Loop+All&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Note that the SREFS, NAM and GFS have all come way south with tomorrow morning's event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 30, 2012 Share Posted June 30, 2012 Greetings from Atlantic County NJ. Waiting it out here to see just how bad it gets. Worst cells as of now look to miss me just to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted June 30, 2012 Share Posted June 30, 2012 Greetings from Atlantic County NJ. Waiting it out here to see just how bad it gets. Worst cells as of now look to miss me just to the south. But the best weather is about 100 miles and beyond to the north and northeast, where the dps have dropped into the upper 40's to mid 50's, i.e. BOSTON PTCLDY 78 50 37 W9 29.64R WORCESTER PTCLDY 74 49 41 W8 29.70R NANTUCKET CLEAR 69 67 93 W9 29.66R PROVIDENCE PTCLDY 77 61 57 NW5 29.67R HARTFORD MOCLDY 76 51 41 CALM 29.67R ALBANY MOCLDY 69 56 62 CALM 29.68R Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 30, 2012 Share Posted June 30, 2012 Grabbed this from my area, just wanted to share! ( 1st time getting a good shot with a more advanced SLR camera.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 30, 2012 Author Share Posted June 30, 2012 this is a more favorable pattern for us than the one this week A NW-SE ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL EXIST FROM THE NRN PLAINS SEWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC DAYS 4-6. PRIMARY ZONE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR ALONG NRN AND ERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND IN VICINITY OF THE NW-SE ORIENTED BOUNDARY. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS AND MCSS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITHIN NWLY FLOW REGIME ANYWHERE FROM THE DAKOTAS SEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS. HOWEVER...PREDICTABILITY OF 30% OR GREATER SEVERE THREAT AREAS APPEARS LIMITED BY TIMING OF MCVS AND POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF ONGOING CONVECTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickD2011 Posted June 30, 2012 Share Posted June 30, 2012 There's some nice "heat lightning" on the southern horizon, otherwise nothing to report Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyg Posted June 30, 2012 Share Posted June 30, 2012 Just walked out on my deck and saw an anvil crawler, shrouded in clouds for the most part, to my south. I then waited like 5 minutes staring in the same direction and saw nothing. That was strange... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted June 30, 2012 Share Posted June 30, 2012 New SPC Day 1 outlook shuts out the entire NYC metro area in regards to severe weather. The fact that there have been over 500 reports of severe storm reports over the Mid-Atlantic and that they are primed for more severe storms tomorrow reminds me of the February 6, 2010 mega blizzard that clobbered the Mid-Atlantic while leaving us hanging dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted June 30, 2012 Share Posted June 30, 2012 A NW-SE ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL EXIST FROM THE NRN PLAINS SEWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC DAYS 4-6. PRIMARY ZONE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR ALONG NRN AND ERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND IN VICINITY OF THE NW-SE ORIENTED BOUNDARY. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS AND MCSS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITHIN NWLY FLOW REGIME ANYWHERE FROM THE DAKOTAS SEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS. HOWEVER...PREDICTABILITY OF 30% OR GREATER SEVERE THREAT AREAS APPEARS LIMITED BY TIMING OF MCVS AND POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF ONGOING CONVECTION. So, in a nutshell, the SPC thinks that the same areas being pounded by severe storms these past two days will get the action again next week while we remain in the screw zone? Do you agree with their assessment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.